NFL DFS Stacks: Miami Dolphins Look Promising for Week 12

There’s a ton of injury news and lineup movement across the board on Week 12 that will impact NFL DFS stacks. The Rams, Texans, Panthers and potentially the Bears will all have different starting QBs. Additionally, we have main carry RBs in Joe Mixon (out) and Leonard Fournette (doubtful) who are likely to miss this week and will open big value at their respective positions. With so many backup QBs in play the highest game total on the slate sits at just 48.5 and the biggest spread is down in Kansas City where the Chiefs are now -15.5 favorites over the Rams who are expected to start third-stronger Bryce Perkins at QB. The Stokastic Top Stacking Tool is leaning heavily towards three teams at the top and we’ll touch on those three targets and more below.

This article will use the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. Here are some of the top opportunities for Week 11 below based on where they stand in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections.

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Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 12 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Top NFL DFS Stack: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins enter this week as massive -14.0 point favorites with a 30.5 implied team total that puts them atop the main slate. The Dolphins will likely be without one of their starting RBs in this game as well as Raheem Mostert is trending as doubtful for this game. It should just mean a few extra attempts for Tua Tagovailoa who is trending as the only QB in the Stokastic NFL DFS projections for Week 12 with a passing projection over 300 yards.

Tagovailoa has been proven that he’s not just a one-off spike week candidate at this point either. He’s averaged 27.55 DraftKings fantasy points over his last three starts and is now at 283.5 yards per game in terms of his overall average, per game, in 2022. Despite the great stats and consistent fantasy performances he’s still trending with less than 10% ownership this week on a slate where there’s only a couple of top QBs to choose from.

Stacking Tagovailoa requires little thought either. Both his starting WRs rank in the top 10 in the Stokastic projections for yards this week and Jaylen Waddle continues to be somewhat overlooked as a DFS play, coming in with just a 10.6% ownership projection on Stokastic (as of writing). The worry in this game for DFS purposes seems to be the chance of a Miami blowout but lots of points for Miami this year has almost always meant great fantasy games for Tagovailoa who has topped 23.0 DraftKings points every time the Dolphins have scored 30.0 or more points in 2022. The Dolphins should be the most popular play on the slate and with only lukewarm ownership projections you should be comfortable building around them in Week 12.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 23.7%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 8.3%


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Top Low-Owned NFL DFS Stacks: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens come into this game with the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate. The Stokastic Projections have them with just a 5.0% chance of ending the day as the top stack but the fact that we can get Lamar Jackson (who has just a 5.9% ownership projection) at potentially 5.0% owned or less in big field GPPs still makes this a stack worth looking at.

The Ravens offense won’t be gaining many eyeballs from the public after putting up just 13.0 points last week against Carolina, but they are taking on a Jaguars defense that has been extremely easy to pass on. Jacksonville has allowed 8.0 yards per pass attempt over their last three games (fifth-worst in the league) and make for a great rebound spot for Mark Andrews, who is another week removed from a mid-season injury that cost him some games and efficiency.

Andrews’ Stokastic projections this week have him within the top 10 of all WRs and TEs in terms of overall yardage and while he is projected to be one of the top owned TEs on the slate, the fact we have a couple of cheap TEs trending this week, and Travis Kelce on the main slate to soak up ownership, means our Jackson/Andrews stacks won’t be heavily owned in any contests. Coming back on the other side with Travis Etienne, who is projecting with lower ownership as well — but has the fourth-highest rushing yardage projection on Stokastic — makes this a very interesting contrarian game/spot to target in Week 12.

Stokastic Top NFL DFS Stacks Projection: 5.0%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 5.9%

Tournament Leverage NFL DFS Stack: Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers and Cardinals have the highest Over/Under on the board this week at 48.5, with Los Angeles sporting a solid 26.0 implied total — which is fifth highest on the slate. Normally this might be the most popular game for DFS purposes (with the highest ownership percentages across both sides) but that’s not really trending as the case in Week 12.

The Chargers Justin Herbert will certainly warrant some attention from the field, but his recent slide in fantasy production (he hasn’t topped 24.0 DraftKings points since Week 4) — and the fact he’s more expensive than both Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray this week — should keep him well under 10% owned in most contests. Herbert’s upside for NFL DFS is still massive though and he’s looked much healthier in past weeks, throwing for 280-yards and two TDs on just 30-attempts against Kansas City.

He’ll also have Keenan Allen playing a full complement of snaps this week. Allen played on 63% of the snaps in Week 11 and complied five catches for 94-yards. He gets a much better match-up this week against a Cardinals team who has allowed three TDs to opposing WRs over their last two games. Arizona also offers an easy comeback target in James Conner, who has played on over 75% of the snaps the last two weeks and faces off against a weak rush defense in Los Angeles, who is last yards per carry against.

The Chargers are projecting as the third highest stack in terms of top stack probability on Stokastic, but with Herbert available at under 10% and the Cardinals players not likely drawing a ton of ownership either, this game sets up as a solid one to target for Week 12.

Stokastic Top NFL DFS Stacks Projection: 10.9%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 8.0%

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