As Week 6’s Sunday slate approaches, look to use the NFL DFS projections and the new DraftKings NFL Tiers Projections Tool as a sneak peek for projected and optimal ownership, which yields the overall leverage over the field for each of the eight tiers. Below we will break down the best picks from the tiers, using the new tool to help identify the top players from various pricing levels.
Week 6 NFL DFS DraftKings Tiers Projections & Picks
Tier 1 Pick: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 29.6%
Optimal: 42%
Leverage: 12.4%
The Ravens match up with the Chargers Sunday while carrying the fifth-highest implied total of Week 6’s slate (27 points). This game also has the second-highest game total of Sunday’s slate (51.5). Baltimore has the fourth-best rushing attack in the NFL (148.8 yards per game), while Los Angeles features a run-funneling defense that has them at the bottom of the league in rush defense, allowing 157.6 yards per game. Look for two highly powered offenses to take advantage of defensive units that struggle to stop the opposing team’s strength to push this game over the intended game total. That will allow Jackson, the best leverage play on the slate, to lead Tier 1 as the QB1.
Tier 2 Pick: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 2.9%
Optimal: 8.3%
Leverage: 5.5%
With two solid leverage options in Tier 2, this was not an easy selection. However, at just 2.9% ownership in a juicy offensive matchup, fading Davante Adams for Williams is the right choice. Baltimore has been stingy against the run but has allowed the third-most yards passing per game (296.4). Williams enters Week 6 at the top of most the crucial opportunity statistics: Fourth in targets (51), third in deep targets (10) and fifth in red-zone targets (eight). This opportunity has allowed Williams to lead the NFL in touchdowns (six) while placing fifth in yards receiving (471) and fourth in yards after catch (172). At such low ownership in a great matchup, do not miss out on this level of production.
Tier 3 Pick: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 13.9%
Optimal: 25.2%
Leverage: 11.3%
Entering Week 6 as the second-best leverage play of the slate, Chase will face the Lions with the Bengals carrying the seventh-highest implied total of the week (25 points). Joe Burrow should thrive, as Detroit has the 30th-ranked pass DVOA and 31st-ranked overall DVOA. Chase holds the top spot in air yards share in the NFL (51.3%) and ties Williams in deep targets (10) while trailing him in the touchdown category by only one. Chase’s 325 completed air yards places him third in the NFL, and against a defense that has already allowed receptions of 79, 64, 50 and 41 yards this year, Chase’s downfield threat has a lot of upside.
Tier 6 Pick: Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 2.7%
Optimal: 13.5%
Leverage: 10.8%
Coming off a monster Week 5 performance (10 receptions for 189 yards), it is surprising to see such low ownership for Toney. While the status of the injured Giants receivers will play a big role (Sterling Shepard questionable, Darius Slayton questionable, Kenny Golladay doubtful) before hopping aboard the Toney train, the immense upside is there. Last week’s matchup against Dallas was a little better, but the Rams have allowed the sixth-most yards passing per game (271). It took some time for New York to provide Toney the opportunity to succeed, but in the last two weeks he has seen 22 targets for 16 receptions, leading to 267 yards on 212 air yards. If two or more of the Giant’s receivers are held out of Sunday’s game, playing Toney against a susceptible defensive secondary will provide leverage.
Tier 7 Pick: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 9%
Optimal: 7.7%
Leverage: -1.3%
Tier 7 has two strong plays with the benefit of stacking, but Andrews gets the nod over Darrell Henderson Jr. Each is facing a positive matchup, as the opposing team has allowed top-10 production to their respective positions. Andrews will face the easier of the two matchups and is playing in a game that projects to be closer and higher scoring. Los Angeles has been solid defensively this season but has struggled mightily against tight end, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this season (18.8 per game). This week’s matchup will not get any easier, as Andrews leads all tight ends in yards receiving (400) and completed air yards (275) and is top five at the position in nearly every other category.
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