NFL DFS Picks Week 5: Chris Godwin & Tyler Higbee Bring Highest Boom Percentages on Sunday Slate (October 9)

The story of the NFL DFS slates thus far has been one game going absolutely nuclear that you needed to stack. Finding that specific game is always the tricky part, but hopefully one of the players listed below will lead you on the right path to success.

With a few really good games on this slate, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust.

Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.

NFL DFS Picks Week 5: Best High-Upside Plays

Boom Picks

QB Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills

DraftKings – $8,200; 18.1% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 21.0% Boom

First, let’s look to the most expensive quarterback on the slate this week, Bills superstar Josh Allen. Last week was the only week thus far in which Allen did not surpass 30 DraftKings points. The Bills came from behind to beat the Ravens in a game filled with plenty of rain, making it difficult to throw the ball. Allen still finished with one passing and rushing touchdown, while rushing for a season-high 70 yards on 11 attempts. Expect a bounce-back performance this week, as the Bills have the highest implied total on the slate with 30.25 points. They are favored by over two touchdowns in a home matchup against the Steelers who have lost three-straight games including last week against the Jets.

Allen comes into this week leading the slate on FanDuel with a 21% boom percentage while ranking third on DraftKings. His leverage score is above 5% on both sites as he is the clear best option at the quarterback position. Without TJ Watt, this Steelers’ defense doesn’t put much fear into any of their opponents. Playing at home, where the Bills last put up 41 points against the Titans, proves their incredible ceiling. With the cheaper quarterback options paying off recently, Allen’s ownership may dip a little too low in this spot. Getting Gabe Davis fully healthy will only help this passing attack. There are plenty of options to pair with Allen this week, but Stefon Diggs still remains the top target with a 24.1% target share.

RB Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints

DraftKings – $6,600; 14.0% Boom | FanDuel – $7,000; 16.0% Boom

After being a surprise inactive last Sunday in London, Saints running back Alvin Kamara claims he is good to go for this week. We have yet to see that true Kamara breakout game yet, but he comes in with the highest boom percentage at the running back position for both sites this week. Seeing his price dip this low, Kamara is a great option in all formats. This Saints team needs to get back on track after losing three-straight games. Kamara was only able to play in two games and wasn’t utilized to the best of his ability. The Saints may still be without Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas this week as both missed practice on Thursday, but that can help Kamara’s usage being the lone star in this offense.

Coming in as nearly a touchdown home favorite against the Seahawks, Kamara will likely be used early and often, as the Seahawks rank 21st in defensive DVOA this season. They have allowed the second-most yards and points per game through the first four weeks. Under quarterback Andy Dalton, the Saints may not put up a ton of points, but Kamara will be so involved that may not matter. Especially on DraftKings, Kamara’s pass game usage should be extremely high with several screen plays and dump-offs out of the backfield. If Kamara is fully healthy and playing without Thomas, this price tag is simply too low. It has been a rough start to the season, but this is a great matchup to get back on track.

WR Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DraftKings – $5,900; 19.4% Boom | FanDuel – $7,000; 10.2% Boom

It is a little tough to get behind this Tampa Bay offense that looks lost at times, but they are grading out so well in our tools this week. The Buccaneers have the second-highest total on the slate as they get a home cupcake matchup against the Falcons where they are nearly double-digit favorites. Talk about poor defenses. The Falcons rank 30th in defensive DVOA this season but are riding high after back-to-back wins. Without further ado, Chris Godwin has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings this week. His price is considerably cheaper on DraftKings, but Godwin also has the highest leverage on both sites. He can be played in all formats on DraftKings, but keep him to tournaments on FanDuel.

This Buccaneers’ wide receiving core continues to be banged up, including Godwin. However, he is coming off of a double-digit target performance last week and is way too cheap for the upside that he provides. Godwin is incredible in short and medium route packages, which is where quarterback Tom Brady loves to go. Expect a majority of the touchdowns to still go to Mike Evans, but if Godwin can rack up another seven-to-10 catches and get close to 100 receiving yards, he is impossible to ignore on this slate. In his most recent game against the Falcons, Godwin had 15 receptions on 17 targets for 143 yards and no touchdowns. A repeat performance similar to that game would be absolutely perfect.

TE Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles Rams

DraftKings – $4,300; 18.5% Boom | FanDuel – $5,500; 14.5% Boom

With Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller not on the Sunday main slate, the tight end position looks extremely thin. Rams tight end Tyler Higbee is going to get steamed with high ownership mainly due to the limited options, but also how involved he has been thus far in the Rams offense. There is no denying Cooper Kupp is the main attraction for the Rams’ aerial attack, but Higbee has a career-high 25.3% target share through the first four weeks. That is the second-highest for tight ends in the league and on the Rams while being over double of Allen Robinson‘s target share. Higbee had a career-high 10 catches last game on 14 targets and is primed for another high-target game if the Cowboys key in on Kupp this week.

The Cowboys can pressure Kupp with Trevon Diggs, who led the league in interceptions last year and even provide some help over the top. They rank second in the league in pass-defense DVOA, so this could be a situation where quarterback Matthew Stafford really targets Higbee in between the linebackers. Among all players on the main slate, Higbee has the second-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and has the highest for tight ends on both sites. With limited tight end options, Higbee at these prices seems like an absolute steal, especially in lineups where you would rather fade the Kupp ownership. He will be the security blanket for Stafford facing this Cowboys pass rush that ranks tied for second in sacks.

