Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Total: 44.5
Line: GB -3
Vikings passing game
We knew that the Vikings wanted to pound the rock this season but 10 pass attempts? My goodness. Kirk Cousins threw an early touchdown pass last week before Minnesota destroyed Atlanta with their defense and run game. Up 28-0 at one point, Cousins just practiced putting the ball in his running backs’ guts. Obviously he is going to triple those attempts in most games but this new offense under Kevin Stefanski will limit Cousins’ upside unless the Vikings are chasing points, which you don’t project very often, especially given their defense. Combined that with an offense that averaged 36.5 seconds per snap (per Pat Thorman) and it is tough to get very excited about Cousins as a fantasy prospect.
Minnesota’s new offense definitely hurts the upside of both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Thielen scored an early touchdown last week and then disappeared, as the Vikings ran the ball down Atlanta’s throat. Again, Cousins will throw way more than 10 passes this weekend and Thielen has a very good track record against the Packers. Over his last three games against Green Bay, Thielen has posted stat lines of 9-96-0, 12-131-1 and 8-125-1. He only lined up in the slot 27 percent of the time last week, which isn’t surprising considering Minnesota’s WR3 is Chad Beebe, who can’t play outside. If Josh Doctson is active, that could push Thielen back to the inside, which helps.
Diggs, meanwhile, is significantly cheaper than Thielen in DFS. He popped up on the injury report late last week with a hamstring issue, worrying everyone. When Diggs isn’t 100 percent, he is a significantly worse fantasy performer. He only played 60 percent of the snaps but if he gets full practices in all week, he’s fine to use as a low-end WR2. The change in philosophy makes Thielen more of a high-end WR2 and Diggs a lower end one.
Vikings running game
If Dalvin Cook stays healthy, he is going to be a top-five fantasy running back. He looked fantastic in Week 1, running for 111 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. He saw two targets in the passing game, which doesn’t sound like a lot but when you consider that Minnesota threw the ball 10 times, you walk away feeling great about Cook’s workload. Green Bay’s defense is much improved in 2019 but Cook is a locked-in top-seven running back and is still just $7,200 on DK. He’ll be over $8,000 for the majority of the season.
Packers passing game
Aaron Rodgers predictably struggled in Week 1, facing the vaunted Bears defense in Chicago. While Week 2’s matchup isn’t much better against Minnesota’s dangerous front seven, you still have to feel more comfortable with him, especially at home. The Vikings allowed two garbage time touchdown passes last week but other than that, they were dominant. They generated pressure on nearly 39 percent of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks and have strong cornerbacks. Rodgers did have an underwhelming home outing against the Vikings last year, throwing for 289 yards and one touchdown, making him a back-end QB1 for me.
Back on the main slate, we can target Davante Adams this week. He also had a poor showing in Week 1 but things will be better, as Green Bay reached the red zone just twice in that game. Adams will see plenty of coverage from Xavier Rhodes, who shadowed Julio Jones about 70 percent of the time last week. He shadowed Adams on over 70 percent of his routes in both meetings last year, yet Adams found the end zone in both meetings. Adams is an every-week starter and despite the tougher matchup, is at least a little intriguing on DK at just $7,700.
Meanwhile, it appears I was wrong regarding Green Bay’s number-two wide receiver. In Week 1, Marquez Valdes-Scantling played 41 snaps, operating as the second option in two-wide sets over Geronimo Allison. Geronimo played just 30 snaps on offense, lining up in the slot 22 times. MVS appears to be the deep threat in this offense, sporting a 13.5 aDOT but even though Calvin Ridley found the end zone last week, the Vikings have still been very good against opposing number-two receivers. In 2018, the Vikings coughed up the second-fewest yards per game (32.0) to opposing secondary wideouts.
Jimmy Graham scored the only touchdown of that Thursday night game. I am at least intrigued by Graham because in 2018, he offered very little field-stretching ability. He averaged just 1.14 yards per route run, 62nd among all tight ends. Last week, that number was at 1.50 and he was responsible for 38 percent of the team’s air yards in that game. If he starts to make plays down the field and create separation, he’ll be way less touchdown-dependent. He’s still in that TE14 range for me but keep an eye on Graham over the next few weeks. We saw a lot of targets funnel to Austin Hooper last week (9 catches, 9 targets, 77 yards), as Minnesota’s corners played pretty well. I actually don’t hate Graham this week.
