NFL DFS Showdown Picks: 2022 Pro Bowl AWESEMO Subscriber Special

NFL DFS Picks 2022 Pro Bowl

Last year the Pro Bowl was cancelled for health and safety reasons, so it has been two years since we last dabbled in NFL DFS contests for this exhibition game. Every year, the NFL tries out different rules in this game along with some standard ones that have been enacted to help curb injuries and keep things moving along in a fashion at least somewhat similarly related to actual games. Check out our NFL DFS projections before creating your 2022 Pro Bowl lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Defensive Rules:

• Only a base 4-3 formation is allowed, though in addition to man coverage, press and Cover 2 is allowable, though the deep players have to be on the hash marks.
• No nickel or dime packages are allowed, this means that one wide receiver will be covered by a safety and the tight end will see a safety or linebacker.
• No blitzing (i.e. linebackers, defensive backs or full defensive line rushes), though the DE/DT on either the left or right side of the center are allowed to run stunts, but not both at the same time (if I am correctly interpreting the rules) so there really is not much immediate pass pressure.
• No rushing the punter.

Offensive Rules:

• There must always be a tight end and a running back on the field at all times for the offense.
• The offense is not allowed to put players in motion or shift players on/off the line of scrimmage pre-snap set.
• The offense is limited to only two wide receivers on either side of the lineup (aka no “trips” or “bunch” formations).
• After an incomplete pass, the clock will restart upon the Referee’s signal unless it is in the final two minutes of the half or game.
• The 40-second clock has been shortened to 35-seconds.
• Intentional grounding is legal (of course they naturally want to protect the quarterbacks).

Special Teams Rules:

• There are no kickoffs, after touchdowns the defensive team will start the next possession on their own 25-yard line.
• Opening and Second Half “Kickoffs” will be employing a special “Spot and Choose” rule that was brought to the Competition Committee by the Baltimore Ravens. After the coin toss, the winner can elect to either “Spot” where the ball will be placed or “Choose” if they want to be on offense or defense after the “Spot” has been identified. This will also be used if there is an overtime period. Think of this as the one person cuts the big piece of cake into two pieces and then the other person gets to choose which piece they want.

Rosters

• Each team has 44 players with the offensive skill positions filled out with three quarterbacks, four running backs, one fullback, four wide receivers and two tight ends.
• Alternates were decided in advance, so nobody is going to be a surprise add, though some of the players who were on losing teams last week may not see the field as frequently as their more rested counterparts.

Miscellaneous

• Winners of this game will receive $74,000 and losers $37,000, most of the players in this game already have earned Pro Bowl bonuses in the $50,000 to $250,000 range and do not believe the announcers when they say “The players are really trying to win down the stretch for that bigger check.” The only thing the players are trying to do is not get hurt in this exhibition game.

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Overall Pro Bowl Scoring

The average final score over the last five seasons has been somewhat muted at 51.8 points per game and while this would be a robust total in a “typical” week for DFS play, it is not when we consider how things are spread out among the stars in this exhibition.

Passing Production

Each team has three quarterbacks with the starter usually getting a quarter to a quarter and a half and then the two reserves mopping up the remainder of the game. Typically one of the quarterbacks for each team will get about half of the work, but there is no real pattern for predicting that since it seems to be heavily reliant on sustained drives and turnovers. There will be at least one “trick” play with a running back, receiver or punter throwing the ball.

Receiving: Wide Receivers

Odd things can happen year over year, but in the last game the wide receivers rolled up a ton of production. However, special-teamer Andre Roberts caught both of his targets for 30 yards and a score. In 2019 it seems like the wideouts got the short shrift, but that was the year fullback Anthony Sherman had three receptions for 92 yards and defensive back Jalen Ramsey scored on a six yard catch. Sherman played in the league for 10 years and only twice did he have more receiving yards in a season than he did in the 2019 Pro Bowl.

Receiving: Tight Ends

Since there are only four tight ends in this game and one always has to be on the field, it makes sense to play at least two per roster.

Receiving: Running Backs (excluding fullbacks and special-teamers other than Darren Sproles)

In nearly every game it has been the fullbacks or special-teamers getting more work in the passing game than the running backs.

Rushing Production

This includes all carries by running backs, fullbacks, quarterbacks and receivers. The targets are only for the running backs, fullbacks and if a special teamer was a running back. That there are three rushing touchdowns in the last five years should not be a surprise, players typically do not want to run the ball in the red zone where more injuries can occur.

Best NFL DFS Strategy

Volatility runs high in this type of game because there are no certainties on playing time or even actual opportunities.

If you are utilizing FantasyCruncher or another optimizer, my recommendation is to focus on a group/rule which places at least two TEs on your roster. Just to reiterate, there are four of them and one always has to be on the field at any given time. Aside from the 2020 anomaly where the wideouts accounted for half a dozen touchdowns, tight ends have essentially kept pace in the scoring department with fewer players.

Running backs can actually be skipped or capped at one per roster. However, fullbacks and offensive special-teamers tend to get more than an average share of opportunities in this exhibition format. Even when there are “pass catching” running backs like Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, etc. they typically do not get more than one or two targets on average.

Devin Duvernay is the AFC return specialist, but he was a regular in Baltimore’s offense this season. Matthew Slater will be playing in his 10th Pro Bowl Sunday, but he has been a rare exception to the special-teamer theory with no offensive opportunities in his last three Pro Bowls and he has not caught a ball as a receiver for New England since the 2011 season. On the NFC side Jakeem Grant is the return specialist and he saw quite a bit of time at receiver this year for the Bears. It would not be a surprise to see him with a jet sweep or a reverse with his game-breaking speed.

Kickers are in play, but there have been just a dozen field goal attempts over the last five games combined. Defenses are also in play since they will technically be on the field the most of any “players” Sunday. There has been nearly five interceptions per game on average, though only one pick-six. When it comes to sacks, despite the no-blitzing rule, there has been just over five per game on average. This has to do with the offensive lines not having much time to have played together and the inherent likelihood of protection breaking down with so many pass attempts.

Synergy & How to Build Stacks

Even looking to teammates is not going to be any guarantee of production. While Lamar Jackson helped Mark Andrews lead the AFC in receiving production with a pair of touchdowns, that is unlikely to happen often. On the AFC Team this year Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are all representing Kansas City, however, they did just see their season end last Sunday and may not be “feeling it” one week later. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson are on the NFC Team, but like their KC counterparts, they likely will have just a handful of drives to make that magical connection.

Second-Half Contests

Remember that the starting quarterbacks rarely play in the second half and yet gamers still roster them in the partial game contests along with players who have been dinged up in the first half. Do not be that gamer.

NFL DFS Projections

Awesemo does have projections for this game, just go to the Showdown & Single-Game Projections page and choose the DraftKings or FanDuel Pro Bowl tab.

Check out the PrizePicks show already posted on the Awesemo YouTube covering the Pro Bowl picks. Sign up using the promo code AWESEMO for a first deposit match up to $100 and by using the promo code AWESEMO you will also get 30 FREE days of Awesemo All-Access Premium.

Weird Stuff Happens

Remember to have fun with this and think of it as an entertainment expense. We have seen defensive backs score receiving touchdowns, fullbacks with insane yardage totals and truly anyone is live for a touchdown.

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