Week 10 of the NFL season is here, and that means’s were over halfway through the NFL DFS regular season. But that doesn’t mean we can’t giveaway some FREE NFL Daily Fantasy Picks from Awesemo’s premium grades and values, for your daily fantasy lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft, including Travis Kelce and Cooper Kupp!
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Don’t forget to check out On The Contrary with special guest CJ Kaltenbach aka The Seige joining Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker and Chris Spags to discuss the Week 10 NFL DFS slate.
NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Grades: A, Values: A Initially I wasn’t planning to go here – with the very real threat of a blowout in the cards given that the Bengals have benched Andy Dalton in favour of 24-year-old backup rookie Ryan Finley –  but Awesemo’s projections love Lamar Jackson. Initial crunches on every site give you 90+% exposure across the board. Of course it helps that Jackson lit up these Bengals earlier this season to the tune of 152 yards on the ground. The Bengals are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and the Ravens are implied for the fourth highest total on the slate (27.5 points). With his rushing upside, Jackson makes for a great cash play with a safe floor and big-time upside. For GPPs, you might only want to stack him up with one pass-catcher. Take your pick from the Ravens side of things – the Bengals are terrible against every opposing position.
NFL DFS Picks: Running Back
Alvin Kamara: DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo: Grades: A, Values: B | FantasyDraft: Grade: A, Value: A The New Orleans Saints are coming off a bye and that means formerly injured RB is a full go for a home matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Alvin Kamara was a full participant in practice on Thursday, so that bodes well for his usage in this one. How heavy you go on Kamara really depends on whether or not you think the Falcons can keep this even a little bit close. It’s easy to envision a narrative where the Saints get up big and rest Kamara, opting to spell him with Latavius Murray without missing a beat. The Falcons rank 22nd in DVOA to opposing RBs and Kamara’s usage isn’t quite at the bell-cow back rate that we like out of this pric Side note on the Falcons defence: I had to do a double take on this one, but the Atlanta Falcons have been ELITE at suppressing receptions to opposing running backs, ranking second in the league behind only the San Francisco 49ers this season. Those same Falcons allowed a league worst 117, 110 and 109 receptions to opposing RBs over the past three seasons. Dead last for three straight years to second best – that doesn’t happen very often. There were rumours during the offseason Quinn wanted to address the weaknesses in his defence, possibly by switching to a 3-4. That hasn’t come to fruition, but there have to have been some schematic changes. So if you’re like me and are slow to disavow yourself of long-held fantasy football beliefs, it’s best to assume the Falcons are possibly good at limiting catches to opposing backs.
NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp: DraftKings, FantasyDraft: Grades: A, Values: A | FanDuel, Yahoo: Grades: A, Values: B, C With Brandin Cooks out this week, does Cooper Kupp becomes even more of a focal point in this Rams offence? I’m not sure that’s possible. A few Kupp stats for you:
- 5th in the NFL in fantasy points
- 2nd in targets (just one game with less than eight)
- 3rd in receptions per game
- 9th in fantasy points per target
- 4th in target share (28%)
The price point isn’t cheap, but you are getting some savings off other top-priced WRs without much of a downgrade in upside or floor. The majority of Kupp’s targets and receptions have come from the left slot, where the Steelers rank 19th in DVOA at defending that portion of the field, compared to elite numbers everywhere else on the field.
NFL DFS Picks: Tight End
Travis Kelce: DraftKings, FantasyDraft: Grades: A, Value: B | FanDuel, Yahoo: Grades: A, Values: C We haven’t seen much of elite slate-breaking Travis Kelce this season, but his price across the industry is the lowest it’s been in over a year. Of course, pricing is based closely off Vegas lines and that KC Chiefs implied total has risen by four points since news broke that Patrick Mahomes is going to return. As well, the price is down because Kelce only has two TD receptions this season (compared to six at this point last season) and we all know what happens with extreme TD totals: regression. After being without Mahomes for 2.5 weeks, Kelce still leads the NFL yards, targets and routes run. The Tennessee Titans rank 24th in DVOA against the TE position this season.
Cheap options
It’s not pretty, but Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard have been ruled out for this week’s matchup against the Jets. Rhett Ellison led the team in routes run and posted a snap count above 90% earlier this year when Engram missed. He’s the bare min. Jonnu Smith will get more ownership, with Delanie Walker out. But he’s just a much bigger threat than someone like Ellison. Smith is an athletic freak who is starting to produce after tantalizing NFL DFSers, continually flashing unrealized potential. Â
