Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 12 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 12 Seahawks vs. Washington Football Team Monday Night Football matchup.
Week 12 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks
In the midst of their worst season in nearly a decade, the Seahawks have looked like a shell of their former selves, especially on offense, since Russell Wilson returned to the field after the team’s Week 9 bye. Wilson is clearly still bothered by the hand injury that required surgery earlier in the season, and he has been highly sub-par as a thrower in his first two games back. That has led to Seattle averaging a league-worst 6.5 points per game over the last two weeks. But now he faces a Washington team that has regressed defensively as much as Seattle has offensively. With both teams struggling mightily of late, this matchup could end up being a much uglier game than many expect, but poor execution, particularly on defense, can always bring fantasy gamers some sneaky shootout potential. This matchup has an especially large range of outcomes, making it an exciting one game slate for which to build lineups.
Top NFL DFS Options
Awesemo’s projections give Russell Wilson ($11,000 DraftKings/$15,500 FanDuel) the lower projection of the two quarterbacks heading into this game. The difference between their projects is less than half of a point, but it speaks to the dysfunction of the Seattle offense since Wilson has returned to the lineup. During that span the Seahawks are 25th in the NFL in points per play and have been outscored 40-13. However, it is possible Wilson will get Seattle back to scoring 25 or more points, like they did in three of its first four games. He has produced tournament-winning scores when healthy, but if he plays anywhere near the level he has in Weeks 10 and 11, Wilson is a stay-away option. That high variance only compounds for Wilson’s primary receiving options, particularly Tyler Lockett ($10,200 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel), who typically relies on deep passes and Wilson’s accuracy to accumulate fantasy points. Lockett is a fine tournament option and is always an outside threat to command double-digit targets, but his salary is higher than D.K. Metcalf’s ($8,800 DraftKings/$13,500 FanDuel) on DraftKings, making Lockett. On the other hand, Metcalf looks like the significantly stronger play. Lockett and Metcalf have combined to receive 46% of the Seahawks’ targets and a staggering 71% of the team’s air yards since Wilson’s return in Week 10.
Meanwhile, Washington’s Taylor Heinicke ($9,800 DraftKings/$14,500 FanDuel) is arguably the safer option, as he is coming off a highly efficient game against Carolina where he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions on a season-high 9.4 yards per pass attempt. Heinicke has now topped 8 yards per attempt in 60% of his starts, and he has done it twice since the team’s Week 9 bye. Heinicke’s 4.5 carries per game also rank top 10 at his position, giving him a solid rushing floor. He has topped 20 yards rushing in 50% of starts this year. Heinicke’s efficient play has boosted Terry McLaurin ($10,600 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel), who is averaging 7.5 targets and 81 yards receiving during that same span. McLaurin is the unquestioned primary target in the Washington offense and has commanded over 28% of the team’s targets this season, making him far and away the top option in the Washington receiving corps.
Eric MacPherson pinpointed McLaurin as a possible pay-up option on tonight’s showdown slate in his Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Football Showdown Spotlight article. Check out all of his favorite NFL DFS picks today.
While both defenses have been easier to attack via passing rather than rushing, neither of the running backs look like must-play options, but Antonio Gibson ($8,600 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel), unsurprisingly, has the highest projection of any back on the slate. Gibson ranks third in the NFL in total evaded tackles, and while his six total touchdowns (16th most) might look like he has been lucky in that category, his 3.5% touchdown rate is actually sustainable. Gibson is a highly efficient rusher who only receives 2.3 targets per game, so he relies on touchdowns for slate-altering scores. However, he still looks like a more viable option than Alex Collins ($6,600 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel), though Collins should see a bulk of the workload with Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer likely inactive in this game. That means that only DeeJay Dallas ($5,200 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) is available to spell Collins. In cash games the lowest-salary every-down back is almost always a must-play, but in tournaments Collins is a tougher bet, with a 6% chance of being the optimal Captain on DraftKings.
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Volatile, Salary-Saving Plays
J.D. McKissic ($7,200 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) stands in the way of Gibson achieving bell-cow status, as he continues to play on nearly 50% of Washington’s snaps and has a 14% target share this season. With the number of injuries in the Washington receiving corps behind McLaurin, McKissic has established himself as the No. 2 receiving option in Washington in recent weeks. However, that could change with Logan Thomas ($4,800 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) slated to return to play. In three games this season, Thomas saw 100% of the team’s snaps, 16% of the team’s targets and 38% of the team’s red-zone targets, the highest rate of any Washington player during that span. According to Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool, no Washington skill position player has a higher leverage score than Thomas on DraftKings, indicating his chances of being in the optimal lineup well outpace his projected ownership.
With so much emphasis placed on each offense’s top options, every other player in each respective passing game should be considered a dart throw at best. DeAndre Carter ($5,600 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) has had a few productive games while Washington has dealt with myriad injuries, but with Thomas and Curtis Samuel ($5,000 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) expected back in the lineup for Washington, expect Carter to fade back into an auxiliary role. Adam Humphries ($2,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) should also see his snaps reduce, with Samuel likely playing many of his snaps from the slot, where Humphries typically lines up. Awesemo prefers Gerald Everett ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) to Washington’s auxiliary weapons, but Everett still loses plenty of snaps to Will Dissly ($600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), as both have played on over 64% this season.
The Bottom Line
If this matchup played out 1,000 times, there would be shootouts since the star power at receiver is enough to push this game well over the middling 47-point Vegas total. However, the more likely outcome is that both teams will take a more conservative approach, which can often lead to games staying under their projected totals. With so much uncertainty surrounding Wilson’s health and Heinicke no guarantee to produce consistently, gamers can lean on the kickers, as both Joey Slye ($4,200 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) and Jason Myers ($4,000 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) are playable in tournaments. Even the defenses, despite the mediocrity through much of the season, have a solid chance at being an optimal Captain play. Awesemo particularly likes the Washington defense ($4,400 DraftKings), which has the fifth-highest DraftKings leverage score on the slate.
Week 12 Monday Night Football Prediction: Seattle 19, Washington 17
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