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FREE Saturday Night Prime Time Single Game Breakdown: DAL at LAR
FREE Sunday Night Prime Time Single Game Breakdown: PHI at NO
Yahoo! DFS Football General Strategy
As with most sites, there are many viable strategies that can be successful in large field tournaments and of course we do need the same amount of favor from Lady Luck as we do elsewhere.
Key things to remember are that this is a “half-PPR” site meaning receptions are worth 0.5 points and the minimum salary is $10, with an average salary per player of $22 and this week Patrick Mahomes is at the top of the pricing list at $39. The full scoring parameters can be found here.
If you are using an optimizer, it is important to remember that you will still need to input the lineups by hand (this lack of automation also helps keep away some of the “mega shark” players). You will also want to closely look at the lineups because the automation will look to use the cheaper quarterbacks and it will also home in on players that may not be “good plays” on other sites and they will not be highlighted in the mainstream analysis that is available to The Masses each week.
Awesemo NFL Rankings
One of the most useful features of the Awesemo.com premium content is the personal player rankings from Alex Baker aka Awesemo for all of the main sports. The players are graded separately for each DFS site with ratings for both “projected points” and “value” receiving an A through E report card style grade (for those of you who dabble in NHL, the skating lines/units are rated both as groups and also as individual players).
As a sneak preview, for this article I will be sharing the Awesemo grades with my thoughts as well highlighted in green. Full Rankings (Premium Content)
Divisional Round NFL Strategy
This round of the playoffs brings in the four survivors of Wildcard Weekend along with the four teams receiving first round byes. Off the top we see a dramatic difference in the projected game totals with the addition of Kansas City, New England, New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams. Last weekend only one game projected for more than 45 points, however, this weekend we should see three with 50+ totals, including a robust 56.5 between Indianapolis and Kansas City and the “lowest” game is at 47 between the Chargers and Patriots, which would have been the second highest in the Wildcard round.
For this week’s article, the analysis will focus on highlighting a couple of key players at each position. More in-depth analysis can be found in the premium NFL articles.
Quarterback
This should be an exciting week with the player pricing on Yahoo! keeping all eight quarterbacks in the mix as viable options and the WR/TE corps is easily a dozen deep before we even start to have concerns about upside potential.
Andrew Luck – IND at KC – $36 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value C – it seems like a lifetime ago that there were very valid concerns about Andrew Luck’s arm strength and his ability to “make all the throws” after missing the entire 2017 season. After a somewhat tentative start, he put all concerns to rest setting career highs in touchdowns, attempts, completions, completion % and his 4,593 passing yards were his second highest total and ranked #5 in the league.
From a DVOA efficiency perspective, the Kansas City defense was the worst in the league against the run, though they were middle-of-the pack against the pass. The problem is their highflying offense had other teams throwing from the jump and they ended the season first or second for most attempts, completions and yards allowed and we #9 ceding 30 aerial scores. While they led the league with 52 sacks (tied with Pittsburgh) their 2.37% interception rate was only #17.
All of the above is a long way of saying that Andrew Luck has a dream matchup this week and we can pair him with any number of his pass catching options in T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron, Dontrelle Inman, Chester Rogers and even RB Nyheim Hines (third on the team with 81 targets this season) if we are looking for a differentiation play that still possesses correlation. Upside is there and 30+ fantasy points are in play if the weather cooperates and Kansas City can put points on the board. If KC doesn’t keep up, then we will see more Marlon Mack and a “faster clock” as a result.
Patrick Mahomes – KC vs IND – $39 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value C – while the Colts were surprisingly stingy against the run this season with the #5 DVOA, they were near the bottom-third of the league with the #18 DVOA against the pass from an efficiency perspective, but they were excellent allowing just 21 aerial scores tied for the third lowest total in the league.
As I have mentioned countless times in my articles this season, Mahomes is a WIZARD! He was the fasted quarterback to 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, which is amazing when we consider he has played in 17 regular season games. The no-look passes are just icing on the cake.
He lead the league with 50 passing touchdowns and was second with 5,097 yards and a 113.8 rating, there is no real need for me to go on… he is the most expensive player in the pool for a reason and we know exactly who his two favorite targets are in TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill who had three and four multi-touchdown games respectively this season. Upside is there and 30+ fantasy points are in play if the weather cooperates and the Colts can put points on the board.
Drew Brees – NO vs PHI – $35 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value D – rounding out our trio of top-shelf options is former Purdue wunderkind Drew Brees who had arguably the most efficient season in his career with a personal best 115.7 passer rating on the strength of a 74.4% completion rate, a career low five interceptions and 32 touchdowns (with another four rushing, also a career high) even with sitting out the final week of the season.
We know the Eagles secondary is vulnerable with the myriad of injuries causing them to cycle through what seems like a cast of thousands on their way to the #23 DVOA passing rating according to Football Outsiders. In simpler terms, they also had a bottom-five ranking against both opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers from a fantasy perspective.
