Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups for Super Bowl 56. This column will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let us dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Rams vs. Bills Super Bowl matchup.
2022 Super Bowl 56 DFS Picks: Bengals vs. Rams
For the second season in a row, a team has a chance to hoist the Lombardi trophy in front of their home crowd. Despite technically being the away team, the Los Angeles Rams will face off against the Cincinnati Bengals within the confines of their own stadium, in what should be a stellar game between two offenses playing at an elite level. Nobody expected Cincinnati to get this far, this fast. Their quarterback and top two wideouts have a combined five seasons of experience between the three, and yet they have been playing as well as any trio in the league over the last month. Their defense, considered to be the worst among all playoff-qualifying teams, have held the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs off just enough to let their superb offense take the game over. And that will be the game plan once again against Los Angeles, who are among the most aggressive offensive teams in the league but have struggled with turnovers at times over the second half of the season. Still, an offensive-oriented game is much more likely than a defensive struggle, as both squads will rely on their otherworldly passing attacks when push comes to shove.
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The Bengals have certainly improved defensively over the course of the season. The Bengals secondary ranked dead last among all playoff teams in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, but much of the major damage was done in the first half of the season. Cincinnati ultimately ended just outside the top 12 in points allowed per game this season, and over their last three games their 19 average points allowed would put them squarely in the top 10 of all defenses. This Sunday, however, they will be facing Cooper Kupp ($11,600 DraftKings/$16,000 FanDuel), who will look to top off one of the most impressive seasons by an NFL player in history. Kupp has continued his unbelievable play through the playoffs, averaging 15.4 yards per reception, 2 yards more than his season average, on nearly 11 targets per game. He is averaging nearly 130 yards receiving per game since Jan. 1. His four touchdowns during the postseason are the most by any player this year.
The Bengals, as many other teams before them have tried, will do everything in their power to stop the otherworldly connection between Kupp and Matthew Stafford ($10,800 DraftKings/$15,500 FanDuel), who has played quite efficiently these playoffs, but most likely, these two will find each other plenty. The Awesemo projections currently suggest Kupp goes over his lofty 106.5 yards receiving prop line nearly 55% of the time. The Rams have also gotten solid contributions from Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,400 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) this postseason, as he is averaging 12.4 yards per reception on 19 catches this postseason. Beckham came up huge in the NFC Championship Game victory over San Francisco, catching nine of 11 targets for 113 yards. Beckham has now earned seven or more targets in three of his last five starts and could see heavy usage once again, especially if the Bengals sell out to take away Kupp.
The backfield for Los Angeles is a bit more muddied than fantasy gamers would like, as Cam Akers ($6,400 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) missed practice all of last week with a shoulder injury that kept him out of a portion of the NFC Championship. Akers has been significantly involved when on the field these playoffs, earning 17 or more carries in both the Wild Card and Divisional rounds, but Akers has been quite mediocre as a rusher, posting just 2.8 yards per carry and no runs longer than 15 yards. He has been excellent as a receiver, however, averaging 12.4 yards per reception on five catches of his last three games. Still, despite continued expectations that Akers will suit up, expect Los Angeles to use Sony Michel ($5,000 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) plenty in this matchup. Michel has not been any more efficient as a rusher this postseason, averaging 3.3 yards per carry on 24 opportunities in his last three games. Unlike Akers, however, Michel offers very little upside in the receiving game, which explains why Awesemo’s latest simulations suggest Michel has less than a 1% chance of being in the optimal DraftKings lineup. Akers, despite the injury concerns, sits at over 45%.
The Bengals will almost certainly need a monster performance from quarterback Joe Burrow ($10,600 DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel) if they want to be crowned NFL champions. Burrow has been cool and confident throughout the playoffs and has been lauded for his strong play in crucial moments, but he is playing relatively inefficient football this postseason. Burrow is averaging just 7.7 yards per attempt, down from his regular-season average, and his QBR sits at a paltry 46.6, mostly due to the 12 sacks he has taken. But the advanced metrics tell yet another story. Burrow’s EPA per play on non-sack passes ranks among the very best in the NFL. He has an elite completion percentage from a clean pocket. Essentially, if the Bengals are able to give Burrow time to operate, he will make big plays to one of his two star receivers, Ja’Marr Chase ($10,400 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel) or Tee Higgins ($7,600 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel), who combined for 163.5 yards per game this season. Along with Tyler Boyd ($5,400 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel), the receiving trio averaged nearly 210 yards per contest when healthy, and all three averaged 9 or more yards per target. Chase is in the midst of one of the finest rookie seasons in NFL history, accumulating 1476 yards from scrimmage during the season and averaging 14 yards per reception during the Bengals’ playoff run. Both Chase and Higgins appear in nearly half of Awesemo’s optimal DraftKings lineups in Awesemo’s latest run of simulations.
