NFL DFS Picks Week 1: Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce & Jalen Hurts Potential SLATE-BREAKERS (September 11)

Built similarly to the extremely popular NBA Boom Bust Tool here at Stokastic, the NFL Boom Bust Tool has gained popularity as the most user-friendly way to identify the best (and worst) plays on any given slate. Developed by the data team at Stokastic, including Alex Baker himself, this NFL DFS projections tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s 13-game slate — as well as highlight which plays are most likely to fail. Simply group players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust) and compare those scores to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions for Week 1 NFL DFS and fantasy football contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool as your main NFL DFS projection source is imperative when constructing your NFL DraftKings and NFL FanDuel lineups today.

NFL DFS Picks Week 1: Best High-Upside Plays

Boom Plays

QB Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles: DraftKings – $6,800 / 16.2% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000 / 18.1% Boom

It is impossible to look at Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and not notice that Jalen Hurts is the best quarterback option by far on this main slate. Hurts has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings among all players. He also has the highest leverage of any player as he will match up against the Detroit Lions, who were atrocious defensively last season. They ranked 31st in rush DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA. The Philadelphia Eagles won 44-6 at Detroit last season and are favored by four points going into this week. One of the best parts about Hurts is his dual-threat abilities. He led the league last season with 784 rushing yards, while Hurts only had one game below seven rushing attempts and 30 rushing yards all season. Adding AJ Brown to the mix will help Hurts as well this season. Stokastic projects Hurts to be the highest-owned quarterback, but he is also projected to be in the optimal over 19% of the time on both sites!

RB Christian McCaffrey – Carolina Panthers: DraftKings – $8,500 / 16.7% Boom | FanDuel – $9,500 / 12.6% Boom

When Christian McCaffrey is healthy, it is highly recommended that he is rostered. There may have been a risk with drafting McCaffrey in season long, but in DFS, he is a near lock at this salary on DraftKings. Normally getting close to $10,000, McCaffrey seems like a great value at $8,500. He has the highest boom percentage at the running back position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, which should be no surprise as he is known for being a point-per-reception superstar. After playing every game during the 2017-2019 seasons, McCaffrey has only played 10 games over the past two seasons due to injury. The Carolina Panthers added quarterback Baker Mayfield this offseason coming off of the worst season in his career. With spending his last four years in Cleveland, this home matchup against the Browns in Week 1 will have Mayfield fired up. This game total is on the lower side, but McCaffrey will be heavily involved all over the field and is a great cash game cornerstone.

WR Ja’Marr Chase – Cincinnati Bengals: DraftKings – $7,100 / 11.7% Boom | FanDuel – $8,200 / 10.5% Boom

After an incredible rookie season, Ja’Marr Chase came in with a lot of publicity this offseason as one of the best wide receivers in the league already. During the regular season, Chase ranked fourth in receiving yards, third in touchdowns and second in yards per reception. He only had 81 receptions, but Chase is such a threat with the ball in his hands. After leading the Bengals with 128 targets, it would make sense for college teammate and quarterback Joe Burrow to pepper him, even more, this season. During the Bengals’ ridiculous playoff run, Chase had a rushing attempt in each playoff game. The Pittsburgh Steelers were much better against the pass than the run last season, but Chase did have two touchdowns in their first meeting. Our Boom/Bust Tool has Chase with the highest boom percentage for wide receivers on both sites for the main slate. The Bengals have the sixth-highest total and are 6.5-point road favorites. Expect Chase and company to pick up right where they left off last season.

TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs: DraftKings – $6,600 / 18.2% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000 / 16.5% Boom

Similar to the quarterback position, there is one tight end that stands out among the rest and that would be Kansas City Chiefs star Travis Kelce. For Week 1, Kelce has the highest boom percentage of any player on DraftKings and the second-highest behind Hurts on FanDuel. He is coming in as a negative leverage play because his ownership has risen quite a bit leading up to the game. The major positive for Kelce all season long will be the absence of Tyreek Hill, who led the Chiefs in receiving yards, receptions and targets. Hill had 159 targets, which will be a lot to go around. Kelce was second with 134, but that number will have to increase if the Chiefs plan to get back to the Super Bowl. In four games without Hill in his career, Kelce averaged 87.8 yards per game compared to 76.9 per game when Hill was on the field. The Chiefs also have the highest total on the slate at 29.75 implied points. They added a few extra weapons, but Kelce will be Patrick Mahomes’ main target this week and all season.