The obvious Saint to pair with Brees is WR Michael Thomas who led the league with 125 receptions and an astounding 85% catch rate. Keep in mind that Ted Ginn, Jr. played in Week 16 after missing a large portion of the season and he was held out in Week 17 as a precaution to make sure he was ready for the playoffs. He is my preferred option over rooking Tre’Quan Smith. If he didn’t have such a great pair of running backs to lean on, we know he would be price and rated the same as the two recommended plays above.
Running Back
We want to keep in mind that while running backs are very important, Yahoo! is a “half-PPR” site which will not penalize running backs that are not as active in the passing game.
Alvin Kamara – NO vs PHI – $32 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value D – when the Saints crushed the Eagles in Week 11 48-7, the former University of Tennessee stalwart was not asked to do much but he was efficient with 13 caries for 71 yards and taking his only receiving target for 37 yards and a score. Philadelphia has had mediocre results against opposing running backs with the #15 rushing DVOA and few of their opponents have been as talented as Alvin Kamara We love him for his production potential and we will be paying for it – I am totally fine with that.
Todd Gurley – LAR vs DAL – $37 Awesemo Grade: Points D, Value E– we last saw Gurley on December 16th when he played against Philadelphia in a game the Rams lost at home despite his 12/48/2 on the ground and 13 targets for 10/76/0 receiving. Los Angeles chose to be very cautious with Gurley’s sore knee and he has the better part of a month off.
The Cowboys have the #4 ranked rushing DVOA and they were able to keep the vaunted Seattle ground game in check at home last weekend. They will be a tough matchup, but they are on the road and head coach has had two full weeks to implement new offensive wrinkles in his game plan. Nearly an “Incomplete” grade – we just do not know what to comfortably expect with his injury.
Damien Williams – KC vs IND – $17 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value C – with the mystery surrounding the extent of Spencer Ware’s hamstring injury, he is expected to practice at some point this week so we should have more information to go on. He also had some limited practice prior to Week 17 but was still inactive for the season finale.
My preference is still Damien Williams and we do not want to lose sight that Kansas City gave him a two-year contract prior to Week 17. The former Dolphin was the beneficiary of playing in a high-powered offense and over the last four weeks of the season he was in on 154 snaps rushing 42 times for 217 yards and four touchdowns with a 5.2ypc and he hauled in 18 of his 19 targets for 135 yards and two more scores.
This is of course no guarantee for future performance, however, most of his action and production came against the Ravens, Chargers and Seahawks who all have solid defenses and were well incentivized to win their respective matchups against Kansas City. Our average running back, doesn’t really bring anything to the table – but doesn’t really take anything away either.
Darren Sproles – PHI at NO – $11 Awesemo Grade: Points D, Value A– in the first quarter of the Eagles at Bears game last week it seemed like Wendell Smallwood – $12 was going to be the lead back after getting 30 yards on his first two touches, however, he ended the day with just 28 snaps with 8 carries for 20 yards catching two of his three targets for another 20 yards.
As the game progressed, it was the trusted 14-year veteran Sproles who was on the field in key situations and he finished with 38 snaps rushing for 13/21/0 and catching two of his three targets for 14 yards. While he has been injured the better part of the last two seasons, we know the coaching staff trusts him in high leverage spots and this game is likely to be full of them. All it takes is one nifty move on a screen pass and Sproles could be off to the races. Great value, but we knew that… now can he find the end zone or break off a long screen for 40-50 yards.
Wide Receiver
This weekend nearly every quarterback has at least one if not two clear options we can utilizing in a synergistic gambit in the hopes of capturing both ends of a multi-touchdown performance.
Julian Edelman – NE vs LAC – $20 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value C – while the Chargers have a solid pass defense, checking in with the #9 DVOA per Football Outsiders during the regular season, they are still a West Coast team travelling to play on the early Saturday time slot (again!) and they will be facing a rested Patriots squad for a playoff game in Foxboro.
Let’s see what is available for Tom Terrific – Josh Gordon – gone. Phillip Dorsett – nah. Cordarrelle Patterson – was more effective as the emergency running back. Rob Gronkowski – a shell of his former self. That leaves Tom Brady with Edelman as his most trusted receiver and someone we will want to give strong consideration to playing at this fair price point with or without his quarterback.
Do not overlook Chris Hogan – $11 who is also in play at a near minimum price and he did see 11 targets in Week 17, though he was disappointing in the first four weeks of the season when Edelman was suspended seeing just 15 targets during that span and then he was lost in the shuffle when Josh Gordon came aboard. Perhaps now is his time to shine. Fair rating for his prominence in a still crowded offense with many options for Tom Brady to target.
Robert Woods – LAR vs DAL – $20 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value C – this seems like a steal of a deal getting the Rams leading pass catcher who topped the team in all receiving categories with 131 targets for 86/1,219/6 and added 19 carries for 157 yards and another score. To be fair, we also need to give Brandin Cooks – $23 his due and proper as he was right there with 116 targets for 80/1,204/5 and also had 10 carries for 68 yards and a score.
