This week features a large 12-game slate with several great options to choose from. There are three games with a total of over 50 points and eight teams that have an implied total of 25 or more points. Expect a high-scoring slate with a lot of different avenues to approach this week. This article features four boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 13, including Amon-Ra St. Brown and four bust/fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.
NFL DFS Picks Week 13: Best High-Upside Plays
NFL DFS Picks Week 13 Boom Picks
QB Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings – $5,900; 10.4% Boom | FanDuel – $7,500; 7.8% Boom
There are several quarterbacks in great spots for Week 13 making this a very intriguing slate. However, the quarterback with the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week is Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence coming off his best game of the year throwing for a season-high 321 yards and three touchdowns. Over the past three games, Lawrence has completed 76.9% of his passes for an average of 271.7 passing yards per game, while throwing six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He will get the opportunity to ride that positive momentum this week against a very poor Lions defense.
It is hard to find a better spot for an offense than playing at the Ford Field dome in Detroit. points seemed to be scored in a frenzy on the fast turf. The Lions are allowing a league-high 414.5 total yards and 28.2 points per game. Their defense ranks 24th in total DVOA making this an exploitable matchup for Lawrence. Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. is also a little banged up, which may lead to more of an aerial attack led by Lawrence. They have the highest Top Stack Rating on FanDuel and the fourth highest on DraftKings. The quarterback position is loaded, but Lawrence still stands out.
RB David Montgomery – Chicago Bears
DraftKings – $6,200; 21.6% Boom | FanDuel – $7,000; 17.2% Boom
Another mid-range player that provides salary savings is Bears running back David Montgomery. With Khalil Herbert out for the season with an injury, Montgomery has played 74.6% of the offensive snaps over the past two weeks. There are two more injuries that could help boost Montgomery’s production. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney is out for the year while quarterback Justin Fields is questionable after missing last week’s game. Regardless of Fields status, this is a great spot for Montgomery who is getting a large chunk of touches on the Bears offense. He has the second-highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel among all position players this week.
This rivalry game could look a lot different if Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers also doesn’t suit up this week. The game total currently sits at 43.5 points with the Bears 4.5-point home underdogs. Even with a relatively low total, Montgomery still pops as the best value position player outside of quarterback in Stokastic’s projections. Playing against the Packers in Week 2 was the only time all season that Montgomery rushed for over 100 yards. Through 12 games, the Packers defense ranks dead last in rush DVOA allowing 154.8 yards per game. Montgomery is a fantastic value this week.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown – Detroit Lions
DraftKings – $7,100; 25.5% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 15.7% Boom
For some reason Amon-Ra St. Brown still feels like a great value as DraftKings refuses to price him up with the elite wide receivers. St. Brown has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel among all position players. Over the last three games, St. Brown is averaging 105.7 receiving yards and 8.7 receptions per game while catching an absurd 89.7% of his passes thrown to him. He also has had one rushing attempt in each of the past three games as the Lions are doing whatever they can to get the ball in the hands of one of their best playmakers.
The Lions have won three-straight games and are in the Ford Field shootout against the Jaguars that has a 51.5-point total. They are implied 26 points and have the highest Top Stack Rating on DraftKings and the third highest on FanDuel. This matchup is going to be one of the best game stacks on the main slate. St. Brown will not be a secret by any means as he is the third-most popular player in Stokastic’s last ownership run on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Jaguars defense ranks 30th in pass DVOA this season, so this is another smash spot for St. Brown in a very high-total game environment.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings – $7,900; 18.6% Boom | FanDuel – $8,400; 23.1% Boom
The tight end position continues to be Travis Kelce or bust. He has gone up $200 on both DraftKings and FanDuel since last week, but still has the highest boom percentage by far on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. After failing to get in the end zone for three-straight weeks, Kelce has scored five touchdowns over the past three weeks as the Chiefs are dealing with a plethora of injuries to their wide receiving core. Mecole Hardman is out, while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are listed as questionable, making Kelce in for another large workload this week.
The Chiefs have the highest implied total on the slate at 27.25 points as they are two-point road favorites against the Bengals. This game will likely be another shootout as the total has creeped up to 52.5 points, which is the highest on the slate. Kelce leads all Chiefs pass catchers in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns. He has reached the end zone a career-high 12 times through only 11 games played. Kelce is the clear-cut best tight end on the slate, but also makes sense as a great value among wide receiver options. Pay up for Kelce and find cheaper options elsewhere with the other stud plays listed above.
