NFL DFS Picks Week 7: Lamar Jackson, Josh Jacobs Best Boom Plays (October 23)

With bye weeks starting to enter the equation, the main slates are starting to shrink in terms of options. Week 7 may be one of the toughest weeks yet, but there are still several ways to differentiate your lineups this week as we will cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at every position!

Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.

NFL DFS Picks Week 7: Best High-Upside Plays

Boom Picks

QB Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings – $8,000; 13.8% Boom | FanDuel – $8,800; 16.7% Boom

By far the best quarterback play on the Sunday main slate according to our boom/bust tool is Ravens star, Lamar Jackson. This is an interesting spot for Jackson as tight end Mark Andrews and running back J.K. Dobbins haven’t practiced on Wednesday or Thursday this week. Monitor their practice status on Friday, but if both are out that will change things for Jackson. Let’s break it down. Andrews is the biggest loss for Jackson as he ranks third in the entire league with a 31.5% targets share. He is Jackson’s security blanket. With Dobbins potentially out, Kenyan Drake will take a majority of the running back carries. Drake rushed for 100 yards last game and a touchdown, but this will likely lead to more Jackson rushing attempts. Jackson has averaged a career-high 8.1 yards per rush this season, which makes his floor incredibly high.

Not only is Jackson the only quarterback with a double-digit boom percentage, but he also has an extremely high leverage score and optimal percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Jackson coming in with the fifth-highest projected ownership on this slate feels wrong. The Browns rank 31st in Defense DVOA through six weeks and the Ravens are nearly touchdown favorites at home. Getting wide receiver Rashod Bateman back from injury could help replace some of the production from Andrews if he is out. If Andrews is playing, Jackson is an absolute smash play in this spot. Andrews leads all players on FanDuel with the highest boom percentage. A situation to monitor, but Jackson is a great play regardless.

RB Josh Jacobs – Las Vegas Raiders

DraftKings – $6,500; 28.4% Boom | FanDuel – $8,600; 16.4% Boom

Ranking third in the league in rushing yards per game is Raiders running back Josh Jacobs. He has really exploded in the last two games, rushing for an average of 149 rushing yards per game with three touchdowns. Getting Jacobs more carries has really been the key to success for this Raiders offense. Jacobs has also been heavily involved in the passing game with five receptions in each of his last three games. With Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow not practicing on Thursday, Jacobs could get even more targets out of the backfield this week. Having that dual eligibility threat is why Jacobs is the highest-owned player on the slate and in a smash spot for a very reasonable salary on both sites.

The Raiders are seven-point home favorites against the Texans with an implied point total of 26.25 points. Through five weeks, the Texans rank 29th in both Rush DVOA and rushing yards allowed per game. It is tough to see Jacobs failing in this matchup, making him a cash game staple this week, especially on DraftKings. On FanDuel, a fade could make sense given his high salary, but DraftKings at $6,500 is impossible to get away from. Jacobs has a slate-high 28.4% boom percentage on DraftKings and a ridiculous 37% optimal percentage. Fading him in tournaments is a risky strategy that I wouldn’t recommend, but if you plan to do so, play Davante Adams as a leverage play.

WR CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings – $6,800; 18.2% Boom | FanDuel – $7,700; 14.4% Boom

Arguably the best offense on the slate is the Dallas Cowboys, who have a slate-high 28 implied point total as they are seven-point home favorites against the Detroit Lions. After getting injured in game one of the regular season, quarterback Dak Prescott is expected to return this week. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush more than held his own as he peppered wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb. Through six weeks, Lamb leads the entire league with a 32.4% target share. With 60 targets already registered, Lamb is halfway to the career-high 120 he had last season. Even with the targets, Lamb ranks 15th in the league in receiving yards. Rush was solid, but getting Prescott back under center has to be significant for Lamb.

For this week, Lamb has the third-highest boom percentage and ownership on DraftKings. What a perfect game for Prescott to come back. The Lions rank last in Defense DVOA and have allowed the most yards at 428.6 per game. With averaging 10 targets per game this season, Lamb has a chance to break the slate in this matchup with that much opportunity. Hopefully, the targets keep coming with Prescott, but these targets are much more catchable. It has been a great start to his third season in the league, but he has yet to have that massive breakout game like the other top wide receivers. A matchup against the Lions’ secondary can certainly help with that potential breakout game this week.

TE Greg Dulcich – Denver Broncos

DraftKings – $2,500; 26.1% Boom | FanDuel – $4,000; 17.4% Boom

Despite Andrews and Travis Kelce being on the slate, let’s pay down for Broncos rookie tight end Greg Dulcich. Seems crazy right? Well, we already spoke about Andrews’ injury situation and the Chiefs play on the road against the 49ers, so this is as good of a spot all season to pay down at tight end. In his first game back from injury last week, Dulcich caught a 39-yard touchdown to finally get the Broncos on the board. He may be the spark that the Broncos need, as their offense is averaging a league-worst 15.2 points per game. Dulcich has the second-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. At the stone minimum on both sites, Dulcich is an incredible value play.

The total in this Broncos and Jets slugfest is a slate-low 38 points. It is going to be difficult to talk about this game too much, but priced so low it doesn’t take much for Dulcich to return value. A few catches may get it done on this slate and if he reaches pay dirt again this week, it’s gravy. Stokastic projects Dulcich for a little over 10 DraftKings points this week, making him by far the best value on the slate. Normally recommending a tight end in the flex is a bad cash and tournament strategy, but if Andrews is healthy, it makes sense to play Dulcich with Andrews for the salary relief. Pretty tough to ignore the optimal percentage, which is over 20% on DraftKings and FanDuel for Dulcich this week.

