Showdown Strategy: Monday Night Football NFL DFS | New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers travel to face the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 of Monday Night Football. The game total is falling and currently sits at 50 points. The Saints are 7-point favorites. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.

NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night Football | Chargers vs. Saints

Showdown Captain

Alvin Kamara

The last time Kamara was on a Primetime Showdown slate, he went for nearly 200 yards and scored two times on 13 catches. Michael Thomas is still out so that puts Kamara in line to be the No. 1 receiver in New Orleans again. His $18,00 price tag is high but manageable with the right value plays. Our Top Showdown Plays tool has him as a 44.7% chance of being the highest-scoring player of the slate. It’s likely better to be over the field on him at Captain than to get cute and fade him.

Keenan Allen

Allen is one of the better Captain plays as well, but his projection will be influenced by the potential presence of Mike Williams, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Our projections have Williams as playing and still have Allen as the best value over $6,000. Allen has seen a mind-boggling 40 targets in three games with Herbert under center. He is West Coast Michael Thomas but is priced like Jarvis Landry.

Update: Williams is active. He’s a contrarian move at captain and has big-play upside but does carry a load of risk.

Joshua Kelley

The Chargers have consistently found ways to get Kelley the ball despite having Austin Ekeler, one of the most elusive backs in the league, on their roster. He’s averaging 13 carries and 1.8 catches per game through four weeks. Ekeler is on injured reserve with a knee injury which leaves Kelley as the No. 1 back. Justin Jackson figures to play a role, but it’s worth taking a few shots on Kelley at Captain for the upside that he takes more of Ekeler’s touches than is projected.


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NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations

Quarterbacks

Both quarterbacks grade as above-average plays at Flex but may be 0ver-owned at Captain. Drew Brees offers nothing as a rusher and has keyed in on Kamara since Thomas went down. That makes it difficult for him to have a good game without propelling Kamara to the optimal Captain spot. The Saints have a 28.5-point total and play at home. Brees should be a staple of rosters but primarily in the Flex.

Justin Herbert does offer a modest amount of rushing value. He has 12 carries on the year for 47 yards and a score through three starts. That boosts his value in the Captain spot, but he needs to score on the ground and/or spread the ball around to prevent Allen from making the optimal Captain spot. That’s not impossible but it is a thin slice of the middle of a Venn diagram.

Backup Runners

Latavius Murray has gotten extensive work as a runner throughout the year. Murray has hit a dozen carries in three of four games this year. He’s also adding one catch per game. Most importantly, Murray also has 10 carries in the red zone to Kamara’s 14. His $4,800 tag is up from previous weeks, but one touchdown makes that look cheap.

Jackson will serve as the backup to Kelley, and he’s excelled in that role previously. Last year, he was Ekeler’s understudy for three games while Melvin Gordon held out. He averaged six carries for 47.3 and two catches for 4.3 yards. He posted the exact same carry and catch totals while backing up Kelley in Week 4. The upside of his role being unknown plus having a floor of 8-10 touches makes his $4,400 tag too cheap.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry is averaging 6.8 targets, 4.5 catches, and 61.3 receiving yards per game. He’s also second on the Chargers in red zone target share at 20%. With Ekeler out, he’s a solid stacking option with Herbert. Allen’s role as a black hole of targets rules Henry out as a Captain play. There have only been two instances of a tight end Captain being in the winning lineup since the start of 2019 (regular season Showdown only). Both were George Kittle.

Jared Cook is expected to play through a groin injury but could be limited. He saw six targets per game in two healthy outings at the start of the year. He’s cheaper and projected to be less popular than Henry but the volume supports both numbers.

Saints Receivers

With Thomas out, Tre’Quan Smith and Emmanuel Sanders are both good Flex. Smith leads the team in receiving snaps (101) in games without Thomas, but Sanders does have a slight edge in targets (17) and air yards (197). Sanders is both cheaper and set to be less popular. The choice here is easy.

Defense and Kicker

Per usual, we lean toward the home-favored kicker in Wil Lutz when looking for a leg. Lutz is only $200 more than Michael Badgley and his team has a seven-point implied team total edge.

The 50-point total hurts defenses and kickers because neither has easy access to touchdowns. However, defenses have been more greatly impacted in high-scoring games. For games that finish with 50 or more points, a defense has been used in the winning lineup just 14.3% of the time.

Lower-Owned NFL Picks

One-Target Chargers

The Chargers have not found consistent production from anyone outside of their top option, but Jaylen Guyton sticks out as a value. He’s third on the team in receiving snaps (131) but only has seven targets on the year.

Saints Receivers

Taysom Hill could see an uptick in targets and snaps with No. 3 receiver Deontee Harris out. He has four red zone carries and one red zone target this year.

Marquez Callaway was the only receiver after Harris, Sanders and Smith to see a target in Week 4. He could see a larger role with Harris out, but that may still only be two targets. He’s worth a small allocation in 150 lineups.


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Author
If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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