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NFL DFS Picks Week 12: Derrick Henry SZN Begins Once the Temperatures Drop

Tyler Schmidt



NFL DFS Picks Week 12: Derrick Henry SZN Begins Once Temps Drop

With a successful Thanksgiving slate in the rearview, the main slate is serving up 11 games this week, with some great options to choose from. This article features four boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 12, including Travis Kelce and four bust/fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NFL DFS Picks Week 12: Best High-Upside Plays

NFL DFS Picks Week 12 Boom Picks

QB Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs

DraftKings – $8,200; 8.7% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 10.3% Boom

There is merit to getting exposure to Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and on this 11-game slate. Even with an injured receiving core, Mahomes continues to lead the league in touchdowns with 28 and in yards passing. Mecole Hardman is out, while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are both listed as questionable. As long as Mahomes has Travis Kelce, who leads the Chiefs in every receiving category, it really doesn’t matter. Mahomes is the most expensive quarterback on the slate but has the most fantasy points in Stokastic’s .

The Chiefs have a 29.25 implied point total and are over two touchdown favorites at home against the Rams, who are likely playing with a backup quarterback and without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp. With the second-highest Top Stack Score on the main slate, it is tough not at least a mini stack Mahomes and Kelce this week. Over the last five weeks, Mahomes is averaging 373.4 yards passing per game and has 14 total touchdowns during that time. Mahomes has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the only quarterback over 10%. Prioritize Mahomes on FanDuel, but he is a great play on DraftKings as well.

RB Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans

DraftKings – $8,300; 17.5% Boom | FanDuel – $9,500; 13.7% Boom

In recent years, the colder the weather gets, the better Derrick Henry arrives. This week Henry has the highest boom percentage and leverage score on DraftKings and the third-highest boom percentage on FanDuel. Henry leads the league in yards rushing, and he is the only player who is averaging over 100 yards per game. He has yet to have a touchdown receiving but has one rushing in seven of his 10 games this season. In five of his last seven games, Henry has also rushed for well over 100 yards on the ground with one game even over 200 yards.

The Titans have won seven of their last eight games riding the back of Henry. They have the third-highest run rate in the league and are 1.5-point home underdogs this week against the Bengals. With an implied team total of only 20.5 points, Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections have Henry outside the top 10 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Bengals defense is a slight run-funnel as they rank 10th in pass DVOA and 16th in rush DVOA per football outsiders. Despite his lack of pass catching, prioritize Henry on DraftKings because he is way too cheap and has an 8.1% leverage score.

WR Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins

DraftKings – $8,800; 22.4% Boom | FanDuel – $9,200; 21.4% Boom

The team with the highest Top Stack Rating on the main slate is the Dolphins, with a 100 rating. They are the top stack over a quarter of the time in large part due to how explosive Tyreek Hill is. He leads all pass catchers in the league in receptions with 81 and yards receiving with 1,148. Hill has a touchdown in back-to-back games after not scoring for six straight weeks. In half of his games this season, Hill has over 140 yards receiving. With the ability to break a quick slant to the house, Hill is a nightmare for defensive coordinators. He is the only player with a boom percentage of over 20% on both sites this week.

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With a slate-leading team total of over 30 points, the Dolphins are nearly two touchdown favorites at home against the Texans. They will likely run away with this one using Hill, who has a 29.9% target share, which ranks second in the league. In Stokastic’s on DraftKings, Hill has nearly the same projection as Mahomes, with over 24 points. The Texans defense ranks 29th in total DVOA and has allowed the second-most yards per game in the league. It is very tough to ignore the most explosive player on the slate when his team has over a 30-point implied team total.

TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs

DraftKings – $7,700; 19.6% Boom | FanDuel – $8,200; 23.6% Boom

Pairing Patrick Mahomes with Travis Kelce is one of the best mini stacks on the slate for Week 12. Kelce leads the league in touchdowns with 11 and leads all tight ends in receptions, targets and yards receiving this season. He is on pace for his best season yet and is one touchdown away from a career high. Given how frequently Kelce gets into the end zone, it feels inevitable that he will score again this week since the Chiefs wide receiving group is also banged up. Kelce has the highest boom percentage by far of all tight ends and is easily the best pay-up option, with Mark Andrews still making his way back from injury.

There hasn’t been one game this season where Kelce has not seen seven or more targets. When those targets are coming from the league’s best quarterback, they are much more valuable. The connection between Mahomes and Kelce is undeniable and having a near 30-implied total, Kelce will once again be heavily involved in the Chiefs offensive game plan. He ranks fourth in Stokastic’s latest ownership run on FanDuel, but outside the top 15 on DraftKings. Even though his salary may seem high to pay for a tight end, Kelce is one of the best receiving options on this slate and needs to be prioritized at a weak position.

