Adam Pfeifer’s 2020 Fantasy Football Rankings

The NFL Draft has come to an end and we finally have landing spots for all of the rookies we have been scouting and touting for months. I had a fun time doing live blogs for days one and two of the draft, which you can find here. But now that the players have found homes, we can start placing them in certain spots with the veterans in our rankings. I have been waiting for this draft to end so I could start my 2020 positional rankings, which at the moment are extremely interesting. Of course, these are going to change over the course of the summer and will be updated until the season starts. And yes, I do believe we will have an NFL season. But without further ado, here are my initial rankings for the 2020 Fantasy Football season.

Quarterback

[table id=1357 /]

Notes

  • Dak Prescott enjoyed a career year in 2019, ranking second in the league in passing yards (4,902) and fourth in touchdown passes (30), finishing as the QB2 in fantasy behind only Lamar Jackson. Prescott was sharp, completing 48.7 percent of his deep balls, good for the second-best rate among qualified signal-callers. He was sixth in the league in fantasy points per drop back (0.50) and his rushing played a big role, as Prescott was top-eight in red zone carries (14), rushing yards (277), rushing yards per game (17.3) and rushing touchdowns (three). Prescott did all of this despite his pass catchers leading the league in dropped passes, averaging nearly three per game. He also just added CeeDee Lamb.
  • In Weeks 1 through 9 last year (before getting hurt), Matthew Stafford ranked fourth in passing yards (2,449), second in touchdowns (19), first in average depth of target (11.4), fifth in 300-yard games (fourth) and was the QB6 in fantasy football. He has a great group of weapons as well as a defense that should force him to throw a good bit.
  • Baker Mayfield and the Browns underwhelmed last year, but consider him a post-hype sleeper. Cleveland will have a much better offensive system this year, and the team added tight end Austin Hooper and offensive linemen Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills.
  • Gardner Minshew was fifth among all signal-callers in rushing yards and carries per game while averaging a healthy 0.40 fantasy points per dropback. Jacksonville added pass-happy offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, though their defense continues to lose key players.

Running Back

[table id=1358 /]

Notes

  • After going off on Thursday night in his first game with the Cardinals, Kenyan Drake never looked back, ranking fifth in the league in rushing yards (652), second in rushing touchdowns (eight), fourth in 100-yard games (three), sixth in carries inside the 5-yard line (eight) and fourth in fantasy points. During that span, Drake averaged a healthy 18.8 touches and 3.5 receptions per game.
  • If you watched Todd Gurley last year, you can’t come away thinking he suddenly stinks at football. He was top-20 in terms of yards after contact and was 13th in broken tackles. The big difference, however, was the lack of big runs, as Gurley was 47th among 50 qualified backs in PFF’s breakaway run rate. He had just eight carries of 15 yards or more. Gurley was also just 21st in yards before contact per rush (2.2), as the Rams run-blocking unit took a massive step back in 2019. 21 percent of the Los Angeles carries were stuffed at the line of scrimmage, good (or bad) for the sixth-worst rate in the NFL. The move to Atlanta might actually benefit Gurley if the offensive line can remain healthy. He is a borderline top-15 back with top-10 upside.
  • The Bucs didn’t take one of the higher-rated backs from this class but they did address the position with Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a north-south runner who forced 54 missed tackles last year, according to PFF. Over 700 of his rushing yards came after contac. He is also a very fluid and natural pass catcher and a very good pass blocker, which is massive. We know Ronald Jones has had issues in pass pro since entering the league, so much so that it led to him being benched on multiple occasions last season. And now that Tampa has Tom Brady under center, being able to pass block is going to be more crucial than ever.

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Wide Receiver

[table id=1359 /]

Notes

  • Davante Adams was targeted on 18.1 percent of his snaps in 2019, the third-highest rate among qualified receivers. With a massive need at the receiver position, the Packers addressed it by signing Devin Funchess and failed to draft a wideout in perhaps the deepest class we’ve seen in years. After seeing a massive 30.3 percent target share last year, look for Adams to hit a similar mark in 2020.
  • There is a good chance I’ll be higher than most on Deebo Samuel. The sophomore was explosive in his rookie campaign, ranking second among all receivers in yards after the catch per reception (8.3) and 10th in average separation (3.2). The 49ers didn’t draft an alpha receiver, just Brandon Aiyuk, another big YAC guy, while Emmanuel Sanders is now in New Orleans. From Week 10 on last year, Samuel was sixth among receivers in fantasy points per snap (0.32) and the WR9 in all of fantasy during that span.
  • A lot of people seem to be fading Stefon Diggs after the move to Buffalo. I get some concerns; the fit is interesting, as Diggs is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. In 2019, he paced all wideouts with six deep touchdown catches, while his 28 deep targets were the fifth most in football. We know Josh Allen has a cannon but has had issues with accuracy, as he was outside the top-30 passers in deep completion rate last year. If Allen improves in that department, Diggs could have another very strong season. I view Diggs is a high-end WR3 this season.

Tight End

[table id=1360 /]

Notes

  • Jack Doyle is a very good player who I expect will be fantasy relevant in 2020. For starters, Eric Ebron is now in Pittsburgh. In weeks 1 through 12 of last season (when Ebron was healthy), Doyle ranked 24th among all tight ends in routes run (227), averaging 18.9 per game. However, during the final five weeks of the season (Ebron was hurt), Doyle ran 139 routes, averaging 27.8 per contest. We also saw Doyle’s red zone usage climb with Ebron sidelined last year, as he saw nearly 20 percent of the team’s red zone looks. Now he has Philip Rivers, who has a good track record with tight ends.
  • I truly believe that the Falcons have big plans for new tight end Hayden Hurst. After losing Hooper to the Browns, Atlanta immediately traded a second- and fifth-round pick for Hurst, which tells me that he was their contingency plan all along. Hurst, a former first-round pick, hauled in 30-of-40 targets last year and has plenty of potential. It was a smaller sample size but Hurst, at 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, finished sixth among all tight ends in yards per pass route (2.44) and seventh in yards per target (8.7).

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