NFL DFS Picks Week 6: Fade Dalvin Cook & Mike Evans on the Week 6 Sunday Slate (October 16)

Week 6 of the NFL season features one of the best main slates that we have had on DraftKings and FanDuel all season. The main attraction will be an AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. There are still several ways to differentiate your lineups this week as we will cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at every position!

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NFL DFS Picks Week 6: Best High-Upside Plays

Boom Picks

QB Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills

DraftKings – $8,200; 11.9% Boom | FanDuel – $9,200; 14.8% Boom

The game of the week to target and arguably what could be the game of the year is this matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. With a slate-leading total set at 54 points, ownership will likely flock to these incredible quarterback options. Bills quarterback Josh Allen leads the way in boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel to no surprise. He is the most expensive quarterback on the slate but has averaged 32.1 DraftKings points per game while reaching 30+ in four of his five games this season. Last week, Allen set a career-high with 424 passing yards and four touchdowns as the Bills steamrolled the Steelers 38-3. It is tough to to get away from Allen in this potential shootout.

Despite being on the road, the Bills are 2.5-point favorites as they have a slate-high 28.25 implied point total. The Chiefs have allowed 25 points and the ninth-most passing yards per game. Their defense rank 19th in pass DVOA and ninth in run DVOA this season. Allen leads the league with 330 passing yards per game and is the only starting quarterback who averages over 300. In two career games at Arrowhead Stadium, Allen has an 0-2 record but has thrown for an average of 322 yards per game with eight total touchdowns. Now that wide receiver Gabriel Davis is fully healthy and tight end Dawson Knox is expected back, Allen will have all of his weapons in this epic game on Sunday afternoon.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots

DraftKings – $6,000; 24.9% Boom | FanDuel – $7,500; 16.5% Boom

There are a few value running back options on this main slate, but Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson gets the nod as the highest boom percentage play overall on DraftKings and the top running back on FanDuel. The status of fellow running back teammate Damien Harris is one to watch as he was limited in practice again on Thursday after leaving last week’s game early. Stevenson will be a solid play if Harris is able to go, but is a smash play if Harris were to sit. When Harris left last week it was the Stevenson show, as he rushed for a career-high 161 yards on 25 carries. Each week this season, Stevenson has received more carries. Add on five targets in two of his last three games, and Stevenson is a great value this week.

Playing against the Browns has been a running back’s dream to start the season. They rank a league-worst 32nd in run DVOA while ranking in the middle of the pack in pass DVOA. Being a run-funnel defense sets up perfectly for what the Patriots want to do offensively, especially if they have to play third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe for another week. As a rookie last season, Stevenson rushed for 100 yards and two touchdowns in a Patriots 45-7 victory over the Browns. As of right now, Harris is not playing this week. However, I can’t stress enough how important that news is for Stevenson this week. If Harris is unable to go, Stevenson is a cash game lock and a strong tournament play even if his ownership spikes.

WR Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams

DraftKings – $9,700; 20.9% Boom | FanDuel – $9,400; 23.5% Boom

Once again the most expensive option on the slate is Rams wide receiver, Cooper Kupp. With a 33% target share, Kupp has one game thus far with fewer than double-digit targets. He leads the league with 49 receptions and ranks second in receiving yards with 527 through the first five games. With so many expensive options in the Chiefs and Bills game, Kupp may go overlooked, which would be a big mistake. Kupp has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings this week. Despite having a 2-3 record, the Rams are double-digit home favorites against the Panthers with an implied total of 25.75 points. Expect another heavy dose of Kupp this week as the Rams look to get back on track.

Over the past two games, the Rams have failed to score more than 10 points, however, that hasn’t stopped Kupp from being super effective, as he has averaged 10.5 receptions and 123.5 yards per game during that time. Kupp is averaging 29 DraftKings points per game, which is absurd even for this steep price tag. The Panthers’ defense comes into this week ranking 22nd in pass DVOA. They will have their work cut out for them trying to slow down Kupp. Even though Kupp is a great option on DraftKings where he gets a full point per reception, he has the third-highest leverage score on FanDuel, as he comes in the optimal lineup a slate-high 26.3% of the time. Kupp may be expensive, but he is a lock for nearly 30 DraftKings points each week.

TE Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings – $7,000; 18.0% Boom | FanDuel – $7,800; 17.9% Boom

After an abysmal tight end slate last week, we have both Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews on the main slate this week. Despite not being in the highest total on the week, Andrews will get the nod as he has the highest boom percentage at the position by a comfortable margin. Through five weeks, Andrews has been extremely boom or bust. Either he is seeing double-digit targets or he will be lucky to get past 50 receiving yards. The savings from going down to Andrews from Kelce on both DraftKings and FanDuel will come in handy as pricing seems to be a little tight this week. Many watched Kelce score four touchdowns on Monday night, which may drive up his ownership, but Andrews is the preferred tight end option in Week 6.

Not many expected the Giants to have a better record than the Ravens coming into this game, even though the Ravens are still over .500 this season. The Giants may be 4-1, but their defense still ranks 24th in pass DVOA. Andrews ranks fourth among the entire league with a 30.9% target share. After Andrews, the next closest Ravens player is wide receiver Rashod Bateman, who has a 14.8% targets share. Being the security blanket of quarterback Lamar Jackson has been a comfortable position to be in for Andrews throughout his career. The Ravens are six-point road favorites this week with a 25.5 implied team total. One of my favorite tournament strategies this week is stacking up the Chiefs and Bills game, but instead of using Kelce, take the savings with Andrews to get different.