NFL DFS Picks Week 12 Busts/Fades

QB Justin Fields – Chicago Bears

DraftKings – $7,400; 49.3% Bust | FanDuel – $8,500; 45.8% Bust

The only team with a zero Top Stack Rating is the Bears with quarterback Justin Fields. After back-to-back games of scoring over 40 DraftKings points, Fields came back down to earth last week, with only 23.6 points. Through 11 games, Fields is averaging under 150 yards passing per game and has only thrown over 200 yards once all season. Where Fields thrives is on the ground. He ranks fifth in the entire league in yards rushing and has scored a touchdown rushing in five straight games. The problem is if Fields doesn’t get to 100 yards on the ground, it is tough for him to reach value at this new inflated salary.

Playing against this Jets defense is much tougher than year’s past. Their defense ranks sixth in total DVOA allowing only 18.6 points per game. This game has a 39.5 total, which is the second lowest on the slate. As 5-point underdogs, the Bears have a 17.25 implied team total. Another factor to this fade is Fields is dealing with a shoulder injury. He practiced in a limited fashion, but still that may cause some discomfort throwing the ball or make him more timid to run 15+ times per game. Even if he plays, Fields has a high enough bust percentage that he is worth the fade this week in a tough matchup.

RB Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns

DraftKings – $7,800; 66.1% Bust | FanDuel – $8,100; 48.6% Bust

The Nick Chubb fade worked last week, as he rushed for only 19 yards on 14 carries and failed to reach the end zone for just the third time all season. That is now back-to-back games where Chubb hasn’t done much on the ground. Even though his price has fallen on both sites, Chubb has a very high bust percentage that is well above any of his peers. He still ranks fourth in total yards rushing per game, but his recent struggles paired with a tough matchup makes this a very tough spot to get exposure to Chubb this week. There are too many better options around his pricing tier on this 11-game slate.

This is a difficult matchup on the ground, as the Buccaneers lead the league allowing only 70.7 yards rushing per game. The Browns have one more game with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, and they are implied for less than 20 points and are underdogs this week despite playing at home. After starting the season off 2-1, the Browns have lost six of their last seven games. Similar to Fields this is projected to be another very low scoring game. With Chubb’s workload decreasing and the way to attack the Buccaneers is through the air, take the fade approach yet again this week.

WR Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints

DraftKings – $6,600; 53.1% Bust | FanDuel – $7,300; 45.9% Bust

It is hard to believe that Andy Dalton is still the quarterback of the New Orleans Saints. Even if they made a late switch to Jameis Winston, this is still a spot to fade wide receiver Chris Olave against one of the best defenses in the league with the 49ers. Last week Olave had his third game of over 100 yards receiving, and he continues to lead the Saints in receptions, targets and yards. He may not have the highest bust percentage on the slate, but it is quite high and there is no need to play Olave at an inflated salary in this tough of a matchup this week with an inept quarterback.

The Saints are nearly double-digit underdogs on the road against the 49ers and have an implied team total of only 16.75 points, which is the second lowest on the slate. They have the fourth-lowest Top Stack Rating, as they really only have two offensive weapons to target in fantasy. Alvin Kamara is heavily involved in the Saints offense running and through the air. He is second on the team in target share and leads them by a landslide in touches. Both are in a tough spot against the 49ers defense that ranks seventh in total DVOA. Fade the Saints, but especially Olave in a difficult matchup on the road.

TE George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings – $5,300; 48.6% Bust | FanDuel – $6,200; 38.8% Bust

Fading a tight end this season isn’t all that difficult, so why not fade one that is higher priced and comes with a much tougher decision? That would be 49ers tight end George Kittle. After a very mediocre season dealing with an injury and a lack of production, Kittle finally broke out last week with two touchdowns on only four receptions. He now has four touchdowns receiving in his last four games. Even with a recent hot streak, Kittle has a relatively high bust percentage that isn’t worth getting exposure to, with both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews on this slate.

The 49ers have a 26.25 implied team total, which is the third highest on the slate. However, they have a lot of mouths to feed now that they have acquired Christian McCaffrey. They have won three straight games and are nearly double-digit favorites this week. Late in the season, the 49ers tend to lean more on their running game. They already rank 10th in run rate this season and that number continues to climb with the addition of McCaffrey. With Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, there are not enough balls to go around, especially when Jimmy Garoppolo would rather hand the ball off anyway.

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