Week 14 NFL DFS Value Picks: D’Andre Swift One of Several Lions Popping

With six teams on bye this week, the pool of players is reduced significantly and value could be harder to uncover. This column will dive into Sunday’s main slate searching for the best NFL DFS value picks available. Injuries continue to hamper the board of players while also opening some hidden gems. Using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections, let’s analyze which plays generate the best point-per-dollar value while addressing the NFL DFS ownership projections.

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Week 14 NFL DFS Value Picks

Quarterback: Jared Goff – $5,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel

Detroit will host the Minnesota Vikings in a matchup holding the highest game total (53.5) on the slate, favoring the Lions by 2.5 points at open. Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff have the highest value scores at their position, with the latter retaining the top spot by 0.11 value points. This game will draw heavy DFS interest, evident by Amon-Ra St. Brown (22.4%) and Justin Jefferson’s (17.4%) slate-leading ownership projections early in the week. Each team is dominating Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Stacks so electing Goff in this duel came down to two things:

  1. Minnesota’s pass defense is worse than Detroit’s, ranking 24th in pass DVOA while allowing the most yards passing (283.6) on the highest yards per attempt (7.6). That mark has risen in the last three games to 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
  2. Detroit is better offensively than Minnesota, boasting the ninth-ranked offensive DVOA to Minnesota’s 18th. Goff and the Lions average more yards per pass attempt (7.5 to 6.6), yards per play (5.8 to 5.2) and points per game (26.3 to 24.1).

There is an abundance of ways to stack this Detroit team, making them one of the best GPP plays of the week.

Quarterback: Tyler Huntley – $5,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

Tyler Huntley is value play potentially going under the radar this week. Filling in for Lamar Jackson is no easy task, but Huntley has performed admirably in his seven appearances over the past two years. Stokastic’s projection of 16.54 is under what Huntley was able to produce against a stout Denver defense when coming off the bench. This week, Baltimore will face a more favorable Titan secondary that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA and is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per game (22.8).

In four starts over his career, Huntley has completed 90 of 139 pass attempts for 772 yards and a completion percentage of 64.7%. His mobility secures a solid floor, with 38 carries across these four games for 239 yards and two touchdowns. With starts last year against the Steelers, Rams, Packers and Bears, this could be the most opportune matchup Huntley has faced in his career. At a projected 2.5% ownership, he looks like one of the best leverage spots at the position.

Running Back: D’Andre Swift – $5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel

An ankle and shoulder sprain have mitigated Swift’s workload thus far, allowing Jamaal Williams to not only establish a prominent role in this Detroit Lions backfield, but also lead the NFL in touchdowns rushing (14). However, since Swift returned to action in Week 8, the Lions have slowly ramped up his involvement until last week, where he finally led the backfield in snap share (51.4%), touches (20) and total yards (111) while notching his fourth touchdown in the last six games.

The two most encouraging stats over the last six games are the increase in route participation and red zone opportunities. All season, Williams has vultured opportunities at the goal line and in the red zone, but the Lions seem more willing to get Swift involved, with 10 red zone opportunities over the last three weeks. His work in the passing game also makes for the better stacking option when comparing the backfield, and due to the tag, Swift finds most of his value on DraftKings, where he projects as the RB4.

Wide Receiver: Laviska Shenault Jr. – $3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel

Finding plays near the salary minimum can be difficult without late injury news, but early this week Laviska Shenault Jr. projects as the top value play on DraftKings and WR10 on FanDuel. He is fighting for the top leverage spot with Derrick Henry while sporting an optimal score over 15, which shows the type of upside this play has.

Shenault is a boom-or-bust play that has found more consistency over the last two weeks, so look for his snap share to hover between 30% and 40% for the Panthers while operating out of the slot around 50% of that time. Despite popping in Stokastic’s projections, his ownership projects around just 3% early in the week on both sites. This matchup holds a middling game total (44), favoring the home Seattle Seahawks by 3.5 points. Seattle has been horrific defensively, opening upside for this uninspired Panthers. attack. And with Shenault’s ability to impact the running and passing game, he should find plenty of opportunity to return value at such a modest salary.

Tight End: Greg Dulcich – $3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel

Greg Dulcich is another player whose value appears stronger on DraftKings than on FanDuel. Denver getting devastated by injuries at wide receiver has thrust Dulcich into a prominent role in the passing game, and the latest coach talk is that he will see more snaps at wide receiver going forward.

This play won’t go under the radar, as early in the week Dulcich is projecting for top-five ownership at tight end. On the season, he has seen the 13th-highest target share (17.1%) and snap share (77.4%) at his position, while air yards (446), slot snaps (35.7%), route participation (81.6%) and an average depth of target (12.1) all rank in the top 10 amongst tight ends. Dulcich’s 11 deep targets are the second most for tight ends, and with 8.6 yards per target and 12.8 yards per reception, there’s a lot of meat on this bone.

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