The Rams defense ranked No. 1 in the NFL in PFF’s team defensive grades, and despite their reputation as an elite pass-stopping corps, the Rams actually finished higher in yards per carry allowed (fourth) during the regular season than yards per pass attempt (ninth). That means the matchup for Joe Mixon ($9,600 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel) looks less than ideal despite him likely getting 20-plus opportunities as the only guaranteed workhorse back in this game. Mixon has averaged 17.5 carries per game during the postseason, but his per-rush average has been just 3.7 yards, well below his regular-season rate. Mixon’s 88 yards on the ground in the AFC Championship represented his first total over 80 yards since Nov. 28. A competent receiver, Mixon has continually made contributions through the air, earning five targets a game this postseason, but he has been spelled on passing downs by Samaje Perine ($2,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) at times. That lowers his ceiling probability once again. Mixon shows up in the optimal lineup just 35% of the time on DraftKings. On FanDuel that number is even lower.
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The Rams have centered their postseason offense around their superstars, which has left little opportunity for their passing attack’s auxiliary weaponry. Van Jefferson ($5,200 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel), bogged down by injuries, has only earned nine targets in his last three games but has still managed to average nearly 16 yards per reception, just as he did during the regular season. Jefferson’s five targets in the NFC Championship were the most looks he had seen since Jan. 2, and it marked just the third time in eight weeks that he had been targeted more than three times. Still, Stafford has shown a willingness to throw deep to Jefferson, and with a discounted salary compared to Los Angeles’ big two, Jefferson appears in nearly a quarter of Awesemo’s optimal lineups. Tyler Higbee ($4,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) was injured early in NFC Championship game, but it looks like he has an outside chance to play. If he does, he will be a decent value play, particularly on DraftKings. But he will almost certainly cede snaps to Kendall Blanton ($4,600 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel), who is used sparingly but has had goal-line plays drawn up for him. Blanton becomes a significantly more interesting play if Higbee is ultimately ruled out. Ben Skowronek ($600 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has only earned one target this postseason but is the only sub-$1,000 salary player on Los Angeles worth considering in large-field tournaments.
Cincinnati is also dealing with an injury at the tight end position. Starter C.J. Uzomah’s ($4,400 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) injury in the game against Kansas City looked quite serious, and he did not return to the lineup, but the Bengals are saying he is questionable. That would all but eliminate Drew Sample ($4,200 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) from consideration, as the Bengals have not replicated their usage of Sample in the passing game when he replaces Uzomah. Trent Taylor ($1,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) also saw an increased snap share with Uzomah sidelined, but he has not earned a target this postseason and saw only three total looks this entire season. If looking for low-salary options on the Cincinnati side of the ball, Samaje Perine is likely the best bet.
The Bottom Line
While there is always a chance both teams come out with the Super Bowl jitters and underperform expectations, this game has a ton of shootout indicators. From the volatile play of the secondaries to the otherworldly upside of both offensive corps, this game has a much better chance of soaring over its modest 48.5-point Vegas total than staying under. While kicker Evan McPherson ($4,000 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) has been spectacular for the Bengals all season long, he only appears in the optimal lineup 23% of the time and pops as the optimal Captain in fewer sims than the Rams defense ($3,400 DraftKings). Los Angeles certainly has the stronger defense on paper, especially when looking at a full-season sample, but that advantage dwindles when looking at each teams last six weeks of play. Ultimately, this game will come down to offense. With gobs of firepower in both passing attacks, this game will be decided by the side that makes the most splash plays. While the Bengals have done just enough to get to this point, the Rams led the league in explosive play rate through the air.
Super Bowl 56 Prediction: Rams 31, Bengals 23
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