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NFL DFS Stacks: Chiefs Worth High Spend in Week 13’s Marquee Matchup

Geoff Ulrich

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Trevor Lawrence-Patrick Mahomes DFS rankings and analysis ahead of the Jaguars vs. Chiefs matchup to kick off the Divisional Round Saturday

Week 13 looks set to potentially give us some fireworks for NFL DFS. We have three games on the main Sunday slate that has game totals of 50.0 points or better and several elite quarterbacks and position players to choose from. The largest game total sits with the Bengals and Chiefs who have the over/under on their game rise to 53.0 points as of writing. The biggest spread sits out in Baltimore where the Ravens are now +9.5 favorites against the failing Broncos. Injury-wise, it does look like Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers will be starting this week in the Chicago – Green Bay game. However, one of the most pivotal players on the slate in Josh Jacobs (calf) looks to be questionable for this week and even potentially a true game time decision. The Stokastic Top Stacking Tool has things very bunched up at the top this week with three or four teams all vying for top spot as the stack with the best probability of ending the week with the most combined points.

This article will use the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. Here are some of the top opportunities for Week 11 below based on where they stand in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections.

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Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 13 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Top NFL DFS Stack: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will be on the road against the Bengals this week but look for Patrick Mahomes to be ultra-dialed in as he tries to avenge a playoff loss from last season. The Chiefs signal-caller called his game against Cincinnati last year one of the worst of his career and will almost certainly have to be at the top of his game to grab the win this week, just given how well the Bengals themselves are playing.

From a DFS perspective, both sides of the ball this week are attractive for stacking (especially with Ja’Marr Chase back for the Bengals) but Mahomes is projecting with both lower ownership than Joe Burrow and a better probability of leading the top stack this week. Kansas City has the highest probability rating in the Stokastic Top Stack Tool and even though it’s a lower rating than we have often seen from the top teams in this metric this season, the fact Mahomes is projecting with such low ownership (under 5%) means the Chiefs also stand out as a good game theory play in bigger fields.

Stacking-wise, Mahomes’ ownership will also get us to a more unique lineup build for Travis Kelce, who is projecting as the top owned TE on the slate. Kelce is deserving of being the chalk this week and went off for 10-receptions, 95-yards and a TD last year in the playoffs against the Bengals. With Kadarius Toney out again for the Chiefs adding in a cheap WR like Justin Watson to Chief stacks also has lots of appeal. Watson should be in line for another big snap count (he played on over 75% of the snaps last week) and Mahomes has a 115.2 passer rating this year when targeting Watson.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 12.2%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 5.4%


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Top Low-Owned NFL DFS Stacks: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles take on the Titans this week, in Philadelphia. While the Eagles are -4.5 favorites at home, and the game has just a 44.0 Over/Under, there’s every chance this match-up could delve into shootout territory given the star players involved. The Eagles rush defense has regressed big time over their last few outings and they’re coming off a game where they allowed over 5.0 yards per carry and over 13.0 yards per catch to the Green Bay RBs. That forced Jalen Hurts to go into hero mode last week to win the game for the Eagles, as he accumulated 157 yards on the ground alone and threw for two passing TDs.

Despite the massive game in Week 12 and the solid match-up (Tennessee allows the 7th-most fantasy points against to opposing quarterbacks) Hurts’ salary — and the plethora of big game totals on the slate — seems to be keeping people away from going back to him in DFS. That makes Hurts and AJ Brown (who is also projecting with sub-5% ownership on Stokastic) a terrific low-owned duo to chase in big GPPs where the leverage that ownership will provide would be huge if they combine for multiple TDs (something they already did in Week 8 of this year).

If you really want to stack this game, and go for the triple lower-owned stud play, the Titans Derrick Henry is also only projecting with 11.6% ownership and makes for the perfect pivot off the highly rostered Josh Jacobs this week (who as we mentioned up above, does carry some injury concerns).

Stokastic Top NFL DFS Stacks Projection: 7.2%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 4.8%

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Tournament Leverage NFL DFS Stack: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 285 yards or more now in each of his last three games and just been a general beacon of fantasy consistency since coming back from a concussion in Week 7. Despite the recent run though, NFL DFS aficionados seem to want nothing to do with Tagovailoa in Week 13 as his ownership this week has devolved into the 1% region, a place usually reserved for third-strong starters and Matt Ryan. Most of the negative sentiment around Tagovailoa likely stems from the fact that his salary across the industry is up, despite the fact he’ll be facing one of the league’s best defenses in the 49ers.

The 49ers are formidable, but they’ve also faced some of the weakest quarterbacks in the league lately (Andy Dalton, Colt McCoy) and it was only five weeks ago that another elite AFC team in the Chiefs stormed into San Francisco and lit up the 49ers for 423-passing yards and 3 passing TDs. Tagovailoa won’t be the only Miami skill player with low ownership this week either. Of the big names on the outside, Jaylen Waddle is projecting as the lowest owned WR from either team in this game at 3.4% and comes in averaging a legitimately insane 17.2 yards per catch. The fact he’s gone a couple of weeks without finding the endzone seems to have made people forget the kind of upside he possesses, and he’ll come $1,400 cheaper than teammate Tyreek Hill in this game on DraftKings.

The Dolphins obviously carry a ton of risk given what the 49ers pass rush is capable of achieving, but you can’t argue with their true fantasy upside, or the opportunity that exists with such low ownership on their top skill players. With the Dolphins still projecting as a top eight stack in the Stokastic Top Stacking Tool, pairing Tagovailoa with one of or both of his elite WRs this week is a strategy that has massive appeal this week in GPPs. The leverage gained alone makes the Dolphins a stack worth mixing into builds this week.

Stokastic Top NFL DFS Stacks Projection: 6.8%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 1.1%

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