NFL DFS Stacks Divisional Playoff Round: An Embarrassment of Riches in Philadelphia

The Divisional Round offers plenty of elite teams to choose from, and Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Stacks Tool on Stokastic has three teams with over a 20% chance of landing as the week’s top quarterback-receiver combo. That leaves numerous options to build around.

The largest team total is Kansas City, who is a 9-point favorite and has a 30.75 implied team total. Both the Bills and Eagles have implied team totals over 27.5 this week, however, and there are some very explosive offenses lurking with underdogs in the Cowboys, Bengals and Jaguars.

This article will again rely on Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Stacks Tool to identify the strongest spots. Using the tool, let’s go over the top teams in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections and the lower-owned teams that may make for sharp contrarian pivots in larger-field DFS tournaments.

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Top NFL DFS Stacks for Divisional Round

Top NFL DFS Stack: Philadelphia Eagles

All of the top three stacks this week in the Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Stacks Tool will have legitimate ownership attached to them. That said, while both the Jaguars and Bengals are good contrarian options, the Eagles stand out as the best favorite to stack. New York has a porous run defense that allowed Jalen Hurts to run for 77 yards and a touchdown back in Week 14, and a Giants upset win or any kind of close game would likely come as a result of the Eagles offense busting, as opposed to an offensive explosion from Daniel Jones.

The more likely scenario is that the Eagles offense rolls. Hurts has the best rushing upside on this slate, and he destroyed the Giants with his legs once this season already. From a stacking perspective, both Eagles wide receivers were effective against New York in Week 14, but it’s worth noting that DeVonta Smith was far more efficient than A.J. Brown against the Giants this year, converting 12 of 16 targets into catches.

Stacking Smith with Hurts — while potentially avoiding what will likely be a very popular Brown — would bring ownership of the stack down and provide a nice way to capitalize on an Eagles victory.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 21.5%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 20.0%

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Low-Owned NFL DFS Stack: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bills have a far better top stack probability this week than the Bengals, but they’re also a tougher team to stack. Buffalo has used its tight ends and running backs more in the red zone in the second half of the year, which has capped the upside of their top wide receivers at times. That makes its players better one-off plays and the Bengals a better stacking target considering the ownership gap.

Joe Burrow should drop back 35-plus times this week since the Bengals have averaged 3 yards per carry and have serious issues with their offensive line. Teams against Buffalo have averaged 36 pass attempts this season, and Burrow has a legit stud receiver in Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has averaged 12.8 targets a game over the last five weeks, a mark that would have led the league if extrapolated over the entire season.

Chase’s high ownership will also be helped by pairing him with his quarterback, who is projecting for nearly half the ownership of Josh Allen on the other side of this game. A lower-owned Bengal like Hayden Hurst or Tyler Boyd can also round out things and bring the overall ownership of lineups down. Cincinnati is the underdog, but its passing game has legit ceiling potential and makes for great pivots off the top-owned stacks.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 11.1%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 12.3%

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Tournament Leverage NFL DFS Stack: Jacksonville Jaguars

The lack of Jaguars love this week will undoubtedly lead to some lower ownership on their key players. Trevor Lawrence is coming in with just 7.3% projected ownership, which is less than half of what the quarterback on the other side of this game will likely carry. Lawrence may seem like an unnecessary risk, but he’s shown legit upside in the second half of the season, going for 26 or more DraftKings points in three of his last eight games. Lawrence is also a legit rushing touchdown candidate and was seventh in red zone rushes among all quarterbacks this year.

With teams playing the Chiefs averaging 38 passes per game over their last three starts, Lawrence seems likely to be in a heavy-dropback spot. Pairing him with a great value at tight end in Evan Engram can provide access to a very low-owned quarterback-receiver duo that has shown the ability to break slates in the past. Engram has averaged 71.85 yards, 5.42 receptions and 0.42 touchdowns per game over his last seven starts and is up against a Chiefs defense that allowed the ninth-most touchdowns to the tight end position — and four touchdowns to tight ends over its final four games.

One way to get very contrarian with a Chiefs-Jaguars stack is employing two tight ends. Engram is only $4,300 on DraftKings, which makes him very viable as a flex play. Considering the Jaguars’ own weakness against the tight end position, using both Travis Kelce and Engram would provide a very unique build and a solid way to attack larger-field GPPs.

With Mahomes and the Chiefs carrying solid ownership projections, thinking about contrarian ways to attack this game is a must. Starting with Engram and Lawrence is a good leverage stack and leaves plenty of room to come back with a Chiefs player or two.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 7.3%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 7.7%

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Geoff Ulrich

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