With no byes remaining, all 32 teams are available in DFS this week. The NFL will break Week 15’s weekend festivities into a small three-game slate on Saturday and a 10-game slate on Sunday. This column will cover value options available by using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays generate the best point-per-dollar value while addressing the NFL DFS ownership projections to analyze which plays generate the best point-per-dollar value.
Week 15 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays
Quarterback: Mac Jones – $5,000 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Las Vegas will host New England and Mac Jones in an afternoon matchup with a middling game total (44.5) and the Patriots favored by 1. Jones hasn’t garnered a ton of DFS interest this season, but he does surprisingly have two top-10 fantasy performances in 10 appearances on the year. This matchup is optimal, as the Raiders have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game (21.4) to opposing quarterbacks and the Patriots lead running backs Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) and Damien Harris (thigh) are listed as questionable.
With pass attempt totals of 35, 36 and 39 over the last three games, New England is boasting the third-highest pass rate (70.5%) in the NFL over this span. Expecting a 300-yard performance out of Jones seems lofty, but his projection of 16.56 makes him an elite value play at the position and one that could go overlooked. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith make sneaky stack options that allow for expensive run-backs on Las Vegas, with Davante Adams ($9000) and Josh Jacobs ($8100) projecting as top performers. Keep an eye on the NFL DFS ownership projections at quarterback this week, as game-stacking this matchup on the Patriots side could be contrarian.
Quarterback: Mike White – $5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Mike White is currently day-to-day but tentatively on track to suit up on Sunday against his third NFC North defense in four weeks. He looked great against Chicago and Minnesota in Week 12 and 13, respectively, before taking a shot to the ribs that sent him to the hospital (as a precaution) against a ferocious Bills defense last week.
This week’s opponent in Detroit has been a DFS target for the quarterback position all season long, and regardless of White’s status, that will not change here. The Lions have allowed more fantasy points per game (25.4) to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the league and were just cooked by Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson last week. Truthfully, whoever starts at quarterback for the Jets will merit interest, and stacking White with Garret Wilson seems like the ideal play. The New York Jets rank in the top 10 on Stokastic’s NFL DFS Top Stacks Tool, and Detroit is allowing opposing WR1’s to average 6.85 receptions per game for 108.46 yards receiving. Eight pass catchers have surpassed 100 yards on the Lions, and seven were the top wide receiver for their team.
Update: Zach Wilson will be starting for the Jets in place of White on Sunday.
Running Back: Latavius Murray – $5,100 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Latavius Murray has regained DFS relevance, projecting as the top value flex-eligible player on DraftKings and top 10 on FanDuel. The Broncos continue to add running backs to the IR, with Mike Boone (ankle) being the latest casualty. This leaves nearly all the backfield work to Murray, while Marlon Mack is sure to pick up the remaining scraps.
The matchup with the disappointing Cardinals may not be the typical DFS target, with the lowest game total (36.5) on the slate, but the Cardinals have allowed 4.6 yards per carry (22nd) and Denver could be without Russell Wilson (concussion). Murray has seen a ramp up in passing game work over the last two weeks, with nine targets over that span. This increases his floor, and at an affordable tag, that is enough to solidify his value. Early in the week, Murray looks like one of the best leverage plays at the position.
Running Back: Zonovan Knight. – $5,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
A surprise contributor over the past three weeks, Zonovan Knight has seen nearly a 50% snap share. He had touch counts of 17, 20 and 19 over this span, which led to 103, 118 and 77 yards. Knight also converted his first NFL touchdown last week and has established himself as a threat in both the running and passing game. Knight currently has a perfect catch rate on his 10 targets this season.
The matchup with Detroit is favorable for all Jets, and Knight could end up vulturing a lot of the scoring opportunities given his nine touches in the red zone touches and two at the goal line. Detroit has allowed 13 touchdowns over 13 games to opposing running backs while surrendering 100-yard performances on two separate occasions. This is a value play that looks significantly better on DraftKings given the discrepancy in tags, and at 5% in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections early in the week, Knight is going under the radar. If this ownership remains, look for Knight to offer tremendous leverage at the position.
Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson – $6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Since Week 8, Wilson has seen over 80% snap share and returned four top-20 wide receiver performances in six total games, including WR5 and WR9 outings in back-to-back weeks. He has established himself as a deep threat (75.7 air yards per game, 20th), a red zone threat (16 red zone targets, 8th) and a threat after the catch (331 yards after catch, 13th). Best of all, regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Jets, they are targeting Wilson at a high clip (7.8 targets per game, 14th).
In a prime matchup against one of the worst secondaries in football, look for Wilson to potentially break the slate. Whether stacking with the Jets quarterback, Zonovan Knight or double stacking with tight end Tyler Conklin, Wilson should be one the first pieces into lineups this week in just about any fashion.
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