After a long six months, the NFL is finally here. And that means it’s time for some NFL DFS Picks. From the Slot is back for its second season, featuring a few of Awesemo’s grades and values each week for DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Our FULL NFL content schedule will be out soon, but we’ve got loads of exciting new columns and shows this season:
- Sal Vetri and Manny Lora are joining Loughy and a few others on the NFL Strategy Show at 11 ET from Tuesday to Saturday.
- Adam Pfiefer joins us from RotoCurve to provide a MASSIVE matchups breakdown of every game on the Sunday Slate as well as a key injury report on Fridays.
- Chris Spags is releasing four weekly videos previewing some of Awesemo’s favorite plays.
And much more!
Don’t forget to check out the daily NFL Strategy Show, this morning at 11 ET with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri, where they talked about pricing for week 1 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
As well, we have a HUGE giveaway for Week 1, so make sure to check out our Twitter account.
NFL DFS Week 1 Slate Strategy
With so many cheap options at the running back position, that’s going to lower ownership on the big dogs more than a usual slate, and that will allow DFSers to fit in some of those high-priced stacks and wide receivers. If Elliott doesn’t play and Pollard gets up to 35-40% ownership, take a look at some of the other chalk and find pivot points in your lineups to lower-owned options to gain differentiation of the field.
Remember: Week 1 is a little crazier than we’d like to think it is. We’re going in blinder than usual, with no in-season stats to go on, so don’t be afraid to go against the grain. Last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick was the top QB on the slate.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston: Grades: A; Values: A
Awesemo is ridiculously high on Jameis’s fantasy prospects this season – ranking him as the second highest quarterback overall in his season long projections. That may seem like a bit much, but in games that Winston started and finished last season, he finished as the QB4. With a 25-point implied total, against a weak 49ers secondary and a bargain price, Winston is one of the top options on the slate. As an added plus, this offense is suddenly very concentrated, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and OJ Howard locked in for a huge target share this year. Godwin was the talk of the offseason, so if you want a pivot stack, fire up Winston with OJ Howard and/or Mike Evans.
The only cause for concern here is whether or not this mediocre Bucs offensive line can hold up against what should be a game-wrecking 49ers unit, with DeForest Buckner, Dee Ford and Nick Bosa in the fold.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler: Grades: B, Values: A
At first glance, Ekeler seems like an obvious play with Melvin Gordon holding out, but he’s actually priced up to the point where he might not get overly chalky ownership. There are simply too many good running backs in prime positions priced around him, including Chris Carson, Kerryon Johnson and sure to be highly owned Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette. Ekeler gets a home matchup against a Colts zone heavy defense that allowed the most targets in the NFL last season to running backs, to go along with 110 receptions and 830 yards (both bottom-three in the league). Ekeler 65% snap share led the team in games Melvin Gordon missed last season with the Chargers.
Of course, all those aforementioned mid-tier starting RBs are all viable too. Dalvin Cook will see some of the highest ownership on the slate, given the price point and the narratives surrounding him. The Vikings are supposedly opting for a run-centric approach this year, and they get the Falcons in Week 1, who have issues defending the position. You might say the Falcons D was devastated by injury last year and they should be improved, but for FOUR years in a row the Falcons have allowed the most receptions in the NFL to running backs. It’s the scheme, not the players.
Tony Pollard is the x-factor on this slate. If his ownership gets out of control, there are viable pivots for $1,000 more. Remember: Week 1 is a little crazier than we’d think it is, so don’t be find pivots off the chalk.
UPDATE: I’m a little concerned the ownership is creeping on Ekeler. We have him projected as a top-five owned back. Add in the comments coming from the coaching staff about a time share, and I think I’d rather pivot here to a Chris Carson, type play where the game script and the touches are all but guaranteed.
Wide Receiver
Curtis Samuel: DraftKings Grade: C, Value: B; FanDuel: Grade: C, Value: D
This is more of a DraftKings play than a FanDuel one, because at just $4,200 on DK, he’s hard to ignore. Samuel was top-30 in the NFL last season in average targeted air yards, and is going up against a Rams team that gave up a number of big receiving plays, including the second most receptions of 40 or more yards in the NFL last year. Both Samuel and teammate DJ Moore are going to get the bulk of targets in this offense, but Moore is priced up at $5,500. This game has a 50.5 total – the second highest on the slate. Samuel’s season long ADP has risen of late as word continues to spread about his impressive camp.
Tight End
Evan Engram: DraftKings: Grade: B, Value: B; FanDuel: Grade B, Value: D
Engram is the fifth most expensive TE on each slate, but might find himself in a bit of a dead area here, with DFSers either paying up for one of the top-options, or heading down to the likes of super-cheap Hunter Henry. In his final four games last season without Odell Beckham Jr, Engram posted 77-75-87-81 yards receiving on 22 receptions. In two games against the Cowboys last year he posted a 12-148-2 line. As well, the Giants are thin at WR, with Golden Tate out, so that should mean more targets for Engram. This feels like a safe, cash game play, rather than a home run option for GPPs. Dallas finished 16th in DVOA against the position in 2018.
NFL DFS Stacks
Contrarian stack #1
It’s early in the week, so time will tell how contrarian this really is, but the Jaguars have a 24 point implied total at home to the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs, which is middle of the pack on this slate. But the odds are, Nick Foles (Grades: C, Values: A) is going to have to throw the ball to keep them in it. The advantage of rostering this stack is their overall cheapness. Foles is one of the five cheapest quarterbacks on both sites, while two or three of the Jags starting wide receivers might end up being near the bare-min.
It remains to be seen if DJ Chark or Marqise Lee will start Week 1, but if they don’t Chris Conley (Grades: E; Values: E) will start. Conley was a SPARQ standout at the draft, but was buried on the Chiefs depth chart. And of course, there’s Dede Westbrook (D,D) who will be in the bulk of the Foles-stack lineups, but is a little pricier. The Chiefs gave up the MOST receptions of 20 yards or more last season.
Contrarian stack #2
Again, we don’t have ownership yet, so the Detroit Lions could get some buzz as the week progresses. We have them going up against a Cardinals team who we’re expecting to play at the fastest pace in the NFL this year. And their secondary is awful. Patrick Peterson is suspended for the first six games of the year, and their other starting corner, Robert Alford is out with a leg injury. That leaves them with a thin secondary, featuring journeyman Tramaine Brock (60.5 PFF coverage grade last year), second round rookie Byron Murphy and three UDFAs on the roster. Yikes.
To boot, you have a concentrated passing offense, with Matt Stafford firing off the Lions share of his targets to Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Of course, if you’re rostering this stack, you’re going to want to bring it back with a Cardinals WR or pair it up with Kerryon Johnson and hope for a blowout. Awesemo’s rankings love Danny Amendola (Grades: C, Values: A) if you need a cheap, punt play.
D/ST
Here’s a sneaky one on the Monday two-game slate for you: Grab the Saints D/ST against the Houston Texans. Sure, the line is high in this one, but the the Saint’s D-line should dominate the Texans O-line. The Saints finished with 49 sacks last year and the 4th highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL. The Texans gave up and NFL high 62 sacks in 2018 and had the highest adjusted sack rate allowed in the league. Who knows if Laremy Tunsil will be good to go, but expect some growing pains with less than a week to learn the offense. They should fly under the radar with a huge implied total.
