NFL DFS Picks: Trey Lance & Derek Carr Top Value Plays at Quarterback in Week 2 (Sunday, September 18)

After an incredible Week 1, we dive into the second week of the season looking to capitalize on observations from the opening slate of games. Combine Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are best point-per-dollar while utilizing the projected ownership to understand the leverage of these plays.

Week 2 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

DraftKings Quarterback: Trey Lance – $5,700

San Francisco started their season in a monsoon at Soldier Field that heavily limited both offenses, especially the passing game. The 49ers lost their starting running back, Eli Mitchell, early in this contest resulting in Deebo Samuel moving to de facto scatback and Lance leading the team in total rushing (62). The former North Dakota State Bison produced a first down or a touchdown on a league-best 46.2% of his rush attempts in Week 1. This rushing ability and the favorable matchup with Seattle is what separates him from the other quarterbacks in this price range. The 49ers have the sixth-highest implied total (26 points) of the slate, and the slate’s best value play (3.68) should look much more comfortable in Week 2 on the West Coast.

FanDuel Quarterback: Derek Carr – $7,300

The Las Vegas Raiders entered the 2022 NFL season with a ton of buzz. A new head coach, Josh McDaniels, and the addition of the league’s best wide receiver, Davante Adams, is what garnered the most attention and Carr looks like the biggest beneficiary. A difficult Week 1 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers resulted in the Raiders passing at the second-highest percentage (76.8%), trailing only the New York Jets. This week’s matchup features a much weaker defense in the Arizona Cardinals, who have struggled mightily against the pass dating back to mid-2021. Look for the former Fresno State duo to pick up where they left off and establish Carr as an elite value play in Week 2.

DraftKings Running Back: Javonte Williams – $6,500

The second-year running back out of North Carolina enters Week 2 as the best value play at running back (2.81) while projecting early in the week as the position’s best leverage play (11.2). The backfield snaps came in exactly as expected with Williams seeing a 60/40 split with running mate Melvin Gordon III. Each back committed a critical fumble in Week 1’s one-point loss to Seattle, but neither was given the doghouse treatment for their offense. Williams was heavily involved in the passing game, turning 12 targets into 11 receptions for 65 yards. He added an additional 43 yards on the ground in seven attempts, finishing with an impressive 6.0 yards per touch. After Houston allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs (41.9) in Week 1, expect the Denver Broncos to deploy a similar attack.

FanDuel Running Back: Darrell Henderson Jr. – $6,200

If one thing was clear from Week 1, it’s that Cam Akers is in the doghouse for Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams. Had rookie Kyren Williams not gotten injured on the opening kickoff, there’s the feeling that Akers may have never entered the game, and for good reason. In the snaps he did participate in, he looked dreadful – clearly avoiding the pass rush and allowing Matthew Stafford to get crushed by Jordan Phillips. This led to Henderson Jr. seeing 55-of-67 available snaps at the position while producing 73 scoreless yards from scrimmage against an imposing Buffalo Bills defense. Week 2’s matchup is much less debilitating as Atlanta allowed a league-worst 7.9 yards per rush in their opening matchup with New Orleans.

DraftKings Wide Receiver: Brandin Cooks – $6,000

Stacking this Houston – Denver matchup appears to be the move this week as each team’s respective number one option holds massive leverage on the field. Cooks picked up right where he left off last season, connecting with Davis Mills for seven receptions on 12 targets, which paced the team at 34.3% target share. His opportunity metrics look phenomenal again this year as he saw 132 air yards (third-most) good for 47.1% air yards share while participating in 100% of routes. Expect this deep threat turned target hog to cover value at a middling price while offering tremendous leverage over the other options at the position.

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