NFL DFS Week 17 First Look: Fade Justin Fields at Your Own Risk

We’ve got a huge 13-game NFL DFS main slate on tap this Sunday.  This NFL DFS first look article provides an early look at the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates and evaluates some of the top options at each position and best all-around NFL DFS picks.

Get a $25 free bet plus a risk free bet up to $1,000 this week only!

NFL DFS First Look: Week 17 NFL DFS Picks

As always, be sure to watch all of the Stokastic NFL shows on the Stokastic YouTube Channel all the way up to lock to get the breaking news and best Week 17 NFL DFS picks.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields. CHI vs. DET ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

Facing off in the highest total on the slate (52 points), Fields and Jared Goff (below) are the best quarterback targets available this weekend. In addition to averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt on the year, Fields ranks second in carries per game (10.6) and second in redzone rushes among quarterbacks (28). Overall, he only trails Jalen Hurts in DraftKings points per dropback (0.72). Fields is going against a Lions defense that’s giving up the most yards per pass in the league (7.7) and this is the highest total the quarterback has ever competed in. Fields erupted for 43.4 DraftKings points when these two clubs met back in Week 10 and he brings arguably the highest ceiling at quarterback this weekend.

Jared Goff, DET vs. CHI ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

While Fields has more upside, Goff is the better value of the two quarterbacks and is a cash-game lock at these reasonable price tags. The ex-Ram ranks seventh in yards per attempt (7.6) and sixth in passing touchdowns this season (26). For this Sunday, Goff gets a stellar matchup vs. the Bears, who are the worst graded defense on PFF and are allowing the second most yards per pass (7.5). Furthermore, the Lions will be at home, which has meant the world to Goff this season, with him averaging a significant 9.8 more DraftKings PPG on his home turf than when on the road. Not only does this matchup boast the highest total on the slate (52 points), Detroit’s implied team total is the second largest on the board (28.5 points). For the three occasions Goff has played behind an implied team total of at least 25 points this season, the quarterback has been a stud, scoring 30.3 DraftKings PPG.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. IND ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)

Barkley is an outstanding high-end spend this weekend, especially at just $8,000 on DraftKings. This season, he ranks first in snap rate (78.9%), third in carries per game (18.9) and eighth in redzone rushes  among running backs (34). Additionally, Barkley has run a route on 65% of his team’s dropbacks and gained a target on 20% of his routes. Coming off the loss in Minnesota, this is a must-win for New York if they want to hang onto a Wild Card spot. The Giants are 3.5-point favorites and Barkley should see a minimum of 20 touches in this crucial tilt. For his career, Barkley is generating 24.8 DraftKings PPG when the Giants have been favorited, eclipsing 20 DraftKings points in nine of those 12 starts.

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS vs. CLE ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

As the season winds down and the Commanders look to hang onto a Wild Card spot, Robinson Jr. has handled a large role. Over the last four weeks, the rookie has averaged 18.3 carries per game – which is 67% of Washington’s running back carries – including five redzone rushes. With the Commanders as 2.5-point home favorites over the Browns this Sunday, Robinson should continue to see heavy volume and has the potential for over 100 yards and a touchdown against this soft Browns’ defense. This season, Cleveland is surrendering the fifth most yards per rush (4.9) and third most rushing touchdowns to running backs (13).

Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. ARI ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)

Since returning from their bye, the Falcons have made Allegier their clear No.1 back. The 22-year-old has handled 17.5 carries per game over the last two weeks – including seven redzone attempts -while logging 53.4% of the snaps. Allegier has also run a route on 42% of his team’s dropbacks and garnered a target on 20% of those routes. With the Falcons as 3.5-point home favorites over the Cardinals this Sunday – who are the ninth worst graded defense on PFF – Allgeier should see roughly 20 touches and is a terrific value at these mid-tier price points. For the four times the rookie has seen at least fifteen touches, Allgeier is providing 17.5 DraftKings PPG.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. CHI ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

As always when the Lions are at home, stacking Goff to St. Brown needs to be a priority for NFL DFS this week. The wideout is leading Detroit with a 28.7% target share this season and ranks sixth in the league in redzone targets (21). As noted above, the Bears are yielding the second most yards per pass (7.5) and on his home turf this season, St. Brown is contributing 24 DraftKings PPG (seven games), including three outings over 30 DraftKings points.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. SEA ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)

With Mike White (ribs) returning this week, Wilson a great option, especially at only $5,500 on DraftKings. In the three games White has started for the Jets this season, Wilson has led the team with a 23.6% target share, including six redzone targets and five targets over 20 yards. The rookie is amassing 22.5 DraftKings PPG with White under center this season and this is a plus spot, with the Seahawks as the ninth worst graded defense on PFF.

Zay Jones, JAX vs. HOU ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

Jones was held to only one catch last week, but this came against a Jets’ defense that is the second highest graded unit on PFF. Now, the receiver is in a perfect bounce back spot against the Texans, who are the second worst graded defense this season. Before last week, Jones had led the Jags with a huge 29% target share across their previous five games, including 10 targets greater than 20 yards and seven redzone targets. Jones supplied 21.7 DraftKings PPG during this span and is underpriced for his upside in this terrific spot.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet, CHI vs. DET ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)

Ever since the Bears lost Darnell Mooney (ankle) for the season, Kmet has led the team with a 25.4% target share and a 97% route rate over the last three games. This is a massive role relative to these cheap salaries and the Lions are a superb spot for tight ends, with their defense giving up the most touchdowns to the position this season (10). Kmet torched this same Detroit defense for a career-best 23.4 DraftKings points in Week 10 and is the best player to stack with Fields, with both Chase Claypool (knee) and Equanimeous St. Brown (concussion) beat up, and possibly out again this weekend.

Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. SEA ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

Just like Wilson, Conklin should benefit with White back under center. In those three games with him at quarterback, Conklin obtained a target on 19% of his routes, while running a route 70% of his team’s dropbacks. The Seahawks have been dreadful at defending tight ends this season, giving up the third most yards (978) and fifth most touchdowns to the position (8), and Conklin is one of the best tight ends values on the slate in this elite spot.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

Author

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

NBA DFS Ownership: Night Slate

NBA DFS Ownership – Express Slates

NHL DFS Projections | Today’s Slate

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

NBA DFS Projections

NBA Data Central

MLB DFS Top Stack % for FanDuel

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.