MUST PLAY Week 16 NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Sunday Main Slate Lineups

It is always important to find value for DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 16 NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

Awesemo’s projections

Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 16

FanDuel Value Quarterback: Jalen Hurts — $7,700

Clearly, Hurts isn’t exactly low priced. However, he is a value on FanDuel this week. He’s the top projected quarterback in value in Awesemo’s projections on FanDuel this week. For all of his warts as a real life quarterback, Hurts is a dominant fantasy option. He’s fourth among all quarterbacks in FanDuel points per game, and has topped 20 points on FanDuel in nine of his 13 games.

As a big favorite against the Giants mediocre defense, it’s hard to see Hurts failing here. While his worst game of the season was in the Eagles loss to the Giants in their first meeting, it seems unlikely that the Eagles offense fails again in this spot. Their implied total is top-five on the slate, and Hurts is the only quarterback with a total over 25 who brings rushing upside to the table.

DraftKings Value Quarterback: Matt Ryan — $5,400

Ryan has — on paper at least — an extremely easy matchup with the Lions this week. Detroit ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass, despite shutting down Kyler Murray and the Cardinals last week. Ryan hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game since early November, but this is a great chance to break that streak.

Ryan has actually been solid form a yards-per-attempt standpoint as of late, but has had some bad touchdown luck with the Falcons scoring on the ground. That should regress here, making him a solid play at his reasonable price. Atlanta is implied for roughly 24 points here, meaning three total touchdowns is in the cards. We’d really only need Ryan to account for two of them to be a solid value at $5,400. He’s the top rated quarterback in value in Awesemo’s DraftKings projections in Week 16.

FanDuel Value Running Back: Alexander Mattison — $5,500

Not a lot needs to be said about Mattison this week. He’s filling in for starter Dalvin Cook, who’s inactive this week after testing positive for COVID. Unlike some backups, Mattison (and Latavius Murray before him) steps into nearly 100% of the starters role when Cook misses time. That’s not to say Mattison is as good as Cook, but he doesn’t need to be given how much cheaper he is. He is a solid player in his own right though. In three starts in relief of Cook this year, he’s averaged over 4 yards per carry — and scored over 19.9 FanDuel points — in each of them. He’s the top running back value by a wide margin in Awesemo’s projections on FanDuel.

DraftKings Value Running Back: Ronald Jones — $5,100

With Leonard Fournette out, “Rojo” will be the starter — and likely bellcow — for the Bucs this week. Tampa Bay of course is the league’s pass heaviest team. However, they’re also the league’s best scoring offense though, which is beneficial for running backs. The Bucs are also double-digit favorites against a bottom-10 rushing defense in the league. That means an increase in both volume and efficiency for Jones.

Of course, Jones’ struggles in the pass game are a concern. It’s possible that he comes off the field in passing situations, and when your quarterback is Tom Brady every down is a passing down. Still, that’s more of a concern for his ceiling that expected outcome. It’s pretty hard for him to fail from a price-considered standpoint if he steps into Fournette’s rushing role, even without action in the pass game. He’s the top value in Awesemo’s projections on DraftKings.

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FanDuel Value Wide Receiver: D.J. Moore $6,400

While it’s been a struggle for the Panthers offense as of late, Moore has been a bright spot. He has double-digit targets in three straight games, and at least 9.8 FanDuel points in each of those contests. The matchup is much better (at least from a volume standpoint) for Moore this week. Tampa Bay faces the highest opponent pass-play rate in the league, and Moore’s Panthers are 10-point underdogs. Both of which point to increased passing volume for the team in general, and Moore specifically — he leads the team with a 28.5% target share.

Carolina has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate in this one, suggesting that a multi-touchdown performance from Moore is a long shot. However, this is the cheapest Moore has been all season, so he doesn’t need one to be a good play here. Moore’s shown an ability to have success regardless of who’s under center in Carolina, so we shouldn’t worry too much about the two (or three) quarterback rotation head coach Matt Rhule is suggesting. Moore is the top FanDuel wide receiver in Awesemo’s projections by value.

DraftKings Value Wide Receiver: Jamison Crowder — $5,000

Crowder is second on the Jets in targets this year. Their top option (Elijah Moore) isn’t eligible to come back from the IR yet (and is also on the COVID list). Number three (Corey Davis) is out for the year. That’s also been the case for both of the last two weeks, and Crowder has averaged seven targets across those two games. Those games also came against two above-average pass defenses in the Dolphins and the Saints. That’s not the case this week, as the Jets take on the Jaguars, who rank second-to-last (ahead of only the Jets) in DVOA against the pass. Crowder has little competition for targets and a great matchup. What more could you ark for at $5,000? (Other than a competent quarterback I suppose.) He’s third in value in Awesemo’s Week 16 projections on DraftKings

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