First off, extremely happy that Damar Hamlin is doing much better! Sometimes we may forget this is a very dangerous game and our NFL DFS, betting, and fantasy lineups don’t mean that much in the grand scheme of things. Still, we’ll move onto our NFL DFS Week 18 picks, including some key Christian McCaffrey insight, in just a second.
We have entered the last week of the NFL regular season. Thank you for joining us on this journey and stayed tuned for more fantastic content at Stokastic for the NFL playoffs. Let’s go into the postseason with a huge Week 18.
This article features boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 18, including Christian McCaffrey, and DFS fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.
NFL DFS Week 18 Picks: Best High-Upside Plays
NFL DFS Week 18 Picks: The Booms
QB Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings – $8,200; 5.8% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 9.3% Boom
Currently listed as questionable, Jalen Hurts is in danger of missing his third-straight week due to a shoulder injury. Not only that, but the Eagles are in danger of dropping all the way down to the No. 5 seed if they lose this week and the Cowboys beat the Commanders. Luckily for the Eagles, the Giants have already clinched a playoff spot and the No. 6 seed in the NFC. In a rivalry game anything can happen and it seems as though Hurts is trending in the right direction to play against a Giants defense that ranks 29th in total DVOA this season.
Despite the higher salary on FanDuel, Hurts has by far the highest boom percentage for the quarterback position. He ranks second behind last week’s boom candidate Brock Purdy on DraftKings. The Eagles also have a slate-high Top Stack Rating on FanDuel where they are coming in at 13.5% to be the highest-scoring stack on the slate. Hurts changes everything for this Eagles offense. His duel threat ability makes him one of the best fantasy players any given week. Make sure he is playing, but Hurts is the quarterback with the highest ceiling this week.
RB Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings – $9,300; 14.2% Boom | FanDuel – $10,000; 14.7% Boom
Even though Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier looks like a great value, it is 49ers stud Christian McCaffrey who once again holds the top spot at the running back position. The 49ers still have a lot to play for as they are 11-point home favorites against the Cardinals who have nothing but pride to play for. McCaffrey is the most expensive player on both sites, but also leads the slate with the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and FanDuel at just under 15%. There will be enough value to plug and play the ceiling of McCaffrey.
Over the last five games, Christian McCaffrey has shown his ceiling by averaging 27.6 DraftKings points per game. He has rushed for over 100 yards in three of those five games, while scoring six total touchdowns during that time. The 49ers have won nine-straight games as they still have a chance at claiming the No. 1 seed with a win and an Eagles loss.
They clinch the No. 2 seed with a victory, so expect McCaffrey to get fed early and often. Other than Hurts, he has the second-highest fantasy score in our Stokastic projections. Christian McCaffrey is expensive, but worth every penny.
WR Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins
DraftKings – $8,600; 6.6% Boom | FanDuel – $8,600; 8.1% Boom
The wide receiver position is a bit of a crapshoot, but sticking with teams that have something to play for, Tyreek Hill looks like the player with the highest ceiling. A win at home against the Jets and a Patriots loss at the Bills would secure the last wild card spot in the AFC for the Dolphins. For a team who has lost five-straight, that would be quite the turnaround. Hill has under 100 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, but has an untouchable ceiling. He still ranks second behind Justin Jefferson in most receiving yards this season.
Priced at $8,600 on both sites, Hill looks much better on FanDuel where he has the second-highest boom percentage at the wide receiver position. The Jets have also lost five-straight games as their defense continues to slide with the losing streak. Despite the Jets already being eliminated from playoff contention, the Dolphins are only three-point home favorites based off of how poorly they have played recently. Even though the Dolphins won’t have Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, Hill can still take a slant to the house on any play.
TE Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles
DraftKings – $4,900; 12.1% Boom | FanDuel – $6,200; 10.6% Boom
Not having Travis Kelce on the main slate has opened the door for other tight ends to enter the equation. Going along with the Eagles stack, Dallas Goedert is the top tight end on the slate. He ranks in the top five on both sites for the highest boom percentage this week. Goedert has clearly struggled with quarterback Gardner Minshew behind center. Back-to-back weeks, Goedert put up single-digit DraftKings points. Those were also the first two games that Goedert has played since returning from his own shoulder injury.
