As Week 4’s Sunday slate approaches, look to use the NFL DFS projections and the new DraftKings NFL Tiers Projections Tool as a sneak peek for projected and optimal ownership, which yields the overall leverage over the field for each of the eight tiers. Below we will break down the best DraftKings tiers picks from each tier, using the new tool to help identify the top NFL DFS players from various pricing levels.
Week 4 NFL DFS DraftKings Tiers Projections & Picks
Tier 1 Pick: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 38.4%
Optimal: 37.1%
Leverage: -1.3%
Buffalo hosts Houston with the highest implied total (31.75) of this week’s slate. The Texans are allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt and now face a Bills offense that has attempted the fourth-most passes per game (42.7). Look for Allen to capitalize on the ground against a defense that has given up a league-high three touchdowns rushing to quarterbacks. Coming off his best offensive performance of the year, do not fade the Bills in another great matchup.
Tier 2 Pick: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 9.9%
Optimal: 25.2%
Leverage: 15.4%
Tier 2 is loaded with offensive playmakers facing plus matchups, but defaulting to the fourth-best leverage play on the slate is a safe choice. The Cardinals – Rams matchup carries a slate-leading 55-point total, and Arizona’s defense is 25th in points allowed to wide receivers this season. Los Angeles’ implied total of 29.75 is the third highest of Week 4, and securing Kupp’s 35.5% target share (43.8% red zone) on such great leverage is advantageous.
Tier 3 Pick: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 22.9%
Optimal: 28%
Leverage: 5.1%
Stacking Diggs and Allen is this tier’s best leverage play and a boost to lineups in all formats. The Texans pass defense has allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt on the road (9.5) and are potentially without two starting defensive backs in Justin Reid (knee) and Terrance Mitchell (concussion). Diggs enters Week 4 with the sixth-most targets per game (10.3) and leading the NFL with 415 air yards. Despite Allen’s high ownership in Tier 1, it appears few are stacking him with his undisputed favorite target. Diggs has sneaky opportunity to break out, with the second-most unrealized air yards in the NFL despite zero drops on the year.
Tier 4 Pick: D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 10.9%
Optimal: 40.2%
Leverage: 29.3%
Moore is the slate’s best leverage play and comes into Week 4 with more opportunity than he has had all season. Entering their first week without Christian McCaffery, Moore should see his target total continue its steadily incline after seeing eight, 11, and 12 targets in the first three games. McCaffery vacates 52 carries and 17 targets, a number that will be absorbed by Chuba Hubbard and the surrounding cast. As Carolina’s next biggest offensive threat, Moore will get plenty of touches. Dallas’ defense has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt and the sixth-most points to wide receivers. Lock in the underdogs in this week’s third-highest game total (52).
Tier 6 Pick: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 5%
Optimal: 20.6%
Leverage: 15.6%
Tier 6 gets tricky, with some tough matchups and unpredictable workload. As the biggest underdog on the slate, expect the Texans to be forced into a pass-heavy offense early against Buffalo. With Julio Jones ruled out for Week 4, Cooks becomes the second-best leverage play in Tier 6. Cooks has scored an average of 7.2 more points than any other option in this tier and 4.8 more points than the slate’s next closest option. He is the league leader in target share (37.6%), target rate (45.7%), completed air yards (7.9 per target) and air yards share (56.2%), A sneaky leverage play who checks all the opportunity boxes, lock in Cooks with confidence.
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