This Sunday presents an 11-game slate. This NFL DFS first look article gives an early overview of the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each position.
NFL First Look: Week 12 NFL DFS Picks
Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. LAR ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Playing behind the second largest implied team total on the board (29.25 points), Mahomes undoubtedly brings the highest ceiling on the slate for a quarterback. He ranks fourth in yards per attempt (8.2) and is leading the NFL in touchdowns passing with 28, which is six more than No. 2 Joe Burrow. Mahomes has produced over 30 DraftKings points in 6 of 10 starts this season, including four straight efforts heading into this week, and he has topped 30 DraftKings points in seven of the past 10 games in which the Chiefs had an implied team total of at least 28 points.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. HOU ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Tagovailoa has been extremely efficient this season, leading all quarterbacks in yards per attempt (9.1) and boasting a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Excluding two games he exited due to injury, Tagovailoa is generating 26.2 DraftKings points per game this season. Now comes a gorgeous matchup against the Texans, who are yielding the seventh-most yards per attempt (7.2) and are the second-worst-graded unit on PFF. The Dolphins’ implied team total is the highest on the slate (29.5 points) and Tagovailoa has the potential for over 30 fantasy points in this elite spot.
Kenneth Walker III, SEA vs. LV ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Ever since the Seahawks lost Rashaad Penny (leg) for the season in Week 5, Walker has ranked fourth in the league in carries per game (19.6) and first in red zone rushes (25). Additionally, he has run a route on 55% of his team’s dropbacks and seen a target on 17% of those routes during this five-game span. Walker is averaging 21.4 DraftKings with this role, and he is in a great position this Sunday. The Raiders are the ninth-worst-graded defense on PFF, and on top of the Seahawks presenting the third-highest implied team total on the slate (26.5 points), they are 3.5-point home favorites. Walker should garner at least 20 touches in this setup and is a terrific spend at this current price points.
Latavius Murray, DEN vs. CAR ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Murray is expected to operate as the Broncos’ lead back this Sunday, with Melvin Gordon released and Chase Edmonds (ankle) out. Even with Gordon available for nearly half the snaps last Sunday, Murray led the backfield with 17 carries, including one red zone rush. He also ran a route on 30% of his team’s dropbacks and commanded a target on a very encouraging 40% of those routes. With only Marlon Mack, who has been a healthy scratch for almost every game this season, and possibly Devine Ozigbo, who could be promoted from the practice squad, behind him on the depth chart, Murray should see a minimum of 20 touches this Sunday, with the Broncos 2.5-point favorites over the Panthers. Carolina is the 11th-worst-graded defense on PFF, and Murray is averaging 12 DraftKings points per game over his last 20 in which he saw at least 10 touches. He is a difficult value play to ignore at these low salaries.
Rachaad White, TB vs. CLE ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
With Leonard Fournette (hip) banged up, White should be in store for a large workload this Sunday. Before the Buccaneers’ bye in Week 11, he got the start over Fournette against the Seahawks in Week 10 and racked up 22 carries – including three red zone rushes – while playing 64% of the snaps. White is averaging a solid 0.81 DraftKings points per touch this season and is one of the best running back values on the slate in this plus spot against the Browns. Cleveland is yielding the fifth-most yards per rush (4.8), and it has surrendered the most touchdowns rushing to running backs this season (13).
Davante Adams, LV vs. SEA ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
With some appealing pay down options at running back this week, paying up at receiver is the best route for roster construction. With the Raiders shorthanded in terms of receiving options, most notably with Darren Waller (hamstring) on IR, Adams has seen a godly role, ranking first in target share by a notable gap over the last three weeks (29.1%). Furthermore, the ex-Packer leads the NFL in targets over 20 yards during this time (9) and has racked up three red zone targets. Adams has eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in three consecutive starts and has a real chance to continue this streak this Sunday. This matchup against the Seahawks possesses the highest total on the slate (47.5 points) and the massive volume is almost guaranteed to continue for Adams, with Las Vegas as 3.5-point underdogs in this potential shootout.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. HOU ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Particularly at only $7,300 on DraftKings, Waddle is underpriced for his upside this weekend and is a great option to stack with Tagovailoa. Waddle has been targeted on 23% of his routes this season, including nine targets north of 20 yards and seven red zone targets. In addition to Dolphins having the highest implied team total on the slate (29.5 points), this game’s total is the second largest on the board (46 points). In totals of 45 points or greater throughout his career, Waddle has scored at least 17 DraftKings points in 7 of 16 starts.
Keenan Allen, LAC vs. ARI ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Making his return from a three-game absence Sunday, Allen (hamstring) was heavily utilized, seeing a target on 29% of his routes – including a red zone target – while running a route on 74% of his team’s dropbacks. Mike Williams (ankle) exited this game early, after reaggravating an ankle injury that forced him to miss two contests and certainly has a chance to miss this Sunday’s game as a result. Nonetheless, Allen should increase his snap count and should see enough usage to beat these depressed price tags, even if Williams is active. Allen has gained a target on 25% of his routes this season and this is a plus spot against a Cardinals defense that is the seventh-worst-graded unit on PFF. The Chargers’ implied team total ranks fourth on the slate (25.5 points) and Allen owns a career average of 19 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points (34 games).
Foster Moreau, LV vs. SEA ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
With Waller on the shelf, Moreau has been the Raiders’ featured tight end over the last five games, running a route on 90% of his team’s dropbacks and seeing a target on 17% of those routes, including three red zone targets. As 3.5-point underdogs in this slate high total against the Seahawks (47.5 points), the Raiders should be a pass heavy offense, and Moreau should be able to outproduce these salaries in this juicy matchup for tight ends. This season, Seattle has surrendered the second-most yards (678) and seventh-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends (5).
Jordan Akins, HOU vs. MIA ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
With tight end severely lacking appealing options after Travis Kelce, full punting with Akins at these near minimum price tags makes sense, especially as a cheap bring back option for Dolphins stacks. In his eight games this season, Akins has run a route on 45% of his team’s dropbacks and has garnered a target on 16% of those routes, including four red zone targets. As 12.5-point underdogs, the Texans will inevitably be forced into a pass heavy gameplan and the Dolphins have been vulnerable to tight ends this season, allowing the second-most catches (62) and fourth-most touchdowns to the position (6). While not the most exciting play, Akins could crack double-digit fantasy points this Sunday, which would be a great return at these low salaries.
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