Before his injury, Goedert posted touchdowns in back-to-back games while capturing his only 100-receiving yard game of the season. Even though Jalen Hurts may run the ball more than Minshew, he boosts the ceiling for everyone around him including Goedert. He missed the Eagles first game against the Giants unfortunately as they are allowing the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to the tight end position. Pairing Goedert with Hurts instead of A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith is a great salary-saver stack for this week.
NFL DFS Week 18 Picks: The Fades
QB Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
DraftKings – $6,800; 66.8% Bust | FanDuel – $7,500; 56.9% Bust
Targeting Tom Brady and his 90%+ bust percentage on both sites would be too easy since he may only play a few series. Justin Herbert is the fade candidate selection as the Chargers play at Mile High Stadium this week for their last regular season game. The Chargers with a win can claim the No. 5 seed or even if the Ravens (without Lamar Jackson) lose at the Bengals. Getting the No. 5 seed is massive as they will play either the Jaguars or Titans. The Broncos are three-point home favorites as this game features a very-low 40 total points.
Among the 26 teams on the slate, the Chargers have the fifth-lowest Top Stack Rating on FanDuel and the seventh-lowest on DraftKings. Herbert has averaged 223.5 passing yards per game in his last two games as the Chargers offense has been led by Austin Ekeler who has two touchdowns in back-to-back games. The best way to attack the Broncos defense is through the ground. Their defense ranks 22nd in run DVOA and fourth in pass DVOA this season. Even in a big game for the Chargers, expect Herbert to struggle against this elite pass defense.
RB Tony Pollard – Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings – $7,000; 58.9% Bust | FanDuel – $8,000; 53.8% Bust
After missing Week 17 due to a thigh injury, Cowboys running back Tony Pollard is healthy and in line to play Week 18. Unfortunately, his salary hasn’t come down much at all and his bust percentage on both sites remains well over 50%. Pollard is perfect for this article because most of his games are boom or bust. He has rushed for over 100 yards three times in 15 weeks as he continues to split time nearly 50/50 with Ezekiel Elliott. Despite being more involved in the pass game, it is tough to get behind Pollard at this salary on either site.
The Cowboys can clinch the division with a win and an Eagles loss, so they are certainly still playing for something. They are seven-point road favorites against a Commanders team who is starting fifth-round rookie Sam Howell at quarterback. Even though the Cowboys may win this game with ease, the Commanders defense does rank 10th in rush DVOA this season and this total is only 40.5 points. Sharing the backfield with Elliott and coming off of an injury last week, it doesn’t make sense to pay this steep price tag for Pollard.
WR Stefon Diggs – Buffalo Bills
DraftKings – $7,900; 51.8% Bust | FanDuel – $8,400; 42.0% Bust
It is hard to imagine playing a football game after seeing what happened on Monday Night Football for these Bills players. Every player will likely be different in how they approach and play the game this week. Focusing on the model, Stefon Diggs has one of the worst negative leverage scores at the wide receiver position. Over the last three weeks, not counting last Monday Night, Diggs is averaging an uncharacteristic 3.3 receptions on 5.3 targets for 41 receiving yards per game. During that time he is also averaging just 7.3 DraftKings points per game.
The Bills are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC as they can capture it with a win and a Chiefs loss. They can also drop all the way down to the No. 3 seed with a loss. However, the Bills are 7.5-point home favorites against the Patriots who are also playing for their playoff lives. The Patriots defense ranks second in pass DVOA this season and held the Bills to only 223 passing yards in their first meeting. Diggs is still the top target for quarterback Josh Allen, but he looks like a bad play on paper. This game is going to be extremely tough to judge from a DFS standpoint because of the emotion of it all, so take your best educated guess and play it how you want to play it.
TE Cole Kmet – Chicago Bears
DraftKings – $4,600; 59.2% Bust | FanDuel – $5,800; 54.8% Bust
Another player who has above a 50% bust percentage on both sites is Bears tight end Cole Kmet. A Bears loss to the Vikings at home could lock up the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft. They have already ruled out quarterback Justin Fields this week and it begs the question if Kmet will get that much playing time at all. The tight end position is wide open making Kmet an intriguing play against a Vikings defense that is allowing 396.8 yards per game, which ranks as the second-highest in the league this season.
Even in an enticing matchup paired with a cheap salary, Kmet isn’t worth the salary savings. He has failed to top 30 receiving yards in three-straight games and only caught two passes against the Lions who are allowing the most yards per game this season. Outside of the Giants, the Bears have the second-worst Top Stack Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. No reason to get to Kmet or anyone on the Bears this week.
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