From the Slot: Week 9 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks & Ownership Projections

This article will highlight some of the week’s highest-projected NFL DFS picks today at each position on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, all based off Awesemo’s NFL DFS projections and models. For Week 9, there are 11 games on the main slate and plenty of games with close point spreads, including the Packers +1 at the Chiefs -1. We will provide insight into ownership projections and matchup information. Be sure to subscribe to Awesemo to access the full DFS site projections, ownership projections and other great tools each week.

Week 9 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

QB Tua Tagovailoa | Grades: B, Values: A

There are some big names at quarterback on the main slate this week with strong projections, but this spot for Tua Tagovailoa looks promising enough to pay down for. Tagovailoa is the eighth-best main-slate quarterback in the Awesemo projections this week, which is the highest he has been this year. Eighth may not sound super impressive, but he is the highest-rated quarterback under $6,700 on DraftKings and carries the fifth-best value score at his position as well. The savings with a sub-$6,000 quarterback are awesome, but the upside is what makes this spot so attractive.

Over his last three games, Tagovailoa has averaged 43 pass attempts per game, as the Dolphins’ eroding defense  has led to the team being in more pass-heavy situations late in games. Miami’s addition of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle over the offseason has also helped the passing situation, and both he and athletic tight end Mike Gesicki should help produce some big plays against a Houston pass defense that ranks second-to-last in yards per pass attempt (against) this season. The Dolphins have almost zero run game — they are last in the NFL in rushing attempts per game — and yet have a 26.25 implied team total this week. Tagovailoa has plenty of upside and makes sense to build around as a cheap quarterback in Week 9.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 9.4%

RB Austin Ekeler | Grades: B, Values: B

It has been a while, but there are finally multiple big-name running backs to pay up for in Week 9. Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones are all worthy targets, but the one the projections prefer the most is Chargers running back Austin Ekeler. Ekeler has the top projection at running back for the main slate and still has a palatable ownership projection, which puts him under 15% for the week.

That information on its own is worth excitement, and that is before discussing Ekeler’s increased usage/efficiency or opponent. Ekeler averaged 5.8 yards per carry last week on 11 carries against a tough run defense and saw a season-high 10 targets. He was rarely off the field against the Patriots, playing over 75% of the snaps last week, and with the Chargers nursing a two-game losing streak, one would think similar usage is coming in Week 9. The Eagles have been a gold mine for opposing running backs, allowing the second-most receptions to the position this year, along with nine touchdowns. This may be a week to jam in two expensive running backs when making rosters, and the projections say to make sure Ekeler is one of them.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 13.7%

WR Brandin Cooks | Grades: B, Values: B

Paying up at running back this week can also be made easier by going with a slight discount at wide receiver. While the spots for both Davante Adams (assuming he plays – COVID protocols) and Tyreek Hill look juicy, Brandin Cooks also sets up as one of the screaming buys of the week at just $6,100 on DraftKings. Cooks comes in seventh in the wide receiver projections, but his Awesemo value ratings are through the roof, as he has the best value score of any wide receiver with a salary greater than $5,000 for Week 9.

Miami’s defense has been cratering since the beginning of the year, with injuries to their secondary, and even with some players back last week, they still allowed two touchdowns to the Bills receivers, along with a 110-yard game to Cole Beasley. Cooks enters this game averaging around nine targets per game and may even get an upgrade at quarterback this week if Tyrod Taylor (questionable) can get in a good week of practice — Cooks went for 134 yards on just five catches with Taylor in Week 1. Regardless of who throws him the ball, the price and matchup are too good to pass on.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 15.2%

TE Darren Waller | Grades: A, Values: B

With Henry Ruggs out indefinitely for an off-field incident, expect the rest of the Raiders receivers to benefit from increased target share. Ruggs had averaged 5.1 targets per game, and while Bryan Edwards and Zay Jones could benefit in the short term, the most likely scenario is that Darren Waller will go back to seeing 10-plus targets per game. Waller’s target share in 2021 had dropped from his 2020 levels by one or two targets per game through seven weeks, but this shakeup in personnel — and the fact Waller has had a full week to get over some nagging leg injuries — means he should come out of Week 9 flying for fantasy purposes.

The projections agree wholeheartedly, as they have him above even Travis Kelce as the No. 1 tight end for Week 9. The Giants are a solid matchup, as teams are throwing the ball over 36 times per game against them. On a week where there are good value targets in Tagovailoa and Cooks, paying up for Waller — who is still well under $7,000 — makes a ton of sense given all that has transpired over the last couple days for Vegas.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 14.4%

Top NFL DFS Stack: Green Bay Packers

The Packers and Chiefs are set to clash this week in a game where both teams have an implied team total hovering around 27. The Chiefs are rated as the slightly better stack this week in the Awesemo Top Stacks Tool, but Aaron Rodgers also brings an ownership projection that is about one-third of Patrick Mahomes’, and he makes for a good leverage play off his teammate Aaron Jones too.

Using a Green Bay quarterback/wide receiver stack (aka Rodgers and Adams) will be predicated on Adams getting cleared in time to play. But if he does, there will be fewer of those combos in large fields given the lower sentiment on Rodgers. One could always come back with a play from Kansas City as well (Hill), and paying up for both big-play wide receivers — especially with Rodgers at quarterback– will provide a unique build on a week where many will be looking to spend up at running back.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback Ownership DraftKings: 2.8%

Update: Aaron Rodgers ruled out this week (COVID).

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