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Bust/Fades

QB Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers: DraftKings – $7,000 / 51.5% Bust | FanDuel – $7,800 / 44.3% Bust

Fading the back-to-back MVP of the league, Aaron Rodgers seems rather easy to do this week. There are plenty of question marks regarding this Green Bay Packers team, especially in their receiving core. Losing one of the best wide receivers in Davante Adams will not be an easy replacement. Not only that, but this Packers team prides themselves on using up all of the play clock and running the ball with their two-headed backfield of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. In the past two seasons, the Packers ranked dead last in pace, making it tough for Rodgers to reach his ceiling. Rodgers has the highest bust percentage among quarterbacks on DraftKings and has the third-worst leverage. Another wild card to add to this situation is the Minnesota Vikings’ defense. They ranked 25th in rush DVOA last season, which the Packers will surely take advantage of. A head coach and coordinator change adds an interesting element to this situation, but it’s hard to get behind Rodgers in his first game without Adams.

RB Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings: DraftKings – $7,900 / 58.7% Bust | FanDuel – $8,400 / 47.8% Bust

Similar to Rodgers, Dalvin Cook in that same Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings game has an extremely high bust percentage. Cook had the fifth-most rushing yards last season despite only playing 13 games. The slow pace of the Packers and their improved defense will make things tough for Cook this week. In his lone game against the Packers last season, Cook had 13 rushing yards on nine attempts averaging 1.4 yards per carry. In four of his seven games in this matchup, Cook has failed to go over 50 rushing yards. The Vikings offense will look to feed Justin Jefferson often while also getting red zone threat Irv Smith Jr. back into action. Cook will still get fed the ball, but he will have a very tough time paying off this price tag. He has the lowest leverage among running backs on FanDuel and the second-lowest on DraftKings. Cook’s optimal percentage isn’t even close to that of his peers. Fade Cook and use that money on a different running back in a better situation.

WR Davante Adams – Oakland Raiders: DraftKings – $8,100 / 39.9% Bust | FanDuel – $8,500 / 30.1% Bust

Newly acquired Oakland Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams claimed that going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr was similar to going from one Hall of Famer to another. Carr is coming off of the most passing yards in his career, but he also had a career-high in interceptions. We’ll see how he fairs this year, but it is reasonable that Adams will take a step back even though he is paired with his best friend and college quarterback. For this week, Adams is the highest-priced wide receiver on this slate and also has the worst leverage score. There are some very strong value wide receiver options making this an obvious lineup build of expensive running backs and cheaper wide receivers. Even if you are looking to be contrarian, take a shot with Chase or Jefferson instead of Adams. The Los Angeles Chargers were a run-funnel defense last season as they ranked 30th in rush DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA. There is no problem with taking a wait-and-see approach with Adams.

TE George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers: DraftKings – $5,900 / 53.0% Bust | FanDuel – $6,100 / 35.7% Bust

There is a little growing concern that George Kittle will not play on Sunday as he missed another practice on Thursday with a groin injury. He is on a day-to-day basis leading up to the first game of the season. Kittle is coming in as a positive leverage option, along with several other tight ends, but his injury and this matchup are very concerning. The total in this San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears game is only 41.5 points, which is the lowest on the slate. After going to the NFC Championship game in two of the last three seasons, the 49ers have decided to make Trey Lance the starting quarterback over Jimmy Garoppolo. Kittle has only played five games with Lance under center. During that time he has averaged 54.6 yards and only six targets per game. 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel was Lance’s main target averaging 88.8 yards per game with four touchdowns. With his injury concern and lack of production with Lance at the helm, Kittle is a likely bust for the first week.

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