It is crazy to think the NFL season is at the halfway point, already entering Week 9. More bye weeks will make this yet another limited player pool, but thankfully the Buffalo Bills stack is back on the table. This article features four boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 9, including Aaron Jones, and four bust/fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.
NFL DFS Picks Week 9: Best High-Upside Plays
NFL DFS Picks Week 9 Boom Picks
QB Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
DraftKings – $8,500; 13.3% Boom | FanDuel – $9,300; 16.5% Boom
In a pricing tier of his own, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel at the position. He is obviously the most expensive option on the slate, but Allen has by far the biggest upside. Through seven games this season, Allen is averaging over 30 DraftKings points and leads the league with 314 passing yards per game. Not only is Allen a major weapon in the passing game, but with his rushing ability Allen’s floor continues to be very high. No other quarterback comes close to the ceiling Allen can provide on this slate.
The New York Jets have been awesome defensively this season, leading them to a 5-3 record through eight games. They will be put to the test this week, as the Bills rank second in the league in Pass DVOA. The Bills are double-digit road favorites with the highest implied total on the slate at 28.75 points. Allen is the most popular quarterback on both sites in Stokastic’s last ownership run. Pay up for Allen and differentiate elsewhere. A few weeks ago, he was the quarterback of a tournament winning lineup. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was competing for that crown again this week.
RB Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers
DraftKings – $7,400; 17.3% Boom | FanDuel – $7,800; 19.2% Boom
It has been an extremely disappointing season for the Green Bay Packers, as they have lost four straight games. One positive to this offense is Aaron Jones is the real deal. He is starting to get fed the ball a lot lately and is coming off his best game of the season against the Bills last week. Jones rushed for 143 yards on 20 carries, while hauling in four receptions. As his snap count continues to rise, A.J. Dillon‘s continues to fall. Jones has also been heavily involved in the passing game, ranking third on the team in target share and averaging 3.8 receptions per game.
This is a great bounce-back game for the Packers as they play the Detroit Lions on the road. The Packers are 3-point road favorites and have the second-highest implied total on the slate behind the Bills at 26.5 points. Losers of five straight games, the Lions have allowed an incredible 32.1 points and 421.3 yards per game. Getting exposure to Jones feels like a necessity given how poor the Lions have been defensively this season. They rank dead last in total defense DVOA coming into this week. Prioritize Jones on FanDuel where he has the highest boom percentage on the slate, but he is a great play on DraftKings as well.
WR Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills
DraftKings – $8,400; 20.7% Boom | FanDuel – $8,900; 15.5% Boom
In Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool, the Bills have the highest rating by far, as they come in with a 20.2% chance of being the top stack on this main slate. Josh Allen’s top pass catcher, Stefon Diggs, has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the fourth highest on FanDuel. Diggs leads the Bills with a 26.9% target share, which ranks ninth in the entire league. He is tied for a league-high seven touchdowns, and pairing Diggs with Allen this week is the highest ceiling stack on the slate.
Just like there was on Sunday night, there will be plenty of jawing between Diggs and Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. Through eight games, Gardner is tied for the league lead in pass deflections, but only has one interception. He has a very bright future, but I’ll gladly take Diggs in this matchup, as the Bills will find a way to scheme him open all over the field. With so much ownership flocking to the higher-priced running backs on DraftKings, Diggs may come in a bit lower owned than he should be. He has a positive leverage score on DraftKings while being in the optimal lineup 18.3% of the time.
TE Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings – $4,500; 16.8% Boom | FanDuel – $6,300; 10.4% Boom
Kyle Pitts finally scored a touchdown and posted a season-high 19 DraftKings points, catching five passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted nine times by quarterback Marcus Mariota, which is quite high. Even when the Falcons are losing, they love to run the ball as they have the second-highest run rate in the league at 57.6%. With Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and even Dallas Goedert all not on the main slate, Pitts feels like the last man standing and is at a very reasonable salary on DraftKings.
Pitts has the highest boom percentage at the tight end position on both sites but needs to be prioritized on DraftKings where he is just the fifth-most expensive option. Maybe, just maybe the Falcons realized how much of a mismatch Pitts has on the perimeter that more balls will be coming his way in the future. The Chargers are coming off a really bad home loss to the Seahawks where they allowed 37 points and over 400 total yards. Pitts is always going to carry some risk due to this Falcons offense, but he is worth another flier on this slate, especially on DraftKings at $4,500.