Busts/Fades

QB Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs

DraftKings – $7,800; 46.9% Bust | FanDuel – $8,500; 37.3% Bust

Fading arguably the best quarterback in the league can be risky, but being priced close to Lamar Jackson, it is very difficult to get to Patrick Mahomes this week. The biggest drawback to Mahomes is the matchup on the road against the 49ers, who rank third in Defense DVOA this season. As a defense, the 49ers have allowed only 255.8 yards per game, which is the lowest in the entire league. They just made a crazy trade to land one of the best running backs in Christian McCaffrey, so this stadium will be rocking for this game on Sunday. With a team total of 25.5 points, Mahomes may be intriguing as a low-owned tournament pivot, but he has the highest bust percentages among the elites at the quarterback position.

For Mahomes, it is usually Kelce or bust. He leads the Chiefs with a 22.6% target share and leads the league with seven receiving touchdowns. Outside of Kelce, this receiving core with new off-season acquisitions JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been very disappointing. Rookie Skyy Moore may be passing either of them sooner rather than later, but if Kelce is shut down, Mahomes will struggle. This will be Mahomes’ toughest defensive test of the season and the first time playing at San Francisco in his career. His salary came down a little bit due to the matchup, but not enough. Fade the difficult spot on the road for Mahomes this week.

RB Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts

DraftKings – $8,100; 67.7% Bust | FanDuel – $8,000; 46.4% Bust

We go from fading the best quarterback in the league to fading the best running back in the league last season in the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. What is going on? After missing back-to-back weeks due to injury, Taylor is expected to return for the Colts in a tough road matchup against the Titans. Not only is he back, but so is backup running back Nyheim Hines. It has been a tough start to the season for Taylor through his first four games. If you take out his first game against the Texans where he surpassed 160 yards on the ground against that pitiful defense, he is averaging 55.6 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. To make matters worse, he doesn’t even have a touchdown during that time.

This matchup against the Titans is not one you want to see on the schedule when you are struggling on offense. The Titans’ defense is a pass funnel where they rank 29th in Pass DVOA and third in Rush DVOA. Given how Taylor hasn’t been involved in the passing game at all so far is a major concern. Most of that lack of success could be due to how bad Matt Ryan has been in his first season with the Colts. Ryan ranks second in the league in interceptions and fourth in sacks taken. Taylor has the worst leverage score on the slate on FanDuel and the third-worst among running backs on DraftKings. The name itself may be worth a roster spot, but the lack of production for an expensive running back is concerning.

WR Mike Williams – Los Angeles Chargers

DraftKings – $7,200; 54.1% Bust | FanDuel – $7,800; 44.2% Bust

After getting absolutely clamped on Monday Night Football by Broncos defensive back Patrick Surtain, Mike Williams pops up as a strong fade candidate this week. There are several reasons to be concerned with Williams. For starters, the obvious is his high bust percentage, which is the highest for any wide receiver on DraftKings priced over $6,100. Next, the involvement of Austin Ekeler has increased in each of the last three games from 19, 20 and 24 touches last week. Ekeler tied his career-high 16 targets last week in a 19-16 Chargers victory. Another factor is the return of Keenan Allen, who should be back this week. Last season, Allen led the Chargers in target share and caught over 100 balls.

Of course, the matchup against the Seahawks who rank 22nd in Defense DVOA this season is a much better spot than on the road in Denver, but those factors above make it tough to roster Mike Williams. Quarterback Justin Herbert also hasn’t looked his best this year, as he has a career-low QBR and quarterback rating. Herbert is on pace for career-low passing touchdowns this season as well. Williams is a typical boom/bust player. He has three games where he has over 110 receiving yards and three where he has under 20 receiving yards. We’ll take the fade approach with Williams this week with all of the factors listed above. This offense doesn’t need a big Williams game to be successful.

TE T.J. Hockenson  – Detroit Lions

DraftKings – $4,800; 51.2% Bust | FanDuel – $6,200; 48.8% Bust

The tight end with the highest bust percentage who is fantasy relevant is easily T.J. Hockenson. Despite one incredible game against the Seahawks where the Lions had basically no healthy wide receivers, Hockenson has been non-existent. In four of his five games this season, he has under 40 receiving yards. Coming off the bye, the Lions are now getting D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown back to full health. They still have a few injuries in their receivers room, but the more weapons the Lions get back, the less relevant Hockenson becomes. It doesn’t help that the Lions are touchdown underdogs on the road against the Cowboys, who are getting their starting quarterback back under center.

This Cowboys’ defense has been incredible against the pass, which will make life tough for Jared Goff. They rank third in Pass DVOA, as they have allowed only 183.5 passing yards per game. The Cowboys also lead the league with 24 sacks so the Lions will likely lean heavily on their run game with Swift back and Jamaal Williams having a great start to the year. Outside of his rookie season, Goff has a career-low 59.7% completion percentage and his interception rate is climbing to a potential career-high. With the lack of opportunity for Hockenson, fading him makes all of the sense in the world. The Lions will try to establish the run and if they get behind, Goff will likely hone in on St. Brown, who leads the Lions with a 20.9% target share.

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