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Busts/Fades

QB Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

DraftKings – $6,700; 46.4% Bust | FanDuel – $8,000; 47.3% Bust

After a surprise visit to the Super Bowl last season, the Bengals are off to a slow 2-3 start. Their offense ranks 25th in DVOA as they have only scored 21.6 points per game. Quarterback Joe Burrow ranks outside the top 10 in passing yards and has been sacked the fifth-most of any quarterback. Burrow also ranks 19th in QBR, so it has been a rough start to his third season after throwing a career-high 34 touchdowns last year. With wide receiver weapons like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, fading Burrow may seem a little risky, but he is barely averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game while still being priced in the upper tier of quarterbacks. Wait until the salary bumps down for Burrow and this offense.

Playing at the Superdome in New Orleans is usually not a place where it seems smart to play a road quarterback. The Saints’ defense ranks 13th in DVOA through five games and has 10 sacks. With an optimal percentage below 5% on both sites and a relatively high bust percentage, it is tough to play Burrow even in tournaments with so many great quarterback options on the main slate. The Bengals are two-point road favorites, but the total is only 43 points, which is one of the lowest of the week. Burrow may get the hometown narrative, as he played college ball at LSU, but these rowdy Saints fans will put that behind them in what should be a great atmosphere in the Superdome on Sunday.

RB Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings

DraftKings – $7,500; 61.2% Bust | FanDuel – $8,300; 51.2% Bust

Paying up at the running back position has yet to really work out this season. When looking at the Boom/Bust tool, it is obvious that the best route to take this week is paying down at running back and getting to the elite wide receivers and tight ends. On DraftKings, nine of the top 11 running backs have a negative leverage score, while eight of the top nine do on FanDuel. The best running back fade this week is Vikings’ Dalvin Cook, who has the highest bust percentage of all the top running back options. Cook had a hot start last week, scoring a touchdown on the first two Vikings drives. He and the Vikings’ offense stalled out in the second half as they barely hung out to beat the Bears at home.

This week, Cook and the Vikings welcome the Dolphins to the Twin Cities. They are 6.5-point home favorites as the Dolphins will likely be playing with their third-string quarterback. One of the biggest concerns with playing Cook this week is the emergence of Alexander Mattison. Last week, Cook only played 11 more snaps than Mattison and his targets are declining rapidly. Cook only recorded four total targets in his last two games. That is not a great sign moving forward, especially when the Dolphins are a pass-funnel defense this season. The Dolphins’ defense ranks seventh in run DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA. With one of the best wide receivers in the league, Justin Jefferson being in such a great spot, the Vikings may lean on the aerial attack in this spot if Cook is unable to get anything going on the ground.

WR Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DraftKings – $7,000; 56.7% Bust | FanDuel – $7,700; 48.0% Bust

Something looks a little off with the Buccaneers’ offense, but they are still putting up impressive passing numbers, ranking third in the league in yards. Despite the high statistics, the Buccaneers are barely averaging over 20 points per game. Mike Evans leads the team yet again in receiving yards and touchdowns with three. Last year, Evans posted a career-high 14 touchdowns and over 1,000 receiving yards for the eighth-straight season. This week, Evans has one of the highest bust percentages at the wide receiver position paired with an extremely low boom percentage. When looking at his optimal percentage, he has a 4.6% rate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Take your chances with the other great receiving options.

The Buccaneers are eight-point road favorites against the Steelers this week with a 26.25 implied team total. Even with the high total, Evans has the highest bust percentage on DraftKings among all wide receivers priced over $6,000. After a Week 1 win over the Bengals, the Steelers have lost four-straight games, as they just lost to the Bills 38-3 last week. Without defensive end T.J. Watt, this Steelers’ defense hasn’t been able to get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but for what it’s worth they do play much tougher at home versus on the road. A 14% target share is very low for Evans this season. He ranks below Russell Gage and running back Leonard Fournette. There are better options than going with Evans this week.

QB/TE Taysom Hill – New Orleans Saints

DraftKings – $5,100; 89.9% Bust | FanDuel – $7,500; 94.6% Bust

Let’s get ahead of this situation before it gets out of control. Saints quarterback/tight end Taysom Hill went nuclear in his last game, rushing for over 100 yards while scoring three touchdowns. He is still only quarterback eligible on DraftKings, but FanDuel has moved him to tight end eligible, so he may draw some attention from game-log watchers. Hill currently leads the Saints in rushing yards this season and was the offensive player of the week in the NFC. However, taking Hill in DFS is a major reach that simply isn’t worth it. There are too many great tight end and quarterback options on this slate. Even on FanDuel, Hill’s price is near the elites, which makes no sense. He has the highest bust percentage of all players on both sites this week.

Despite the incredible game last week, Hill only played 33.8% of the offensive snaps. That snap share was the most all season and his breakout game may garner him more snaps this week, but his salary makes it tough to get to him. The Saints’ wide receivers is another situation to monitor. Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave have all missed practice this week, while quarterback Jameis Winston is posting limited practices. The Bengals rank eighth in defense DVOA this season, as they have only allowed 17.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Saints only have a 20.5 implied team total this week. Fading Hill may seem obvious after diving into the play, but there is no need to try and get cute at the tight end and quarterback position this week.

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