NFL DFS Picks Week 9 Busts/Fades
QB Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings – $6,200; 41.8% Bust | FanDuel – $7,900; 48.6% Bust
Coming in with the highest boom percentage at the quarterback position is Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins. He has yet to top 300 passing yards this season and hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns in any game. Not counting the London game, this will be just the third road game of the season for the Vikings. Where Cousins seems to struggle the most is playing on grass. That has been evident over the years and may seem a bit odd, but Cousins has thrown four interceptions in two games with a 76.2 quarterback rating. In five games on turf, Cousins has thrown only one interception and has a 101.7 quarterback rating.
The Vikings just traded for tight end T.J. Hockenson to add another weapon for Cousins to throw too. This offense is very talented led by one of the best wide receivers in the game Justin Jefferson, but Cousins playing on the road outdoors against his old team is not a situation to get behind. The Commanders have won three straight games while only allowing 14.7 points per game during that time. Cousins and the Vikings are 3-point road favorites, but this total has dropped all the way down to 43.5 points. Get exposure elsewhere than a rough Kirk Cousins spot this week.
RB Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings – $7,800; 61.4% Bust | FanDuel – $8,500; 50.1% Bust
It is safe to say this spot for the Vikings in general is not one to get behind, as Dalvin Cook has a very high bust percentage at the running back position this week. Jonathan Taylor has the highest bust percentage on DraftKings but has continued to miss practice, so Cook is the second-worst option. Their 6-1 record may be fool’s gold ,as Cook rushed for over 100 yards for the first time all season last game. Cook has scored in three straight weeks but continues to be a bit of an afterthought in the passing game, as he is averaging just 2.4 receptions per game.
The Commanders have been incredible stopping the run this season, as they rank second in rush defense DVOA. If this game stays close, or even if the Commanders get out to a lead, expect this pace to slow way down. In neutral situations this season, the Commanders have the third-slowest pace in the league, as they rank 28th in the first half. For Cook to exceed value, he is going to need a couple of touchdowns, because he will likely not have enough opportunities to get over 100 rushing yards. Crossing off a team is risky, but the Vikings have one of the worst stack ratings this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle – Miami Dolphins
DraftKings – $7,400; 51.7% Bust | FanDuel – $8,200; 44.8% Bust
Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle fits perfectly into this boom/bust article, as that is normally his performances from week to week. Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa broke the slate last week, and this trio stack went off for over 100 DraftKings points with each player scoring over 30. This game will likely be a little different playing on the road against the Chicago Bears. The Bears defense isn’t how it used to be, and they are trading pieces away left and right. However, playing outdoors against the Bears who lead the league in run rate with 59.9%, this game is going to be a slug fest.
With Tagovailoa under center, this Dolphins offense has been much better. However, early in the season Waddle still had a few games where he simply wasn’t involved in the offense. Hill is the main focal point in the passing game, as he leads the Dolphins with a 31.5% target share, which ranks second-best only behind Cooper Kupp. Waddle has a 21.6% target share, and he has only had double-digit targets twice through eight weeks. It is weird seeing Waddle with such a high bust percentage and Hill’s quite low, but Hill is the obvious stacking partner with Tagovailoa this week, as Waddle’s price has inflated too much.
TE Zach Ertz – Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings – $5,100; 48.4% Bust | FanDuel – $6,600; 46.8% Bust
Zach Ertz is the highest-priced tight end on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Ever since DeAndre Hopkins returned two weeks ago, Kyler Murray has had a one-track mind. Hopkins has 27 targets over the last two games, while Ertz has nine after having double-digit targets in four of his previous five games.
If Ertz didn’t get a lucky touchdown last week where the Vikings seemed to have quit on the play, he would have had back-to-back games with single-digit fantasy points. The Cardinals find themselves in a favorable spot this week at home against the Seahawks as 2-point favorites. This game is one of three with a 49.5 projected total. These two teams played three weeks ago with the Seahawks winning 19-9. Ertz had seven receptions for 70 yards, but of course this was the last game before Hopkins came back. It’s tough to get to Ertz in this spot with Hopkins demanding double-digit targets.
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