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Week 11 NFL DFS Value Picks: Daniel Jones the Latest QB to Exploit Lions Defense




NFL DFS Value Picks Week 11: Daniel Jones Latest QB to Exploit Lions

Facing a brutal bye week with Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, and Tampa Bay all getting a week off, the player pool shrinks just a bit ahead of Week 11. With byes removing some valuable options and injury news impacting snap counts around the league, look to Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays are the best point-per-dollar Week 11 NFL DFS value picks while utilizing the NFL DFS ownership projections to understand the leverage of these plays. Let’s address some vulnerabilities from the previous weeks while digging into some upcoming trends for the last third of the season.

Week 11 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

Quarterback: Daniel Jones – $5,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel

Once again, the play here is to target whichever quarterback is facing the wretched Lions defense. This matchup has a game total of 46.0 points, the third highest on the slate, favoring the home Giants by 3 points. Jones as QB9 on DraftKings has incredible point-per-dollar value, while his FanDuel pricing (QB6) has him narrowly behind the top options at the position, making him a slightly less enticing play. He currently ranks as the second-highest value play on the slate on DraftKings, narrowly trailing Marcus Mariota, yet he is seeing less than 10% ownership.

Jones generates a solid floor given his 387 yards rushing on 69 attempts (both fourth among quarterbacks). He’s tacked on three touchdowns rushing and is a legitimate red zone vulture, with 14 carries inside the 20. While Detroit has improved their DVOA rankings over the past two weeks, they still rank 26th defensively in total DVOA and have surrendered more fantasy production to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the league. Having allowed 15 touchdowns passing and four rushing on the year to the position creates ample opportunity for Jones to repeat his QB3 outing from Week 7. He has incredible upside at a middling price on DraftKings, making Jones looks like one of the best plays at the position in both cash and GPP formats.

Quarterback: Marcus Mariota – $5,500 DraftKings, $7,200

Mariota is once again atop the rankings in terms of value. While this has not played to his favor through the season, this matchup has the highest total on the slate (50 points) and the Chicago Bears defense has quickly become one of the worst units in the NFL. Additionally, Mariota is coming off a 30-attempt performance while pushing over 300 air yards for the third consecutive week. Projecting as the top value on DraftKings and second highest on FanDuel hasn’t impacted his NFL DFS ownership projections, as he’s coming in under 5%.

While Mariota’s previous performances are potentially scaring many away, the Falcons rank as a top stacking option and will generate ample salary savings for those who attack this stack. The Bears defense ranks 30th in pass DVOA, surrendering 7.4 yards per pass attempt on the season (30th). This number has dropped to 9.3 over the past three games, which is the worst mark in the league by over a yard.

Mariota’s floor is generated through his rushing ability, where he ranks top 10 in carries (63), red zone carries (14), yards (347) and touchdowns (3) at the position. However, his passing productivity leaves some additional potential on the table. Surprisingly, Mariota ranks second among quarterbacks in air yards per attempt (10.7) due to 38 deep ball attempts, which rank sixth at the position. If he can pull his deep ball completion percentage (23.7%) up from the cellar (34th among quarterbacks), he could break the slate in this potential shootout.

Running Back: Rhamondre Stevenson – $6,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel

Stevenson has dominated the Patriots backfield since Week 5 and has turned the increased opportunity into impressive production. In four consecutive games, he has assembled fantasy outputs of 25.1 (RB2), 23.8 (RB5), 21.3 (RB10) and 16.0 (RB9). He’s on an absolute tear and has become the focal point of this New England attack, displayed by his 16.3 weighted opportunities per game. Those rank ninth out of all running backs.

Damien Harris is the main thorn in Stevenson’s workload, but he is listed as questionable to begin the week after missing last week’s game with an illness. While Stevenson’s pricing has climbed consistently since Week 3, he’s still projecting as the top value play at the position and is looking like an incredible leverage play early in the week.

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This matchup has the lowest total (38.5 points) on the slate, meaning the value plays are where the volume is. The Jets defense has been sturdy all season, but the loss of Sheldon Rankins (elbow) in the middle will certainly impact their run defense.

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Running Back: David Montgomery – $6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel

While Dameon Pierce and Cordarrelle Patterson project as better value plays than Montgomery, the matchup and workload are preferable for the Bears bell-cow back. The key to this play is the increased production of Chicago’s offense and the recent loss of Khalil Herbert to a hip injury. Herbert had quietly been displaying more game-breaking ability than Montgomery and was certainly eating into his usage. Now placed on IR, Herbert’s 37.4% snap rate should largely fall upon Montgomery, as Trestan Ebner will enter as a change of pace or pass-catching back when needed.

Montgomery’s production has been abysmal over the past three weeks, but he will look to benefit in this matchup against the Falcons defense, which ranks 25th in run DVOA while allowing 24.9 fantasy points to running backs on the season. Montgomery’s immense volume should allow for increased production regardless of how effective he runs given the slate’s highest game total (50 points) and Atlanta’s run-funneling defense. Montgomery offers a good run-back to a Falcons stack for a piece of the Bears offense if unable to afford Justin Fields’ increasing tag.

Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson – $4,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel

Over the past two games, Wilson has a snap share of 89.7% while running a route on 94.7% of dropbacks. He’s commanded 16 targets over this span, producing 207 yards receiving on 14 receptions. With outputs of 17.5 and 17.9, Wilson has been WR15 and WR11 the last two weeks. Some may be deterred by New England’s second-ranked pass DVOA or the fact this unit has only allowed 29.5 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. However, Wilson is just a game removed from exposing Jonathan Jones and the Patriots secondary for 115 yards on six receptions.

This matchup carries a very low game total (38.5 points), limiting the upside of plays on either side. That said, Wilson ranks as the top value play among receivers on DraftKings, so there is reason to target him and reap the benefit of some extra spending.

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