Nothing like a week full of injuries to big-name players to shake up our groups going into NFL DFS Week 3! With pandemonium across the league and several major stars hitting the injured reserve list, the slate should be rife with opportunities for value and also loaded with some very chalky plays. With that in mind, its important to keep an eye on the top stacks tool to see where the public is landing when setting your exposures.
Setting these groups will make stacks happen, but you still need to control individual player exposure levels. Some people utilize formulas based on projections, ceiling, leverage against the field and at the position and other metrics, others simply set a global cap at each position. Either approach can be effective, depending on the thought you put into things.
The settings and groups I mention here are exactly what I’m using and have gotten GPP-winning results with already this season. As always, be sure to check back on Sunday for the morning update that will refresh the group recommendations with any news and refinements.
Related NFL DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
- First Look: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel (FREE)
- From the Slot: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades
- The Slant And Go: Big NFL DFS Value In Week 3 As Injuries Plague The League
- NFL Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Picks + Strategy | Colts or Bucs?
NFL DFS – Fantasy Cruncher Groups-Think: Week 3
While something far more complex than it ever needed to be sets my exposure caps per player for me in Excel, I would approach setting global caps by considering the public ownership projection maximums at each position and acting accordingly. At a high-variance position like wide receiver, I want to get a bigger spread across numerous lineups, so I might set my maximum exposure to the top handful of receivers – taking stack values into consideration – at around the maximum player’s exposure and then set the next two tiers of receivers to lower exposures but very heavy randomness to create some mix. At a more volume based position like running back that is consistently more projectable, I would set individual exposures to the top handful of backs, reflecting where I want to be on them as compared to the field and then create a few broad tiers with caps like 15-25%, 5-15% and 1-5% based on expectation.
Last, as I mentioned for a few critical players last week, it is very important that we set exposure caps on any extreme value players. Someone who is expected to get volume at minimum price, for example, needs to be accounted for so that they don’t become the only play in our stacks or run-back spots. If there is one value receiver on a team with several good options, we don’t want to get 45% of the value guy and only small shares of the highly-projected players. Caps and filters will help control this.
Since we’re using the quarterback as our key player, our quarterback caps can double as team stack exposure controls. Make sure to take the time to set them individually, it will help drive your crunches in the right direction.
Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
There were several key changes throughout the slate since the original version ran. I made note of removals, additions and reasons.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one (I’m going back to one here despite Arizona’s eighth-ranked 39 passing attempts per-game. I removed Kenyan Drake from the stack but want to account for lineups getting to him at running back anyway, without tripling-up on the spot accidentally).
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Dan Arnold, Andy Isabella, (Christian Kirk out, Chase Edmonds removed for volume, Andy Isabella added)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola (I don’t need the running back timeshare coming back here)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least two
Group: Julio Jones, Todd Gurley, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Anthony Miller, Darnell Mooney
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least two (the Bills hit big for us last week and I like the spot again this time out. With Josh Allen throwing the ball 40 times per game, there are more than enough targets to support a two-player requirement).
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary (Dawson Knox out; removed Zack Moss based on volume previously, also out)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Malcom Brown, Tyler Higbee
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one (bumping this down to one to account for the difference between high-priced McCaffrey and low-priced Mike Davis in the pass-catching running back role in this offense. We should see most of the Davis plus a second skill player shares that we need naturally, with his overall value on the slate).
Group: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, Mike Davis (obviously McCaffrey has been removed here)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Joshua Kelley (I try to avoid secondary running backs without heavy passing game volume, but Kelley has justified joining the group, he had 23 carries and two receptions on three targets last week).
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky
Setting: At least one (I’ll let Montgomery plus another skill player happen naturally rather than forcing too many lineups that feature the construction)
Group: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Jimmy Graham (I’m borderline on Graham after just one target last week and I removed Tarik Cohen for target reasons, for the moment. This offense isn’t supporting much volume in the passing game, I would rather get it at receivers or the featured back who has seen three targets each of the first two weeks).