NFL DFS Picks Week 13 Busts/Fades
QB Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins
DraftKings – $6,700; 50.1% Bust | FanDuel – $7,800; 47.6% Bust
After throwing three passing touchdowns for three-straight weeks, Tua Tagovailoa had a mediocre game last week as he threw only one touchdown as the Dolphins routed the Texans 30-15. The Dolphins have won five-straight games but find themselves in a very tough matchup this week on the road against the 49ers. This is a crucial part of the Dolphins schedule as they will play the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills all on the road for three-straight weeks. There is a strong chance Tagovailoa finds himself in the fade department again the upcoming weeks as he has one of the highest bust percentages of the week.
The Dolphins have a 21.25 implied team total as they are four-point road underdogs. The 49ers defense ranks fifth in total DVOA this season as they have allowed a league-low 281.7 yards and 15.7 points per game. Over the last four games the 49ers have not allowed a single point scored in the second half, which is absurd in today’s NFL. In the last 16 quarters, the 49ers defense has allowed a total of 40 points, which averages out to 2.5 points per quarter! Brutal matchup for Tagovailoa as the 49ers are 5-1 at home allowing only 8.4 points per game in their five home victories.
RB Saquon Barkley – New York Giants
DraftKings – $8,200; 56.8% Bust | FanDuel – $8,600; 43.7% Bust
Another player in a tough matchup is Giants running back Saquon Barkley. It has been a tough last two weeks for Barkley who has rushed for a total of 61 yards on 26 carries and one touchdown. He has averaged 10.4 DraftKings points per game during that time. Barkley has yet to catch a receiving touchdown and doesn’t have two rushing touchdowns in any week this year, which really limits his ceiling. Barkley has a high bust percentage on both sites this week as he is projected to struggle yet again against a Commanders defense that ranks fourth in rush DVOA this season.
The Giants have an extremely low 19-point implied total as this game has a 40.5 total, which is the second lowest on the slate. Even in a home game with a 7-4 record this season, the Giants are two-point underdogs in this difficult matchup. Over the last seven games the Commanders are 6-1, while only allowing 15.4 points per game. Despite the Giants having the fifth-highest run rate in the league, it is tough to play Barkley in this matchup when he is averaging a very inefficient 3.6 yards per carry over the last six games. The running back position is weak, but there is no need to pay up for Barkley.
WR DK Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings – $6,700; 51.9% Bust | FanDuel – $7,600; 47.1% Bust
It has been a relatively disappointing year for Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf despite the Seahawks holding a 6-5 record. Through 11 games, Metcalf is averaging a pedestrian 61 receiving yards per game, while only catching 64.1% of his targets. To make matters worse, Metcalf has only one game where he had more than 90 receiving yards. With only four touchdowns this season, it has been a struggle all year long. Fellow wide receiver Tyler Lockett leads the Seahawks in receiving yards and touchdowns this season, but both have a very high bust percentage this week.
The Seahawks have a relatively easy matchup against the Rams who have plummeted losing five-straight and seven of their last nine games. Their defense is still decent, but the Seahawks should have no trouble as touchdown road favorites implied for 24.25 points. Even though the Seahawks offense should roll it is tough to see Metcalf having a big game. He was peppered for a season-high 15 targets last week, but only put up 90 receiving yards. It was the fourth time all season that Metcalf had double digit targets and he still is averaging a career-low 11.4 yards per reception. It’s an enticing game but look elsewhere than Metcalf.
TE Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens
DraftKings – $6,600; 45.0% Bust | FanDuel – $7,100; 32.8% Bust
Since the best route to take is paying up for Travis Kelce at tight end, make sure to fade the next closest-priced player on both sites in Mark Andrews. He may still be hurt, or he may be molding into the other tight ends because in his two games since returning from injury, Andrews is only averaging 56.5 receiving yards and 7.5 targets per game. Andrews had double digit targets in four of his first six weeks and hasn’t seen that since Week 6. It is tough to prioritize a player this expensive who doesn’t look how he used to and has a noticeably high bust percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
On DraftKings, the Ravens have one of the worst Top Stack Ratings on the slate despite being seven-point home favorites against the Broncos. Playing against the Broncos defense is not an easy task. They rank fourth in pass DVOA this season allowing only 184.7 passing yards per game. With Rashod Bateman out for the season and no other Ravens pass catcher stepping up, the Broncos will be able to hone in and eliminate Andrews this week. Andrews will continue to be Lamar Jackson‘s security blanket, but use salary elsewhere than in this game that has a slate-low 38.5-point total.
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