NFL DFS Picks: Mike Williams, CEH & Terry McLaurin Top Leverage Plays for Winning GPPs in Week 1 (September 11)

The 2022-23 NFL season kicks off this week and for Sunday, we get a 13-game slate to attack. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score, which is a score based on the player’s ownership and ceiling. So, a low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. Below, I dive into some of my favorite leverage targets for the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Week 1 NFL DFS Leverage Picks

Mike Williams

Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 5th, FanDuel: 80th

While Williams is expected to see higher ownership on FanDuel, he is an elite GPP target on DraftKings, where the receiver is slated for sub 5% ownership according to Stokastic’s ownership projections. Coming off a career season in 2021, Williams was rewarded a three-year $60 million contract extension from the Chargers this spring. In his 16 games last season, Williams ran a route on 83% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks and garnered a target on 21% of those routes, including 19 redzone targets, which ranked 10th in the league among receivers. Additionally, Williams saw incredible utilization as a deep threat, ranking 10th in the league in the league in targets over 20 yards (26). In result, the 27-year-old finished ninth in receiving touchdowns (nine) and averaged 16.2 DraftKings PPG. This Sunday, Williams is in a prime spot to start his season on a strong note, facing the Raiders. This NFC West matchup carries the second highest total on the slate (52 points) and the Chargers’ implied team total is the second largest board (27.75 points). This is also anticipated to be a competitive affair, with Los Angeles only favored by 3.5-points. Williams could erupt in this spot and either pairing him with Herbert or using him as a bring back option for Raiders’ stacks is the best way to attack this projected shootout.

Terry McLaurin

Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 12th, FanDuel: 16th

With Carson Wentz in town, McLaurin should be in store for a career season. Even with Taylor Heinicke as his quarterback last season, McLaurin eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight year, earning him a three-year $71 million extension this summer. For the season, Heinicke finished the season 23^rd in quarterback rating, while Wentz finished ninth, showing you how large of an upgrade this is for McLaurin. Despite the poor quarterback play last season, fourth-year wideout easily led Washington with a 25% target share, while ranking fourth in the league in air yards (1,717) and fifth in targets north of 20 yards (33). The elite usage should continue for McLaurin as Wentz’s unrivaled top target this season and to begin their tenure together, they get a gorgeous matchup against the Jags this Sunday. Jacksonville was susceptible through the air last season, yielding the sixth highest yards per pass attempt (7.1) and Washington possesses a healthy implied team total of 23 points in this spot. McLaurin has the potential for 100+ yards and a touchdown this Sunday, and has to be included in your GPP pool with Stokastic forecasting the receiver for sub 5% ownership levels on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 10th, FanDuel: 6th

Facing the Cardinals, the Chiefs’ boast an implied team total of 29.75 points, which is the high mark of this 13-game slate by a notable two points. With most focusing on the Chiefs’ passing game, Edwards-Helaire is expected to see low ownership on both sites according to Stokastic’s ownership projections, making him an awesome contrarian way to gain access to Kansas City’s massive team total. Getting the start in the final preseason game Patrick Mahomes suited up for, Edwards-Helaire remains the No.1 running back for the Chiefs and just like when he was healthy last season, Edwards-Helaire should see the majority of the work for this backfield this Sunday. The 23-year-old dealt with a slew of injuries last year, but when he was healthy for the first four games of the season, Edwards-Helaire handled 72% of the running back carries for the Chiefs, including four redzone carries, while playing 62.6% of the snaps. The back also saw solid usage a receiver, running a route on 53% of Mahomes’ dropbacks. All in all, Edwards-Helaire surpassed 100 yards rushing twice, found the paydirt twice and supplied 14.3 DraftKings PPG during this four-game stretch. This Cardinals’ defense he is facing Sunday gave up the eighth highest yards per rush a year ago (4.5) and Edwards-Helaire’s prop lines are very encouraging considering his modest DFS price tags. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Edward’s Helaires’s total yardage O/U line is set at 61.5 and he is favored to score a touchdown at -105. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Edwards-Helaire owns the highest leverage score on the slate among running backs for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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