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Julio Jones, Todd Gurley, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: At least two (The Bengals lead the league in passing attempts with 48.5 per game. They are throwing a ton of volume to each skill position)
Group: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Giovani Bernard, Drew Sample (Bernard has seen 12 targets in two games; Sample will be the primary tight end in an offense that has targeted the position 21 times in two games)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, Dallas Goedert (I’m not entirely against adding Greg Ward here and would do it in some crunches)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least two
Group: Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Steven Sims Jr., Dontrelle Inman
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Dak Prescott
Setting: At least two
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Opposing Setting: At least one (you can run a batch with this at two and load up on a few full game stacks with the heavy total what should be a shootout)
Group: Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, David Moore (I like Moore’s upside but be certain to set an individual exposure cap so you don’t get him as your return player far too often with his low price; the TE volume in this offense has been low so neither Jimmy Graham nor Will Dissly are included here)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Jeff Driskel (be sure to change this from the injured Drew Lock or you will get no Broncos stacks)
Setting: At least two (it might be smart to make this just one this week)
Group: Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy (Q), Noah Fant, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler (Removed Courtland Sutton and added Hamler; Jeudy expected to go, he was a full practice participant.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Scott Miller
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: At least two (our running backs limiter will split the Johnson and Swift NFL DFS shares for us here)
Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, D’Andre Swift (Golladay returns, Quintez Cephus and Adrian Peterson removed on expected volume in the passing game, they aren’t seeing enough to support NFL DFS production)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake, Larry Fitzgerald, Dan Arnold, Andy Isabella (Kirk and Edmonds removed; Isabella added)
Houston Texans
Key Player: DeShaun Watson
Setting: At least two
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Eric Ebron, James Washington
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Philip Rivers
Setting: At least two
Group: T.Y. Hilton, Nyheim Hines, Jonathan Taylor, Zach Pascal, Michael Pittman Jr. Jack Doyle (Mo Alie-Cox removed, Doyle expected to go. With a limited Doyle returning from injury, this isn’t a great situation potentially splitting would could otherwise be valuable TE targets)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Braxton Berrios, Chris Hogan, Chris Herndon
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page.
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least two
Group: Darren Waller (Q), Josh Jacobs (Q), Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards (Waller and Jacobs are both expected to go after missing practices with various nagging injuries following their Monday game; Ruggs out)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, Rex Burkhead (James White is out again following his family tragedy. Burkead over Michel here for the passing game involvement, he’s the more direct White replacement in the offense)
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert (be sure to change this from Tyrod Taylor)
Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Joshua Kelley
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, Ian Thomas
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least two
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Malcom Brown, Tyler Higbee, Darrell Henderson
Opposing Group: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Devin Singletary, Cole Beasley
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one (we should get plenty of Cook along with Cousins-Thielen and limited Cousins-X stacks without forcing the second spot)
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison, Olabisi Johnson (Johnson added)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Adam Humphries (A.J. Brown out)
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At least two
Group: Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, Rex Burkhead (James White out; Burkhead added)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs III, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: At least two
Group: Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, Devonta Freeman, Â (Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard removed for injuries; Gallman and Freeman were added originally but between the two of them and Dion Lewis the situation is too unpredictable to be comfortably included for NFL DFS purposes)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jeff Wilson, Jerick McKinnon, Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Reed (Kittle out and removed; Reed added)
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: At least one
Group: Braxton Berrios, Chris Hogan, Chris Herndon, Josh Malone (Crowder out and removed; Malone added)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr., Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal (feel free to include your Indy TE of choice, too unpredictable for me, I don’t want to lock in run-it-back zeroes)
Check out the NFL DFS Content Schedule to keep up with all the latest articles, shows, podcasts and whatever else we come up with!
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Carson Wentz
Setting: At least two
Group: Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson, Boston Scott, Dallas Goedert, Greg Ward (Jalen Reagor out)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Tee Higgins, Drew Sample, Giovani Bernard (feel free to leave Bernard out, it’s a very specific needle to thread)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least two
Group: James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Eric Ebron, James Washington, Jaylen Samuels
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Nick Mullens (be sure to change this one as well)
Setting: At least two
Group: Jeff Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Jerick McKinnon, Jordan Reed (Kittle out; Reed added)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Evan Engram (if you have a read on a Giants lead RB you can add him, I do not.)
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least two
Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson, Greg Olsen, David Moore (removing Olsen is fine here, volume to the TE in this offense has been limited but Olsen has run 47 routes and received five targets to Will Dissly’s 18 routes and three targets)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least two
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Scott Miller, (Godwin back; Watson removed; Ronald Jones removed; Gronkowski removed)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler, Tim Patrick
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least two
Group: Derrick Henry, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Adam Humphries (A.J. Brown out; one could argue for including tight end Anthony Firsker here, he would be my choice over receiver Kalif Raymond just on previous volume, but neither projects particularly well and I’m fine keeping this to a tight group)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison (Adding Olabisi Johnson here feels a bit too cute, it’s a tough ask for the third banana receiver in what has been a limited passing offense so far to deliver as our run-it-back player, he’s best left for stacks and infrequent one-off value plays)
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Dwayne Haskins
Setting: At least one (lowered to one and removed running game from the stack. We’ll take what we can get adding Gibson to this in places naturally, there’s no need to force too much of one of the lowest implied team totals on the board)
Group: Terry McLaurin, Steven Sims, Dontrelle Inman, Logan Thomas
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.
