NFL DFS Value Picks Wild Card Saturday: Deebo Samuel Too Versatile

Wild Card Weekend is finally here. Saturday has a two-game slate featuring the Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco followed by Jacksonville hosting the Los Angeles Chargers. Sunday is a three-game slate, which will be covered in a later column. Finally, Monday Night features the Dallas Cowboys in Tampa Bay in a showdown with the Buccaneers. This column will cover the value plays available on Saturday’s slate by utilizing Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to address which players generate the best point-per-dollar value while analyzing the projected ownership to understand the leverage of these plays.

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Wild Card Saturday NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

QB Brock Purdy – $5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel

San Francisco holds the highest implied team total (26.0) of any team on Saturday’s slate. However, since Brock Purdy took over six weeks ago, the 49ers average 32.3 points offensively per game, thanks to his 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Purdy’s 68.3% completion further speaks to his efficiency distributing to the plethora of weapons at his disposal.

Seattle has the worst defense playing Saturday which further explains the value Purdy brings as an attachment to this dynamic unit. His leverage also tops the position on both platforms, and his floor is secure given the implied team total. Purdy is viable to run, as he has 17 carries and a touchdown rushing over his six starts. The play makes sense in both cash and GPP, with his ownership and projections telling the tale.

QB Trevor Lawrence – $5,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel

Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence will face off Saturday night in a showdown carrying a 47.5 total favoring the traveling Chargers by 2 points. The projections for the quarterbacks are split, favoring Herbert on FanDuel and Lawrence on DraftKings. The leverage between the two is neck and neck and could decide where ownership lands come lock.

Los Angeles has been a run-funneling defense over Brandon Staley’s tenure, but the pass defense hasn’t been much better, allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt, which ranks in the bottom third. The return of Joey Bosa should add stress to the Jacksonville offensive line, but the Jaguars boast the fourth-lowest sack rate (4.5%) in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Doug Pederson has worked his magic with this offensive group that averages 23.8 points per game (10th) while remaining balanced and efficient on third down. Lawrence has had the better season, rushing for 291 yards while adding five touchdowns on the ground. His passing numbers are slightly behind Herbert’s on the season, but he’s having the best season of his career and looks to be going slightly under-owned as the underdog in the second-highest total of the entire weekend.

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RB Travis Etienne – $6,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel

While Christian McCaffrey snags the top value spot at the running back position, Travis Etienne is seeing the most ownership across both major sites. On DraftKings, early projections have Austin Ekeler joining those two in the over-50% ownership club. Over on FanDuel, Etienne separates from that group slightly, where he’s also seeing positive leverage a couple days before lock.

Using the Stokastic Boom Bust Tool will be crucial for deciphering the running back position in GPP formats. This Chargers defense encourages opposing teams to run the ball with their two-high shell and 5.4 yards allowed per carry, which are most in the NFL. Since Week 7, Etienne has produced five 100-yard rushing performances and continues to be a threat in the passing game. Over this span, he has four outings of being RB8 or better and two in the top five. His upside is closer to the top-priced backs on the slate than most would like to admit, especially against this opposition.

RB Elijah Mitchell – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Both Jacksonville and San Francisco come with interesting second-string running back options in JaMycal Hasty and Elijah Mitchell, and roster construction can get rather unique in either case. Whether constructing a backfield stack or pivoting off the highly owned starter, the build is surely to be contrarian. Not to mention, there are plenty of scenarios where this is the optimal build, especially given the defensive struggles each opponent has experienced throughout the season.

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Seattle is allowing 4.9 yards per carry, the seventh worst in the league. While Mitchell doesn’t exhibit the passing upside of any of the aforementioned backs, he has been incredibly productive when on the field, leading the 49ers in yards per carry (6.2). In five carries last week, he managed 55 yards and two touchdowns while adding a reception for another 8 yards. Health has certainly always been a concern with Mitchell, but he could potentially be the healthiest option in the backfield, with McCaffrey dealing with ankle and knee ailments that have affected his practice status since late November. Given San Francisco’s implied team total, if fading Purdy, it makes sense to look at locking in both dominant runners of this elite offensive rush.

WR Deebo Samuel – $5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel

Another accessory to this stacked San Francisco attack is dual-threat unicorn Deebo Samuel. Following the same description as Mitchell in terms of efficiency and health, Samuel also has an elite yards per touch on 56 receptions and 42 carries on the season. His 5.1 yards after catch per target (8th) deserve a majority of the credit, although his 5.5 yards per carry are equally impressive.

Seattle ranks 16th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6) and has been especially stifling to receivers lined up on the outside. Samuel’s unique ability prevents a defense from keying in on him, as he moves all over the formation, is constantly in motion and is always a threat to receive a rush or a reception out of the backfield. The projections back him as one of the best value plays among all flex-eligible players.

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