Dallas does have the #12 passing DVOA, but they are going against coach Sean McVay who has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup and if the Cowboys focus on the passing game too much, Todd Gurley will be making them pay. Josh Reynolds – $10 is someone who could very well be overlooked as he does not have a consistent track record, though anything goes on a short slate and he did have two different games this season where he hauled in a pair of touchdowns. Favorable twin rating for this duo, they cost right around the per slot salary average and we know they will be involved in Sean McVay’s game plan.
Tight Ends
There are a plethora of tight end options this weekend, so let’s hit the highlights for the full player pool.
Travis Kelce – KC vs IND – $30 and Eric Ebron – IND at KC – $26 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value E – are both fine plays as mentioned in the quarterback section, but we are paying a premium for this duo. Ratings reflect the premium price for top-shelf production.
Zach Ertz – PHI at NO – $22 Awesemo Grade: Points A, Value D – is at a more palatable price point in what should be a potentially high scoring game and he set the all-time tight end reception record this season on 156 targets culminating in 116/1,163/8 – teammate Dallas Goedert – $11 is a viable discount dandy and he had four targets for 20 yards and a touchdown on a pair of catches. Clearly we know he is a top producer, gets a grade boost for the price discount from the top two options.
Rob Gronkowski – NE vs LAC – $18 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value D – maybe Gronk does no best and he had the right idea about being hesitant to play this season. He has had to deal with so many injuries, it looks like this may be the best we will see going forward. Also, it sure felt like he did a lot more blocking this season than ever before… still, the future Hall of Famer likely has one or two more big games left in him. Over their last four games the Chargers have allowed an average of 10.0 targets to opposing tight ends for 5.3 receptions and 63.0 yards and one total touchdown – albeit they faced BAL x2, DEN and KC which is not an imposing list outside of Travis Kelce. Solid Grade for his touchdown potential, but it is an expensive risk.
Antonio Gates – LAC at NE – $11 Awesemo Grade: Points D, Value E – we know that QB Philip Rivers loves to look for him in the red zone, however, keep in mind that Hunter Henry – $14 is slated to make his return after missing the season with a knee injury, but he will likely be on some sort of snap count. This rating is expected as he is down the priority list in the offense.
Blake Jarwin – DAL at LAR – $12 Awesemo Grade: Points D, Value D – he is cheap and some may say the #4 option in the Cowboys offense with Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and Dak Prescott (rushing upside) ahead of him. This rating is expected as he is down the priority list in the offense.
Gerald Everett – LAR vs DAL – $11 Awesemo Grade: Points D, Value D – heading into Week 17 he had seen 6, 7 and 7 targets for 14 receptions and 103 yards. Plus he was one of the six different Rams players to have a multi-touchdown game this season. This rating is expected as he is down the priority list in the offense.
Defense/Special Teams
Yes, there are a lot of high scoring teams in action this weekend, so it is important to understand the scoring system for points allowed on Yahoo!:
| Points Allowed Tier | FPs |
| Points Allowed 0 | 10 |
| Points Allowed 1-6 | 7 |
| Points Allowed 7-13 | 4 |
| Points Allowed 14-20 | 1 |
| Points Allowed 21-27 | 0 |
| Points Allowed 28-34 | -1 |
| Points Allowed 35+ | -4 |
Also recall that in the “Game for the Ages” in Week 11 when the Los Angeles Rams bested Kansas City 54-51 there were three defensive touchdowns along with 8 combined sacks, 4 fumble recoveries and 3 interceptions. That week despite allowing 51 points, the Rams where the top scoring D/ST on Yahoo! with 21 fantasy points and Kansas City was tied for #6 with 11 fantasy points.
Los Angeles Rams vs DAL – $17 Awesemo Grade: Points B, Value E – during the regular season the Cowboys allowed 56 sacks, which was second behind only the Houston Texans 62, all suffered by Deshaun Watson. So there should be some opportunities for the Rams, though the Seahawks did only get one last weekend. Best points grade and sacks could be plentiful, we are paying top dollar for that upside.
New England Patriots vs LAC – $18 Awesemo Grade: Points D, Value E – the Patriots and coach Bill Belichick have had two weeks to prepare and although the Chargers and Philip Rivers have limited opponents sacks (#22 at 34) and turnovers (#18 with 19 combined – 12 INTs and 7 fumbles), playing in New England during the winter months for a warm weather team is never fun. Fair grade with the top price tag and veteran opposing quarterback.
New Orleans Saints vs PHI – $11 Awesemo Grade: Points C, Value C – if we are looking for a cheapie, then we can consider the Saints who should be putting points on the board and forcing the Eagles to the air in order to keep up, which should provide opportunities for some defensive fantasy goodness. This squad will likely be the most popular this weekend.
Hopefully this helps get your lineup construction process jump started and on your way to a big showing in the Yahoo! signature $250K contest!
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
