(42.5) Miami Dolphins (19.75) @ Buffalo Bills (22.75)
Quick-Hitter Game Summary:
- Miami gets into the playoffs with a win (or a loss by any of Baltimore, Cleveland, or Indianapolis), while the Bills are locked-into the playoff positioning.
- The Dolphins are starting Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, but won’t have Ryan Fitzpatrick to fall back on this weekend, as Fitzpatrick was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and is out for Week 17.
- The Bills are at risk of resting their starters, which would mean off-days for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Pay careful attention to the news from this game leading up to kickoff.
- John Brown was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list, and would be viable as a tournament option assuming Josh Allen plays a full game.
- Myles Gaskin ranks number-one in the NFL among running backs on the main slate in expected fantasy points over the last 5 weeks and is by far the highest-floor option on the Miami offense.
Data Deep-Dive:
All Graphs Reflect Last Five Weeks of Data, Click Graphs to Enlarge
NFL DFS Upside Analysis:
Significant takeaways: If the Bills play their starters, this game could easily go over it’s extremely low Vegas total. But the Vegas line seems to be giving credence to the idea that the Bills have nothing to play for, and that scoring could come at a premium in this matchup with backups on the Buffalo side of the ball.
Passing and Pace
Why look at passing at pace? Teams that play faster and pass more than average tend to score more fantasy points. When both teams play aggressively, it often creates a game environment perfect for fantasy scoring. Games have a higher probability of going over their Vegas total as well. Ideally, we’re seeking matchups where both teams are in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below (see the chart’s caption for more details).
Quarterback Efficiency
Why examine quarterback efficiency? Sustained drives in the NFL rely on efficiency at the quarterback position, so I’ve identified my three favorite performance indicators for assessing quarterback performance. The three bar charts below (see the graph’s caption for more detail) represent a quarterback’s per-drive efficiency (left bar-chart), per-play efficiency including rushes/scrambles (center) and per-pass efficiency (right). Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.
NFL DFS Player Pool Picker
Significant takeaway: Myles Gaskin looks like a clear value play as the tenth-highest salary running back on the slate. Given that DeVante Parker is questionable with a leg injury, and the passing game has limited upside overall with Tagovailoa at the helm, Gaskin is by far the best option on the Miami offense. Mike Gesicki clearly isn’t 100% but his expected projection makes him look like a decent value as well. The Bills may be a stay-away option despite looking like decent plays on paper.
Miami Dolphins NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| MIA | Tua Tagovailoa, QB | #22 | #19 | #15 | #8 | 18 Fpts (QB12) |
| MIA | Myles Gaskin, RB | #10 | #1 | #1 | #13 | 24.5 Fpts (RB2) |
| MIA | DeVante Parker, WR | #31 | #57 | #44 | #7 | 11 Fpts (WR40) |
| MIA | Mike Gesicki, TE | #10 | #5 | #7 | #25 | 14.5 Fpts (TE4) |
Buffalo Bills NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| BUF | Josh Allen, QB | #3 | #1 | #1 | #5 | 23.5 Fpts (QB3) |
| BUF | Stefon Diggs, WR | #4 | #3 | #3 | #27 | 24.5 Fpts (WR3) |
| BUF | Cole Beasley, WR | #19 | #16 | #22 | #13 | 15 Fpts (WR19) |
| BUF | John Brown, WR | #64 | #33 | #13 | #9 | 15.5 Fpts (WR15) |
| BUF | Devin Singletary, RB | #41 | #29 | #35 | #3 | 8 Fpts (RB33) |
| BUF | Zack Moss, RB | #38 | #39 | #40 | #3 | 7 Fpts (RB41) |
NFL DFS Skill Position Values: Expected Points
Significant takeaway: More stats in the plus-category for Myles Gaskin. Stefon Diggs (of course), and John Brown are viable if Josh Allen plays.
Why examine expected fantasy points? By assigning a value to each play (based on score, down, distance to the goal line, distance to first down, play type, etc.), we can measure not just a player’s workload, but the expected value of that workload using recent league history as a guide. Expected fantasy points should be considered a volume metric. If a player scores more fantasy points (represented by the dots in the bar chart below) than expected, that means the player is either talented or lucky (or both) and may have unsustainable fantasy production based on their usage.
NFL DFS Auxiliary Offensive Players for Large-Field Contests
Significant takeaway: Salvon Ahmed will still get run as Miami’s change of pace back, and could easily vulture a touchdown a two from the starter Gaskin. Gabriel Davis should see plenty of run in this contest, especially if Diggs rests for some or all of the game. He’s an appealing value-play at $3,600.
Miami Dolphins NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| MIA | Lynn Bowden, WR | 66% | 40 | #8 | Look Elsewhere |
| MIA | Mack Hollins, WR | 48% | 28 | #10 | Look Elsewhere |
| MIA | Salvon Ahmed, RB | 55% | 91 | #13 | MME-only |
| MIA | Durham Smythe, TE | 47% | 31 | #25 | Look Elsewhere |
| MIA | Isaiah Ford, WR | 64% | 16 | #10 | Look Elsewhere |
| MIA | Adam Shaheen, TE | 38% | 18 | #25 | Look Elsewhere |
Buffalo Bills NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| BUF | Dawson Knox, TE | 63% | 67 | #17 | Look Elsewhere |
| BUF | Gabriel Davis, WR | 81% | 53 | #9 | Value |
| BUF | Isaiah McKenzie, WR | 21% | 3 | #9 | Look Elsewhere |
| BUF | Lee Smith, TE | 32% | 6 | #17 | Look Elsewhere |
Prediction: Dolphins 23, Bills 20
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