NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Best Wild Card Saturday Night Football DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Advice

For each of the featured playoff games, this column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Wild Card Saturday Night Football slate featuring the Buffalo Bills hosting the New England Patriots.

DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Picks Wild Card Saturday Night Football

New England naturally has a dozen players listed as questionable with left tackle Isaiah Winn (hip/ankle) out and defensive backs Jalen Mills and Shaun Wade in the health and safety protocol. Center David Andrews (shoulder) is the other concern on the offensive line. For the skill position players running back Damien Harris (hamstring) and Jakobi Meyers (thigh) are the players to keep tabs on when inactives are posted.

Buffalo does not have anyone listed on the injury report and Emmanuel Sanders is expected play after missing a couple games with a knee issue.

New England Patriots: 19.5 Points

Quarterback

Since taking over as the head coach in 2000, this will be the 18th time Bill Belichick has coached the Patriots into the playoffs. This will be the third time these teams have met with New England eking out a 14-10 victory in Buffalo with a run heavy approach in poor weather during Week 13. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones attempted only three passes as the Patriots ran 46 times for 222 yards and a touchdown. The second game was more traditional as the Bills were up by two scores for most of the game and Jones was only able to complete 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards while suffering a pair of interceptions.

The Awesemo projections are not giving a lot of love to Jones as he currently has a median stat line of 218.1 passing yards and 19.4 of 33.2 attempts with 1.33 passing touchdowns and he is projected for at least one turnover. Though he is projected for the second most points, he also has the second highest salary and of course is the epitome of a wild card holding a myriad of potential outcomes. For the entire weekend, he is projected for the lowest fantasy production among all 12 quarterbacks in action.

Running Back

Damien Harris (hamstring) has been dinged up a few different times this season and he has just 20 carries for 72 yards over the last two games. However, he does have three touchdowns and one of those games was a 50-10 shellacking of Jacksonville. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson has definitely impressed over the back half of the season, but we know that Belichick prefers his trusty veterans. Even if Harris out, Stevenson is just one fumble or blown pass protection assignment away from sitting on the bench. Brandon Bolden has assumed the role of the pass catching back in the James White role. Though he is nowhere near as talented as hi predecessor, he is a capable runner and receiver and did have a rushing and receiving score in the Week 18 loss to Miami. Bolden has 10 more targets than Harris and Stevenson combined this season.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers has become semi-trustworthy from a fantasy perspective and he has seen eight or more targets in each of his last five games. It was also nice to see him get in the end zone not once, but twice this season after failing to score in his first 32 career games. Kendrick Bourne seems to be the WR2, though Nelson Agholor is always lurking and on FanDuel with only a $500 salary discount, he should see a fraction of the popularity when compared with Bourne. DraftKings has each of this duo coming in on 25-30% of all rosters with Agholor’s salary at half of the $5,200 tag carried by Bourne.

N’Keal Harry and Gunner Olszewski can be excluded from the FanDuel player pool. However, on DraftKings they are both at the $200 minimum, so they start to factor in around lineup Nos. 50-75 for the mass-multi-entry crowd. For perspective both will be on less than 3% of all rosters on DraftKings.

Tight End

Hunter Henry has seen at least five targets in his last five games and though he has only two touchdowns in this stretch, he did tally seven total touchdowns by scoring in six of seven outings between Week 4 and Week 10. Jonnu Smith has only five targets in his last four games, though we know he is live for a touchdown anytime in Belichick’s world and he is only $1,000 on DraftKings compared to the $6,200 salary for Henry.

Defense/Special Teams

Though the Patriots are an excellent team/system defense, they have just eight sacks in their last six games. In this stretch they do have five interceptions and four fumble recoveries, though it is hard to endorse them on the road.

Buffalo Bills: 24.0 Points

Quarterback

While it is going to be bitterly cold with game time temperatures in the single digits, keep in mind that this is the fourth season for Josh Allen in Buffalo and he also spent three seasons playing for Wyoming in college which is not exactly the most temperate environment. Allen continues to be a phenomenal dual threat option and while his six rushing touchdowns were the fewest of his career, he had less red zone attempts that normal. This is a nice trend for the veteran, who also chose his spots to run between the 20s and ended up with a career high 763 rushing yards. This is a win or go home game and we are going to want to make Allen a priority in all formats tonight.

Running Back

Devin Singletary has clearly consolidated what was once a fractured workload for the Buffalo backfield. Matt Breida is likely to be inactive after Zack Moss reasserted himself down the stretch after getting snubbed a few weeks himself. There is a chance that both could be active, though it is clear neither compare to Singletary at this stage of the season. In tournaments, they are in play at an extreme discount in the hopes that something happens to Singletary during the game.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs is the clear top dog in the passing game and Cole Beasley has cemented himself as the possession receiver. Emmanuel Sanders return will curtail the opportunities for Gabriel Davis and with the cold weather and New England’s proclivity for running the ball keep the clock moving and that may cap the target volume tonight.

Tight End

Dawson Knox has been stellar this season with nine touchdowns and similar to Singletary, he has consolidated all of the tight end opportunities. Allen has always been fond of going to the tight ends in the red zone, however this is the first time that one player has emerged as the go-to option. Knox had 80-90% of the opportunities and production across all the pertinent statistical categories this season.

Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo has 19 sacks in their last four games, though they have just four takeaways in this stretch. In their two matchups against New England they have recorded only one sack, two interceptions and a fumble recovery. The Patriots will do their best to shelter Jones, but if Buffalo is able to get out to a lead, they may not have any choice other than throwing the ball more frequently than usual.

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Wild Card Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Wild Card Saturday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Josh Allen: Done and done.
2. Devin Singletary: Some may pass on the rising salary.
3. Stefon Diggs: Top eight in targets and yards, top six in touchdowns and receptions.
4. Mac Jones: DraftKings has him aggressively discounted at $8,800 where backup signal-callers are $6,000.
5. Jakobi Meyers: Don’t worry about the questionable tag.
6. Damien Harris: Do worry about the questionable tag as tender hamstrings and cold weather do not mix.
7. Brandon Bolden: Intriguing on DraftKings with the full-PPR, still needs to score.
8. Dawson Knox: One level below the elite tight ends this year.
9. Nick Folk: Though he is 37-years old, he does have 10 combined seasons kicking outdoors in New England and New York.
10. Tyler Bass: Not as proven as Folk, this is just he second season in the league.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders: Beasley gets the DraftKings nod, take the discount with Sanders on FanDuel.
2. Rhamondre Stevenson: If Harris somehow doesn’t start, move Stevenson up to his slot.
3. Buffalo D/ST: Going against a rookie quarterback who does not scramble.
4. Hunter Henry: Playing for a touchdown.
5. Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor: Just enough potential to stay out of the next section if we see 35+ pass attempts from Jones tonight.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Gabriel Davis: Buffalo receiving corps gets crowded with the return of Sanders.
2. New England D/ST: Meh.
3. Zack Moss: We need a lucky touchdown or something to happen to Singletary.
4. Jonnu Smith: Only for the bold.
5. Isaiah McKenzie: Only for the daring, does return punts and kicksoffs.
6. N’Keal Harry, Jakob Johnson, Reggie Gilliam and Gunner Olszewski: $200 minimum on DraftKings, over under on combined touches is 6.5, including Olszewski’s work returning punts and kickoffs.
7. Jake Kumerow: If he beats us, so be it.
8. Brian Hoyer and Mitchell Trubisky: Only if your initials are CJK.

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