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Busts/Fades

QB Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks

DraftKings – $5,500; 44.1% Bust | FanDuel – $6,900; 47.1% Bust

If you didn’t have any of the Seahawks and Lions game last week, you simply did not win. Quarterback Geno Smith was a big part of those builds, as he finished with three total touchdowns and threw for 320 yards for the second straight week. He added nearly 50 rushing yards on his way to a 34.7 DraftKings points performance. Smith took advantage of a defense that has allowed the most yards and points per game to their opponents. This week will be much different, as the Saints are playing at home and rank ninth in defense DVOA this season. The Seahawks may rank third in offensive DVOA and pass DVOA thus far, but this is a very tough spot for Smith and the Seahawks.

For Week 5, Smith comes in with the worst leverage at the quarterback position on DraftKings and the third-worst on FanDuel. A performance similar to what we saw against the Broncos and 49ers is what to expect this week for Smith. He may not have written back yet, but he is still a career backup quarterback playing on a below-average team. Don’t be that person who thinks what Smith did last week is what we will see moving forward. Historically, playing in New Orleans has been extremely difficult for the away team. With wide receiver weapons like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Smith should be decent for a punt quarterback play, but don’t be expecting anywhere near a slate-breaking performance this week.

RB Dameon Pierce – Houston Texans

DraftKings – $6,200; 44.6% Bust | FanDuel – $7,500; 45.3% Bust

Another relatively cheap player on both DraftKings and FanDuel who we are fading is Texans running back Dameon Pierce, who had a great week last week. The rookie running back had his first game over 100 rushing yards mainly due to one play where he housed a 75-yard touchdown. Pierce is a very talented rookie, but with a team total of 18.25 points, it is tough to trust anyone in this Texans offense playing against the Jaguars. The Texans still rank 30th in offensive DVOA this season, as they have the sixth-lowest total yards per game. Pierce has by far the worst leverage score on the entire slate. He is expected for well into the double digits for ownership but is only optimal around 5% of the time.

The Jaguars are playing some very stout defense to start the year. They rank sixth in defensive DVOA, as they have limited their opponents to an average of under 100 rushing yards per game. One area where Pierce may succeed is in the passing game. After not having more than two targets for the first three games, Pierce had six receptions on six targets last week. To pay off this rising price tag, Pierce will likely need several receptions again and to at least find the end zone. His breakaway speed provides a boom-or-bust nature. In this spot on the road where the Texans are a touchdown underdog, it’s hard to pay this salary for Pierce. There are plenty of other great options this week at the running back position.

WR Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins

DraftKings – $6,700; 47.1% Bust | FanDuel – $7,700; 43.7% Bust

The main conversation for this Dolphins team is obviously the status of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered a nasty concussion in the Thursday Night Football game last week. With Tagovailoa out this week, the Dolphins will look to backup Teddy Bridgewater, who came in and was serviceable against the Bengals. However, the biggest downside to Bridgewater now starting at quarterback is that Jaylen Waddle was simply not involved at all last week. He only had five targets all game and a season-low two receptions for 39 yards. Fellow wide receiver Tyreek Hill continued to see all the action as he had a season-high 14 targets and 160 receiving yards. Both wide receivers are also still dealing with a bit of an injury but will play.

Waddle comes into this week as the third-worst leverage on DraftKings for wide receivers and the fourth-worst on FanDuel. His target share of 25% is inflated due to the Week 2 shootout against the Ravens where Waddle had a career-high 19 targets, as he caught two touchdowns with 171 receiving yards. In the other three weeks, Waddle is averaging only 5.3 targets per game. A matchup against the Jets, who rank 29th in pass defense, DVOA isn’t a difficult test, but this is a completely different situation with Bridgewater starting. Fading such a dynamic wide receiver like Waddle can be risky, but there are so many other great options at that position on this main slate.

TE Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings – $5,600; 57.3% Bust | FanDuel – $6,500; 46.5% Bust

With several people taking the Bills stacks, Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth may enter the conversation as a popular bring-back, especially when the tight end position is so weak. However, Freiermuth has the worst leverage score of any non-running back on this slate. He is projected for double-digit ownership on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage is only 3.4%. He is coming off a season-high seven receptions for 85 yards in Week 4. Even though he has a double-digit DraftKings point total in three of his four games, Freiermuth has only scored one touchdown. The worst part is the matchup against the Bills, who rank second in defensive DVOA and first in pass defense DVOA.

Similar to Waddle and the Dolphins, a quarterback change may not be a good thing for Freiermuth and the Steelers offense, as it will be very interesting to see how the target share is distributed now that Kenny Pickett is the starting quarterback over Mitch Trubisky. Pickett came in relief last game and ended up with two rushing touchdowns, but only threw for 120 yards and was picked off three times in only 13 passing attempts. Freiermuth currently ranks second on the Steelers with a 23.3% target share, but Pickett seemed to have a strong connection to fellow rookie wide receiver George Pickens, who surpassed 100 receiving yards last week. With this matchup and a bit of an unknown target share, it is worth fading the popular Freiermuth.

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