NFL DFS Slant And Go: Taking Advantage of NFL Week 1

The NFL season is here, and there is NFL DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Slant and Go article.


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Seek Out Overlay

A lot of people will give out NFL DFS info this week in terms of picks, values etc. All of that is important, but the actual best value in the first week of the NFL season comes from overlay. This isn’t an accident. Every year, we see forms of overlay across the industry, and it’s a marketing cost of DFS sites. They are willing to payout overlay to attract new customers. We also see sites post contests without any rake. If you are a new or casual DFS player, don’t worry about making $1 million in the first week of the season. Realistically, this is probably not happening. The good news is that are ways to profit in DFS without winning every dollar that shows in “potential winnings” section of upcoming contests. Especially if you play DFS on a limited budget, look for contests that are overlaying on Sunday morning and make that where you invest your money. It makes the most sense to invest in contests with overlay than tournaments with standard rake.

The NFL DFS Impact of No Preseason

I keep a little bit of sanity. There aren’t many DFS formats more frustrating and time consuming than trying to translate coach speak to figure out how many snaps everybody will play during preseason. Then there’s the thrill of whether players actually make use of their eight touches or two quarters of play. The lack of preseason also adds an element to Week 1 we haven’t seen before.

Typically, we have a ton of value in the first week of the NFL season. The reason is pretty simple. Pricing for the first week of the season comes out way in advance so sites can post their contests and it’s good for marketing and running ticket qualifiers in sports like baseball and basketball. With pricing out so early, we typically see at least a few key players get injured in preseason, leading to a handful of obvious value options to open the season. Without preseason, mostly everybody is healthy. This makes the pricing pretty fair across the board. As a result, I am planning to go heavy with stacks and correlations to create upside when it isn’t available strictly from underpriced players.


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The Fan Situation – How it Affects NFL DFS

Due to the ongoing pandemic, most teams open the season without fans. Going forward, it’s less clear what protocols will look like. These are the teams allowing some fans at the start of the season.

  • Browns allowing 10% capacity
  • Colts allowing 3.7% capacity
  • Jaguars allowing 25% capacity
  • Chiefs allowing 22% capacity
  • Dolphins allowing 20% capacity

As of now, no other teams are allowing fans. This matters more so for betting than DFS, but we still need to consider game scripts. If what is happening in the MLB is any indication, home field doesn’t hold much meaning without fans involved. Referees are humans and there is research that indicates that their judgement is swayed by the fans in attendance. Refs are more apt to make calls in favor of the home team, which is no longer a factor for most teams. This should produce more parity, and I am a bit more inclined to bet on the underdogs playing on the road in games with large spreads in the early going this season.

Todd Gurley Elite Again?

Before wrapping up my first article of the football season, I might as well throw in one NFL DFS play that I will likely play a lot of this weekend. Todd Gurley is no longer the guy that was the top overall pick in fantasy drafts, but it’s not like we are that far removed from those days. The Falcons should have a great offense this season, and I think Gurley has potential to return as a high-end fantasy option again. Even if he isn’t as good as he was a couple years ago, I get the sense that he’s going to play a hefty role in the Falcons’ offense. I am expecting a workload somewhere between 2018 and 2019. If this is the case, he comes into the season a bit underpriced, and his initial ownership projection doesn’t have him as too popular of a play.


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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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