As Week 7’s Sunday slate approaches, look to use the NFL DFS projections and the new DraftKings NFL Tiers Projections Tool as a sneak peek for projected and optimal ownership, which yields the overall leverage over the field for each of the eight tiers. Below we will break down the best picks from the tiers, using the new tool to help identify the top players from various pricing levels.
Week 7 NFL DFS DraftKings Tiers Projections & Picks
Tier 1 Pick: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
This is without a doubt the best matchup of the tier, as it holds the highest game total (57.5) of the slate favoring the Chiefs by 4.5 points. Kansas City (31st) and Tennessee (28th) both have defenses that rank in the bottom five of DVOA, and they are allowing 29.3 points and 26.8 points per game, respectively. Each team boasts a potent offensive skill group and a capable quarterback. This is a recipe for a shootout, which is typical anytime either of these teams step on the field. In addition to this being a competitive high scoring affair, the other quarterbacks in this tier are seeing spreads from -12.5 up to -17.5. Blowouts tend to lead offenses to run rather than throw, so that makes locking in Mahomes as the Tier 1 quarterback all that much easier.
Tier 3 Pick: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Washington’s defense has allowed the most touchdowns receiving to opposing running backs (six) while also allowing four more scores on the ground to the position. Green Bay has the fifth highest implied total (28.25) and has averaged 28.7 points per game at Lambeau. Jones enters the matchup with the third-most touchdowns in the NFL (six) and has seen 23 targets through six games. At 3.5 receptions for 27.7 yards per game, he makes a legitimate PPR threat, with 21 catches and four touchdowns. The Packers are not afraid to funnel him the ball in the red zone either. Jones has already seen 29 red-zone touches this year, good for second most in the NFL. He has been efficient when given the opportunity, with the seventh-most created yards (341) at the position.
Tier 4 Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta – Miami presents another matchup of poor defenses that will be exploited for big plays. The Dolphins rank in the bottom 10 of both yards per pass attempt (7.6) and yards per carry (4.4) allowed this year. Patterson has carved out a role in the Falcons offense that will allow him to capitalize on both weaknesses. With 41 carries and 30 receptions, he is seeing an average of 11.8 touches per game. He averages 4.03 yards created per touch, which makes him the fifth most efficient playmaker in the NFL. Look for ample opportunity and a vulnerable defensive matchup to provide a big game for Patterson.
Tier 6 Pick: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Since taking over Carolina’s backfield in Week 4, Hubbard has averaged 17.7 carries and 2.7 receptions for 270 all-purpose yards and one touchdown. The Giants have allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt and one touchdown rushing per game, so the matchup is favorable. This game has a game total of 43.0, favoring the Panthers by 3 points. After starting the season 3-0, Carolina has run into a rough patch and lost the last three. They will look to get things back on track and secure their first win since Christian McCaffrey went down. Through the first six games of the season, New York has allowed an average of 25.84 DraftKings points per game, ninth most in the NFL. Expect the Panthers to get back to their winning ways and for Hubbard to be a focal point of the offensive attack.
Tier 7 Pick: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
Arizona’s defense has been a surprise to most to start the season and is a big reason the Cardinals have started 6-0. As a 19.5-point underdog, game flow predicts the Texans will have to throw a bunch to give themselves a chance against Kyler Murray. With the third-highest target rate (36.5%) and fourth-highest target share (32.9%), Cooks projects to see most of the pass game looks. He has the speed to break big plays, although he has struggled to find the end zone this year, with only one touchdown despite 57 targets (eighth most) and 110 air yards per game (10th most). Even if he cannot find gold this week, expect the sheer volume to provide a terrific floor for Cooks in this afternoon matchup.
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