NFL DFS Value Picks Week 13: Trevor Lawrence Coming Off Best Game

Winter is here, and with six games remaining in the regular season, the playoff race tightens. This column will dive into Sunday’s 12-game main slate searching for the best value plays on the slate. There were a handful of injuries last weekend, which will impact the pool of players while opening some hidden value. Using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections, let’s analyze which plays generate the best point-per-dollar value while addressing the NFL DFS ownership projections.

Bet $5 on the Super Bowl and get $200 instantly!

Week 13 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence – $5,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel

After producing QB5 fantasy numbers last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Trevor Lawrence enters the Week 13 slate priced as QB10 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He got to this mark without any production on the ground, rather throwing 37 times for 321 yards and three touchdowns.

As usual, the matchup with the Lions is key here. Detroit has allowed nearly 4 more fantasy points per game to the quarterback position than any team in the NFL while surrendering a league-worst 500 yards rushing and six touchdowns on the ground to the position. Couple that with quarterbacks surpassing 300 yards passing in 4 of 11 games when facing the Detroit Lions, and it’s hard to fade Lawrence this week. He projects as the top overall value on DraftKings and falls 0.01 value points behind Justin Herbert on FanDuel.

With both Lawrence and opposing quarterback Jared Goff displaying value early in the week, expect a lot of ownership coming into this matchup. Detroit and Jacksonville rate as the Top NFL DFS Stacks of the week.

Quarterback: Kenny Pickett – $5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

With pricing coming in near the bottom of the slate, Kenny Pickett is seeing extremely low NFL DFS ownership projections early in the week despite projecting as a tremendous value play. The matchup with the Atlanta Falcons is by far the best he’s faced in his short career. Pittsburgh’s offense is nothing to write home about, averaging the second-fewest yards per play (4.8) in the league. However, this mark has improved over the last three games and Atlanta ranks 27th in opponent yards per play (5.8), leaving additional room for success by this metric.

Pickett has provided a solid floor given his 4.4 carries per game yielding 24.4 yards. The game total is middling (43.0) and favors Pittsburgh on the road by 1.0 point at open. The Steelers backfield is currently hobbled, with Najee Harris suffering an abdominal injury on Monday Night Football and developing rookie Jaylen Warren missing the last game due to an ailing hamstring. Expect Pickett to absorb some of the run game responsibility while putting an additional emphasis on the passing game. This is an area the Falcons have struggled to defend, allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt (27th) on the year.

Latest NFL DFS Content

Running Back: David Montgomery – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Currently projecting as the top value play at the position on both sites, David Montgomery is producing a solid workload since Khalil Herbert (hip) moved to IR. Over the past two weeks, Montgomery has had 31 carries totaling 146 yards while adding 30 routes, resulting in six receptions on eight targets. This sort of workload is not found around this price range, and the matchup against the Green Bay Packers has been advantageous for opposing running backs all season.

The Packers allow 127.1 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs (30th) and are surrendering the fourth-most yards per rush attempt (5.0) on the year. Justin Fields enters this week questionable, and his status will certainly influence the impact Montgomery is capable of making in this divisional matchup. Nonetheless, he projects as the top leverage play on the slate.

Running Back: Brian Robinson – $5,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

This play could go one of two ways. The current NFL DFS projections favor Brian Robinson’s running mate Antonio Gibson, who enters this matchup with a more secure floor given his involvement in the passing game. This divisional matchup with the New York Giants holds a game total of 40.5 points while favoring the road Commanders by 2.5 points. Washington seems intent on increasing Robinson’s workload as much as possible, and he is coming off the best game of his short career. Last week against the Atlanta Falcons, Robinson saw over 50% snap share for the second time in three weeks and delivered his first career 100-yard performance, also adding two receptions for 20 yards and a touchdown.

The pass game work is what led to this decision to fade the more popular Gibson play. Over the past four weeks, Robinson has had a route participation of over 30% three times, and he continues to eat into Gibson’s workload. One of these Commanders running backs is going to smash, and ownership is more likely to determine the decision.

Bet $5 on the Super Bowl and get $200 instantly!

Wide Receiver: Amon-Ra St. Brown – $7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel

While this tag is a tier above the rest, the value Amon-Ra St. Brown provides is right in line with the others. Projected as the top value play at his position by a long shot, St. Brown is a tremendous run-back option if stacking the Jaguars or a perfect running mate if selecting Goff at quarterback.

With both defenses struggling, this matchup opens with the second-highest game total (51.5) on the slate. Jacksonville struggles against the pass, allowing the sixth-most yards through the air (248.1) per game. Over the last three weeks, the Jaguars are surrendering 8.1 yards per pass attempt, the third-worst mark in the NFL. St. Brown has been on a tear lately and is clearly Goff’s preferred target, seeing a 34.4% target rate which is tops in the league. This feels like the perfect spot to keep his hot streak rolling.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!