NFL DFS Week 4 First Look: Jonathan Taylor Ready to Bounce Back After Two Quiet Outings (October 2)

Sunday’s main slate delivers a 12-game slate for DFS players. This NFL DFS first look article takes an early look at the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each major position.

NFL First Look: Week 4 NFL DFS Picks

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Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, BUF vs. BAL ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)

With Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts all priced similarly on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Allen is the best choice of the trio. He easily gets the best matchup of the group, going against a Ravens’ defense that has yielded the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.5). The Bills’ implied team total is tied for the largest the board (27.5 points) and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (51.5 points). Through his first three starts, Allen ranks second in pass touchdowns (nine) and eighth in yards per attempt (7.7). As a rusher, Allen ranks fifth in both rushes per game (6.3) and red zone carries (5). After last week, the dual threat quarterback is now generating an absurd 37 DraftKings points per game in his last six starts in a total of 50 points or higher.

Marcus Mariota, ATL vs. CLE ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)

Mariota has been a pleasant surprise in Atlanta. On top of ranking sixth in yards per pass attempt (8.0), he has been extremely active on the ground, ranking fourth among quarterbacks in rushes per game (8.3). Notably, seven of Mariota’s 25 carries have come in the red zone, which ranks second in the NFL at his position. The large workload as rusher is clearly by design and gives Mariota a very solid floor week in and week out. For this Sunday, the Falcons return home after a two-game road trip to face a Cleveland defense that is the ninth-worst-graded unit on PFF. The Browns have played at a much faster pace this season, ranking sixth in plays per game (70) and this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (50 points). Mariota should exceed 20 fantasy points in this spot and is standing out as the best way to save at quarterback for Week 4.

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Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. TEN ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)

After back-to-back quiet outings, expect a huge bounce-back performance from Taylor this Sunday. While the results haven’t been up to par, Taylor has still handled an elite role this season, averaging 20.3 carries per game – including 10 red zone carries – while playing 76% of the snaps. Additionally, he has run a route on 61% of dropbacks while seeing a target on 16% of those routes. As for the matchup, no defense in the league has surrendered more yards per rush than the Titans (5.8), and the Colts are 3-point home favorites in this spot. Taylor has topped 20 DraftKings points in seven consecutive starts as a home favorite and is an elite high-end value at these sub-$9,000 salaries.

Jamaal Williams, DET vs. SEA ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

Deandre Swift has been dealing with a nagging ankle injury to start the season, and to make matters worse, he injured his shoulder this past Sunday. On Monday, Lions’ HC Dan Campbell suggested Swift could miss a few weeks and while he doesn’t have an injury designation yet, it’s hard to imagine Swift suits up this Sunday, opening the door for Williams to see an expanded role. With Swift banged up and handling a season-low in snaps in Week 3, Williams carried the ball 20 times — including two red zone carries – for 87 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Vikings. Plus, in the two starts he made sans Swift last year, Williams obtained 18 carries per game, including five red zone carries. While his role as a receiver won’t be compelling, Williams is a strong bet for 20-plus carries, including all the red zone work if Swift sits out this near perfect matchup against the Seahawks. Facing this Seattle defense that is the second-worst-graded unit on PFF, Detroit’s implied team total is tied for the highest on the slate (27.5 points) and they are 6-point home favorites. In the likely event Swift is inactive, Williams will be an easy choice this Sunday.

Dameon Pierce, HOU vs. LAC ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)

After seeing limited work in his NFL debut, Pierce has seen an immense role the past two weeks, averaging 17.5 carries per game — including 10 red zone attempts – while logging 60.7% of the snaps. As a receiver, Pierce has also run a route on 32% of dropbacks. Pierce’s price tags have yet to adjust to this large role and now comes a home matchup against the Chargers that carries the fifth-highest total on the slate (44.5 points), making him arguably the best value play at his position.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, PHI vs. JAX ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Brown is an excellent way to gain a share of this booming Eagles offense that is tied for the highest implied team total on the slate (27.5 points). This season, Brown ranks second in the league in target share among receivers (33%), only trailing Cooper Kupp. Notably, five of Brown’s targets have been in the red zone. As a deep threat, he has gained four targets over 20 yards and ranks fifth in the league in air yards (335). For his career, Brown is contributing 19.5 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of 25 points or greater.

Amari Cooper, CLE vs. ATL ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

As a Brown, Cooper has seen tremendous usage, ranking seventh in the league in target share (30.7%), while running a route on 92% of dropbacks. Of Cooper’s 27 targets, three have come in the red zone and four have been over 20 yards. He has provided at least 26 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts and should continue to flourish in this plus spot against the Falcons. On top of this game’s total ranking second on the slate (50 points), Cleveland’s implied team total is the fourth largest on the board (25.75 points). Particularly at only $6,300 for DraftKings’ full PPR scoring system, Cooper is an elite value and bring back option if rostering Mariota.

Treylon Burks, TEN vs. IND ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Burks appears to be locked into a full-time going forward. After being eased into action, he ran a route on all but one of his team’s dropbacks this past Sunday. Overall, Burks has seen a target on 23% of his routes this season and when we combine this elite usage with the newfound high route rate, Burks is going to erupt soon, quite possibly this Sunday against the Colts. As a 3.5-point road underdog, Tannehill should find himself approaching 40 attempts and Burks should be the main beneficiary from the heavy volume, helping him easily out produce these cheap salaries.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. CLE ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

The Falcons made it a point of emphasis to Pitts more involved this past week. Against the Seahawks, he racked up a team-high eight targets – including four targets greater than 20 yards – resulting in an eye popping 42.1% target share. Given the Falcons walked away with their first win of the season in this game, they should look to feature Pitts again this Sunday against the Browns. As noted above, this game has the second-largest total on the slate (50 points) and in this type of environment, Pitts brings far better upside than his current price tags suggest.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. NJY ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Going against a Jets’ defense that is allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.5), Freiermuth has a ton of merit. After catching 60 passes and seven touchdowns during his rookie campaign last year, Freiermuth has been one of the most utilized tight ends in the league this season, seeing a target on 25% of his routes. Freiermuth has cracked double-digit DraftKings points in three of his past five starts and is one of the better cheap tight end gambles this slate has to offer.

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