As Week 8’s Sunday slate approaches, look to use the NFL DFS projections and the new DraftKings NFL Tiers Tool as a sneak peek for projected and optimal ownership, which yields the overall leverage over the field for each of the eight tiers. Below we will break down the best picks from the tiers, using the new tool to help identify the top players from various pricing levels.
Week 8 NFL DFS DraftKings Tiers Projections & Picks
Tier 1 Pick: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 10.7%
Optimal: 9.7%
Leverage: -1.0%
Tier 1 has three quarterbacks in blowout matchups where the opposing team allows at least 29 points per game. Given the landscape, favoring the least-owned quarterback in a plus matchup feels like a solid strategy to gain leverage on the field. The Bengals travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the 1-5 Jets in a game with a 43-point total, with Cincinnati favored by 10.5 points. The Jets defense ranks 28th in pass DVOA, allowing 275 yards passing per game and 29.2 points. Burrow rolls into this matchup having surpassed 20 DraftKings points in his last four games, with totals of 30.6, 23.8, 20.3 and 25.3. While New York’s defense has been solid against opposing quarterbacks in terms of DraftKings points allowed (eighth fewest), they have allowed solid showings from the likes of Sam Darnold (20.1), Ryan Tannehill (18.8), Matt Ryan (24.6) and Mac Jones (25.2). Last week they allowed 403 yards passing and three touchdowns to the Patriots, who had three different players complete a pass.
Tier 2 Pick: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 14.0%
Optimal: 20.0%
Leverage: 5.9%
As the best leverage play of the tier , it is generally a solid rule of thumb to slot Henry in any time his ownership is under 20%. He sees more work than any other skill position player in the NFL. Indianapolis presents a solid matchup but one that Henry already exploited in Week 3 for 144 scoreless yards, leading to 22.4 DraftKings points. He ranks first or second in the following: carries per game (27.3), weighted opportunity (20.9 per game), red-zone touches (33) and opportunity share (85.1%). This opportunity consistently yields production, as Henry also ranks in the top spot in yards rushing (124.1 per game), total touchdowns (10), breakaway runs (nine), evaded tackles (90) and dominator rating (49.1%). This game has the highest game total of the slate (50.5) while favoring Indianapolis by 2.5 points, so do not expect the scoring surge to stop for the Titans. The Colts allow 111 yards rushing per game, will be without their top three safeties and allowed 107 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries to Elijah Mitchell.
Tier 3 Pick: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 9.1%
Optimal: 19.7%
Leverage: 10.6%
No team has allowed more DraftKings points to the running back position than the Jets, and it is not particularly close. Allowing 39.7 points per game and 13 points in the red zone per game lands them in the bottom spot of each category . The Jets have also allowed more yards receiving to opposing backs (79.8 per game on 8.7 receptions). This is why Mixon makes perfect sense to stack with Joe Burrow. Fresh off allowing nine receptions for 91 yards to the New England backfield, the Jets will now face a much healthier-looking Mixon as of the last two weeks. Expect the 27th-ranked run DVOA to allow the top leverage play on the slate to get loose for a big game Sunday.
Tier 4 Pick: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 13.5%
Optimal: 21.0%
Leverage: 6.6%
After being bottled up in two of his last three appearances, Williams and the Chargers face a leaky Patriots defense that ranks middle of the road in pass DVOA (14th) and has allowed 171.7 yards receiving to the wide receiver position this year. This matchup has a game total of 49 and favors the home Chargers by 4 pints. Austin Ekeler was a late add to the injury report (hip), which could allot more usage to Williams, who already has the eighth-highest hog rate (19.2%) in the NFL. Expect the Patriots to allocate more defensive attention to Keenan Allen, who in three games against New England has never topped 61 yards. With the best leverage score in the tier, lock in the new WR1 in Los Angeles with confidence.
Tier 6 Pick: James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 13.1%
Optimal: 20.2%
Leverage: 7.2%
Seeing the third-highest snap share (73.4%) and the fifth-highest opportunity share (76.8%) will allow Robinson the platform to have a massive game against the struggling front seven of the Seahawks. Seattle is ahead of only the Jets in points allowed to opposing running backs (32.9), and the Seahawks have allowed the third-most yards rushing per game (134.1). Their defensive struggles extend to the yards receiving allowed to backs, with over 70 yards per game, an area where Robinson has excelled this year. With the sixth-most routes run (127) at his position, Robinson has the fifth-highest route participation (58.8%). He averages 5.1 true yards per carry (fifth in the NFL) and makes for a great play as the highest leverage option in Tier 6. This matchup has a game total of 44 and favors the Seahawks by 3.5 points.
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