(54.5) Minnesota Vikings (30.5) @ Detroit Lions (24)
Quick-Hitter Game Summary:
- This game has the second-highest Vegas total on the main slate. Assuming Matthew Stafford is healthy enough to play, there should be scoring on both sides of the ball, but the Vikings seem like the easiest bet to score 30-plus points of any team on the slate.
- Dalvin Cook (family emergency) is out for the Vikings, and backup Alexander Mattison is questionable, likely leading the Vikings to focus much more on their passing attack.
- Tight end Kyle Rudolph was placed on injured reserve, leaving Irv Smith as the primary pass-catching tight end, and the clear third option in the Minnesota passing attack.
- D’Andre Swift is a clear value as the 12th-highest salary running back on the slate, but he’s expected to be nearly 20% owned on the main slate. Fantasy gamers in large-field tournaments should take a strong stand on Swift, choosing to be way over, or way under, the field.
- If Stafford plays this weekend, T.J. Hockenson and Marvin Jones should have plenty of opportunities, and both look like values compared to salary-based expectations. Hockenson has a projection inside the top-3 tight ends.
- Justin Jefferson needs 111 receiving yards to break the rookie record for receiving yards in a season. That’s extremely attainable against a Lions defense that ranks bottom-10 in the league against primary wide receivers.
Data Deep-Dive:
All Graphs Reflect Last Five Weeks of Data, Click Graphs to Enlarge
NFL DFS Upside Analysis:
Significant takeaways: From a pace-of-play perspective, this matchup doesn’t jump off the page, especially with Lions being one of the most conservative offenses in the NFL over the last five weeks. But both Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins rank above-average in per-drive and per-play efficiency, which should lead to plenty of sustained drives and plenty of opportunities for fantasy points.
Passing and Pace
Why look at passing at pace? Teams that play faster and pass more than average tend to score more fantasy points. When both teams play aggressively, it often creates a game environment perfect for fantasy scoring. Games have a higher probability of going over their Vegas total as well. Ideally, we’re seeking matchups where both teams are in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below (see the chart’s caption for more details).
Quarterback Efficiency
Why examine quarterback efficiency? Sustained drives in the NFL rely on efficiency at the quarterback position, so I’ve identified my three favorite performance indicators for assessing quarterback performance. The three bar charts below (see the graph’s caption for more detail) represent a quarterback’s per-drive efficiency (left bar-chart), per-play efficiency including rushes/scrambles (center) and per-pass efficiency (right). Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.
NFL DFS Player Pool Picker
Significant takeaway: One could make a case for playing every single player in both tables below. The Vikings’ pass attack is in a fantastic spot, with both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen profiling as top-8 wide receivers on the slate. D’Andre Swift is significantly underpriced compared to his expected workload and protected ceiling. And assuming Matthew Stafford starts, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson look like great bets as well.
Minnesota Vikings NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| MIN | Kirk Cousins, QB | #10 | #6 | #9 | #32 | 21.5 Fpts (QB5) |
| MIN | Justin Jefferson, WR | #7 | #7 | #8 | #29 | 18.5 Fpts (WR6) |
| MIN | Alexander Mattison, RB | #15 | #71 | #78 | #25 | 6.5 Fpts (RB43) |
| MIN | Adam Thielen, WR | #9 | #6 | #10 | #30 | 17.5 Fpts (WR8) |
| MIN | Irv Smith Jr., TE | #12 | #4 | #5 | #13 | 12.5 Fpts (TE6) |
Detroit Lions NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| DET | Matthew Stafford, QB | #15 | #22 | #22 | #9 | 12.5 Fpts (QB25) |
| DET | D’Andre Swift, RB | #12 | #8 | #6 | #30 | 19 Fpts (RB7) |
| DET | Marvin Jones Jr., WR | #35 | #19 | #15 | #4 | 15.5 Fpts (WR15) |
| DET | T.J. Hockenson, TE | #7 | #11 | #9 | #16 | 10 Fpts (TE10) |
NFL DFS Skill Position Values: Expected Points
Significant takeaway: Surprisingly, over the past five weeks, Marvin Jones has averaged more expected fantasy points than Adam Thielen. Jones is looking like a value this weekend, especially with a salary outside the top-35 wideouts on the slate. If Alexander Mattison receives 80% of Dalvin Cook‘s workload, he should be an excellent play, as well, especially against a Detroit defense that ranks bottom-3 in the NFL against opposing running backs.
Why examine expected fantasy points? By assigning a value to each play (based on score, down, distance to the goal line, distance to first down, play type, etc.), we can measure not just a player’s workload, but the expected value of that workload using recent league history as a guide. Expected fantasy points should be considered a volume metric. If a player scores more fantasy points (represented by the dots in the bar chart below) than expected, that means the player is either talented or lucky (or both) and may have unsustainable fantasy production based on their usage.
NFL DFS Auxiliary Offensive Players for Large-Field Contests
Minnesota Vikings NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| MIN | Mike Boone, RB | 2% | 23 | #25 | MME-only (if Mattison sits) |
| MIN | Tyler Conklin, TE | 58% | 39 | #13 | Look Elsewhere |
| MIN | Chad Beebe, WR | 35% | 30 | #28 | Look Elsewhere |
| MIN | Ameer Abdullah, RB | 7% | 13 | #25 | MME-only (if Mattison sits) |
| MIN | C.J. Ham, RB | 45% | 17 | #25 | Look Elsewhere |
| MIN | Olabisi Johnson, WR | 24% | 34 | #28 | Look Elsewhere |
Detroit Lions NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| DET | Danny Amendola, WR | 51% | 48 | #7 | Look Elsewhere |
| DET | Mohamed Sanu, WR | 55% | 25 | #19 | MME-only |
| DET | Quintez Cephus, WR | 41% | 25 | #19 | Look Elsewhere |
| DET | Adrian Peterson, RB | 26% | 45 | #30 | Look Elsewhere |
| DET | Kerryon Johnson, RB | 34% | 42 | #30 | Look Elsewhere |
| DET | Jesse James, TE | 42% | 13 | #16 | Look Elsewhere |
| DET | Jamal Agnew, WR | 26% | 12 | #19 | Look Elsewhere |
Final Thoughts
Though the players from this contest will be popular, this is an obvious “build-around” game. The Vikings passing attack should go out with a bang, but don’t forget about Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson on the Detroit side of the ball either. There’s a lot to like here.
Prediction: Vikings 31, Lions 21.
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