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NFL DFS Week 3 First Look: Josh Allen’s INSANE Production Impossible to Deny Against Dolphins (September 25)




NFL DFS Week 3 First Look: Josh Allen's INSANE Production Impossible Deny Against Dolphins (September 25) 2022

On the schedule for Week 3 is a 13-game slate, including five totals over 50 points. This NFL DFS first look article takes an early look at the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each major position.

NFL First Look: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks

As always, be sure to be watching all of the Stokastic NFL shows on the Stokastic YouTube Channel all the way up to lock to get the breaking news and best Week 3 NFL DFS picks.


Josh Allen, BUF vs. MIA ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Allen is worth every penny this week. He has been outstanding, with seven touchdowns, just two interceptions and a superb 8.9 yards per pass attempt. As a rusher, Allen has also been active, with 5.5 carries per game. By a wide margin, Allen is the highest graded quarterback on PFF. He enters this week scoring at least 32 DraftKings points in four straight starts, and this Miami team he is facing has been pitiful, giving up the most yards per pass in the league (8.7). This game’s total is tied for the highest on the slate (52), and the Bills’ implied team is the second largest on the board (28.75 points). Allen has destroyed his opponents in his last five games with totals of at least 50, averaging a whopping 38 DraftKings points per game.

Carson Wentz, WAS vs. PHI ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Wentz is underpriced, particularly on DraftKings. Quarterbacking a Washington offense that has thrown on 72% of their plays, Wentz is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt and has seven touchdowns against just three interceptions. This has resulted in over 300 yards and at least three touchdowns passing in both of Wentz’s first two starts with the Commanders, translating into 32.3 DraftKings points per game. This Sunday presents a division matchup against the Eagles that carries the fourth-highest total on the slate (50 points). As 5-point underdogs, the Commanders should continue to rely on their passing game, and another performance over 30 DraftKings points is certainly in the realm of possibilities for Wentz.

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Running Backs

Leonard Fournette, TB vs. GB ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

Fournette’s price tags have dropped to levels that make him a tough value to overlook in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has handled a massive workload, leading all running backs in snap rate (86.6%) and ranking second in carries per game (22.5), including four red zone rushes. Fournette has also run a route on 73% of dropbacks and garnered a target on 13% of his routes. By no means is this incredible usage reflected in Fournette’s current salaries, and he brings a ceiling north of 20 fantasy points in this plus spot. The Buccaneers are 2.5-point home favorites, and this Packers defense has yielded the fifth most yards per rush (5.6).

David Montgomery, CHI vs. HOU ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

After finishing eighth in total carries last year (228), Montgomery has maintained his role as the Bears feature back this season. He is averaging 16 carries per game, including four red zone carries, while playing 71.7% of the snaps. Furthermore, Montgomery has seen a target on 24% of his routes while running a route on 63% of dropbacks. Contrary to popular belief, Montgomery has looked spry this season, ranking 10th among running backs in elusive rating on PFF. He just exposed the Packers for over 100 yards rushing on the road and now returns home this week as a 2.5-point favorite against a Texans defense that is the fifth-worst-graded unit on PFF. As a home favorite over the last two seasons, Montgomery has been excellent, topping 20 DraftKings points in four of five starts.

Miles Sanders, PHI vs. WAS ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)

The Eagles carry the fourth-highest implied team on the slate (27.5 points), and Sanders is a cheap way to gain exposure to the club. Back to full strength, he has received 15 carries per game, including three red zone attempts, while playing 52.7% of the snaps. Also, Sanders has run a route on 40% of dropbacks and obtained a target on 16% of those routes. As for his matchup, this Washington defense is surrendering the most yards per carry in the league (7.6) and they are the seventh-worst-graded unit on PFF. Additionally, the Eagles are 5-point favorites, which bodes extremely for Sanders, who is collecting 15 DraftKings points per game in his last five starts as a favorite.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. BUF ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

Coming off his 45-DraftKings-point outburst against the Ravens, Hill is surely going to gain a ton of attention this week. But considering he is competing in the highest total on the slate (52 points), Hill is an extremely tough fade at these price tags. He ranks 11th in the league in target share (30.9%), fourth in air yards (247), second in targets greater than 20 yards (6) and third in yards after the catch (104) while running a route on 81% of dropbacks. The Dolphins are 5.5-point underdogs in this anticipated shootout, and Hill averages 27 DraftKings points per game as an underdog in his career (17 games).

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. MIN ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

St. Brown was a featured play in this article last week, and he remains vastly underpriced on both sites. In the Week 2 win over the Commanders, St. Brown erupted for a career-best 42.4 DraftKings points. He caught 8 of his 12 targets for 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns and also chipped in with 68 yards rushing on two carries. In his last eight games, St. Brown has now seen double-digit targets in every start and scored at least 20 DraftKings points seven times. Through the first two weeks of the season, he ranks third in target share (33.8%), including four red zone targets. This matchup’s total is tied for the high mark of this 13-game slate (52 points), and Detroit is a 6-point underdog, which should result in a pass-heavy gameplan. It’s hard to imagine St. Brown’s impressive run not continuing in this setting, and this may be the cheapest he gets on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the remainder of the season.

Greg Dortch, ARI vs. LAR ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)

With DeAndre Hopkins (suspended) and Rondale Moore (hamstring) unavailable, Dortch has been the Cardinals No. 2 receiver. He has seen a solid 15.7% target share while running a route on 86% of dropbacks, with 85% of his routes coming from the slot. Dortch is averaging 14.4 DraftKings points per game, and with Hopkins and Moore absent again this Sunday, Dortch should have zero issues out producing these low salaries. This matchup against the Rams has the third-largest total on the slate (50.5 points), and Los Angeles has been abysmal against the pass, surrendering the second-most yards per pass (8.1).

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, KC vs. IND ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

Per usual, Kelce is in a tier of his own and an elite expensive target for GPPs, especially with this season-high price tag possibly scaring some DFS players away. Running a route on 88% of dropbacks, Kelce has seen a target on 24% of his routes, including three red zone targets through his first two starts of the season. Despite facing two offenses in the Texans and Jaguars that don’t heavily utilize a tight end, the Colts have already given up two touchdowns to the position this season. The Chiefs’ implied team total is the third highest on the slate (28 points), and Kelce has provided 21 DraftKings points per game over the last three seasons when the Chiefs’ total is at least 25.

Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. ARI ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Higbee has seen amazing usage this season. Only trailing Marc Andrews, Higbee ranks second in target share among tight ends (26.32%) while running a route on 88% of dropbacks. Notably, four of Higbee’s targets have come in the red zone, which also ranks second at his position. Going against a susceptible Cardinals defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards per pass (7.7), the Rams sport the fifth-largest implied team total on the board (27.25 points). While they have faced two elite tight ends in Kelce and Darren Waller, it is worth noting this Arizona defense has given up the most catches (19), yards (212) and touchdowns (3) to the tight end position this season. Higbee is priced more appropriately on FanDuel, but he is one of the best values available on DraftKings at only $4,500.

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