Ahead of Sunday’s 10-game slate, this NFL DFS first look article provides an early look at DraftKings and FanDuel main slates and evaluates some of the top options at each position.
NFL First Look: Week 14 NFL DFS Picks
Jared Goff, DET vs. MIN ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
At home and competing in the highest total on the slate (53 points), Goff can’t go wrong at these reasonable price tags. This season, he ranks ninth in yards per attempt (7.5) and 10th in pass touchdowns (19) while only throwing seven interceptions. Notably, Goff is producing 22.3 DraftKings points per game on his home turf this season, which is more than double his production on the road. Minnesota is giving up the most yards per pass attempt in the league (7.6), and the Lions are tied for the second-highest implied team total on the slate (26.5 points). In this gorgeous spot, Goff is a strong bet to throw for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.
Tyler Huntley, BAL vs. PIT ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Lamar Jackson (knee) is unlikely to play this Sunday, leaving Huntley as the Raven’s starting quarterback. After Jackson exited in the first quarter last Sunday, Huntley completed 84% of passes and also rushed the ball 10 times, en route to 16.6 DraftKings points against the Broncos. Including this outing, Huntley is averaging 17.3 DraftKings points per game when he plays at least 85% of the snaps for his career, with nine carries per game in these contests. The Steelers are yielding the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.3), and when combining this elite passing matchup with Huntley’s willingness as a rusher, he is a terrific bargain at these soft price points.
Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAX ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
After back-to-back subpar showings, Henry should bounce back this Sunday. He ranks first in carries per game (21.5) and sixth in red zone rushes among running backs (29) while logging 64% of the snaps this season. Henry’s usage as a receiver has also improved from previous seasons, seeing a target on 22% of his routes while running a route on 42% of his team’s dropbacks. This Jaguars defense Henry meets this weekend is the ninth-worst-graded defense on PFF and the Titans are 3.5-point favorites. Over the last three seasons, Henry has responded with 22.4 DraftKings points per game when Tennessee has been favored.
D’Andre Swift, DET vs. MIN ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
After being limited for multiple games, Swift was finally set free this past Sunday, carrying the ball 14 times – including five red zone attempts – while logging 51% of the snaps, which is his highest snap rate since Week 8. Swift’s 14 carries were 51.9% of the Lions running back carries in the win and he was also very active as a receiver, garnering a target on 27% of his routes while running a route on 51% of his team’s dropbacks. Considering Swift came out of this game unharmed, the expanded role should continue for him this Sunday and he should thrive in this slate-high total against the Vikings (53 points). Swift has been extremely efficient this season, ranking third in DraftKings points per touch (1.37) and seventh in DraftKings points per snap among running backs (0.49), and owns a career average of 16.1 DraftKings points per game when competing in a total of 50 points or greater (16 games).
Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. DEN ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Pacheco has become the Chiefs’ featured back and is way underpriced for the upside he brings with this role. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) on IR and out for the last two games, Pacheco has seen 18 carries per game, which is 75% of the Chiefs running back carries. Specifically, he had 14 red zone rushes during this two-game span, which is the most among running backs over the last two weeks by a notable five carries. With the Chiefs as 9-point favorites, Pacheco should see close to 20 touches this weekend and is an appealing, affordable way to attack this Kansas City offense that is tied for the second-largest implied team total on the slate (26.5 points).
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. MIN ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)
Stacking Goff and St. Brown is a no-brainer in this slate-high total against the Vikings (53 points). St. Brown has been targeted on 32% of his routes this season and ranks 10th among receivers in red zone targets (13). As expected, given Goff’s dramatic home/away splits, St. Brown has also been a far better fantasy asset at home this season, generating 25.8 DraftKings points per game. Not only is Minnesota surrendering the most yards per pass in the league (7.6), but it is also giving up the most catches (177) and yards to receivers this season (2,436 yards). In this incredible spot, St. Brown is a real threat to exceed 30 DraftKings points for the third consecutive week.
Christian Kirk, JAX vs. TEN ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Wide receivers have shredded the Titans this season, as they are allowing the most touchdowns (17), second-most yards (2,308) and fourth-most receptions to the position (170). This season, Kirk is leading the Jaguars with a 26% target share and ranks fourth in the league in red zone targets (17). As a 3.5-point underdog, Jacksonville should be forced into a pass heavy gameplan and Kirk has been stellar when an underdog this season, averaging 19.5 DraftKings points per game (10 games).
Michael Gallup, DAL vs. HOU ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Gallup is an appealing and affordable way to attack the Cowboys’ massive 31-point implied team total, which is the highest on the slate by nearly 5 points. Since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7, Gallup has seen a target on 20% of his routes while running a route 86% of his team’s dropbacks. During this six-game span, Gallup has racked up five red zone targets and five targets over 20 yards. This Texans defense he is facing is the second-worst-graded defense on PFF, and Gallup is averaging 13.5 DraftKings points per game for his career when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points (29 games).
T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. DET ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Since being acquired by the Vikings, Hockenson has seen excellent usage, gaining a target on 23% of his routes while running a route on 86% of his team’s dropbacks. During this five-game stretch, Hockenson has seen eight red zone targets, but has only caught one touchdown. Positive regression is coming soon, possibly as soon as this Sunday against his former team in the Lions. Detroit is not only giving up the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.3), but it has also surrendered the second-most touchdowns to tight ends this season (8).
Mitchell Wilcox, CIN vs. CLE ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
Hayden Hurst (calf) is doubtful to play this weekend, making Wilcox the Bengals’ top tight end. With Hurst only playing 12% of the snaps last Sunday, Wilcox ran a route on 64% of his team’s dropbacks. He only saw one target but was the only tight end on the Bengals to run a route after Hurst exited. When given a chance, Wilcox has delivered this season, catching all seven of his targets, and there will be opportunities for him this Sunday with the starting role, given Joe Burrow has targeted tight ends 16% of the time this season. While Wilcox lacks real upside, he absolutely has a chance to outperform these near minimum salaries in this matchup with the Browns that sports the second-highest total on the slate (47.5 points).
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