Packers running game
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams were the only active running backs for the Packers last Thursday night. Neither did much but it is worth noting that Williams had seven touches and played 41 percent of the snaps. He will occasionally get passing and two-minute work because of his strong pass-blocking ability, which can limit Jones’ ceiling. Jones is still the lead back and is only $5,400 on DK but the Vikings just stuffed 21 percent of Atlanta’s carries last week, per Football Outsiders. Given the offense he’s in and potential, he’s still tough to sit, but is more of a low-end RB2 in this tough matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Total: 43.5
Line: HOU -8.5
Jaguars passing game
No. He is not a created player from Madden. Gardner Minshew is real and will be starting at quarterback for the Jaguars this week. Nick Foles broke his collarbone last week and Minshew stepped in and impressed, completing 22-of-25 passes for 275 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s a lot more mobile than Foles ever was and if you want to punt him at $4,800 on DraftKings, I guess I won’t blame you. The Texans secondary is very weak but I doubt you are planning on starting Minshew in any formats.
How does he impact these receivers, though? Dede Westbrook as my guy all offseason because of how often Foles has targeted the slot throughout his career. Westbrook once again lined up in the slot a ton, doing so 85.3 percent of the time in Week 1. His touchdown catch came from Minshew, for what it’s worth, and it came from the slot. I am slightly downgrading Dede for the season but he could be sneaky here. Despite the touchdown, he was a tad underwhelming as a chalk option last week and with Minshew in, no one will want him, especially at a “meh” $5,400 price tag. The Jaguars are road dogs here, which should lead to plenty of passes, keeping Dede in the WR3 discussion in a good matchup.
Both D.J. Chark and Chris Conley made some big plays down the field last week. They each found the end zone, while Conley led the team in targets with seven. He hauled in a beautiful ball from Foles in the opening quarter, while Chark made multiple big plays, posting 146 yards and a score, while seeing 106 air yards. You could make the case for either as DFS GPP options in the right matchup, and this might be it. Other than that, no need to look at these guys.
Jaguars running game
The overall fantasy points didn’t wow you but I left last week’s game very pleased with Leonard Fournette. He dominated the workload, handling 17 of the 18 running back touches. Fournette was also targeted six times, hauling in four passes. Other than the fumble, Fournette looked awesome and now with no viable pass-catching back behind him, he is game script-proof, making him way more enticing. The Texans were good against the run last year but they are now without Jadeveon Clowney, while allowing the Saints to average seven yards per carry on Monday night. Fournette is under-priced at $6,300 on DraftKings and is one of a few backs who has legitimate 25-touch upside.
Texans passing game
Deshaun Watson is insanely special. The kid just makes play after play and the only thing I don’t like about watching him is the fact that I’m terrified his offensive line is going to get him killed. He was magical on Monday night, throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns, while adding 40 rushing yards and another score. He went to the medical tent twice after hurting his back on the touchdown run and I’m sure he’s sore, but Watson is good to go and is a locked-in top-five quarterback. Watson was pressured on 50 percent of his dropbacks in Week 1, an alarming number that will likely kill some drives. He’s not my favorite high-end DFS option this week but we know he has massive upside and has one of the best group of weapons in all of football.
Speaking of special, how about DeAndre Hopkins? Eight catches, 111 yards and a pair of touchdowns for the league’s best receiver and it could have been an even bigger night had it not been for a pair of rare drops. 13 of Watson’s 30 pass attempts went Hopkins’ way and while he will see Jalen Ramsey this week, I don’t really care. No one has a better release in all of football than Hopkins, who has gotten Ramsey for some big plays throughout his career. Is it the greatest matchup? No, of course not. But Hopkins is incredible and always in play.
Will Fuller only had two catches on Monday night but one of them was a brilliant 54-yard reception where he went over top of the defender’s head. Any concerns about his knee should be put to rest, as he played 98 percent of the snaps in this game. It was odd to see him not score in a game alongside Watson but the upside is always tough to pass on, even in weaker matchups. We could see Keke Coutee (ankle) make his season debut on Sunday but Fuller is clearly an every-down player in an elite offense. He’s an upside WR3 play going forward.
Texans running game
The Texans added both Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde during the offseason, with the latter joining the team in wake of Lamar Miller’s ACL tear. On Monday night, Johnson played 42 snaps while Hyde was at 25. Both looked good at times, especially Hyde, who rushed for 83 yards on 10 carries. This matchup isn’t great but as big home favorites, you’d think Hyde would see more work than Johnson, making him at least interesting as a desperation FLEX option in standard formats. Duke, meanwhile, remains a PPR FLEX against a Jacksonville team that allowed seven combined receptions to Kansas City running backs last weekend. Neither are priorities in DFS, though Hyde is almost free and could get up to 15 touches and some goal line work.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Total: 47.5
Line: NE -18.5
Patriots passing game
Tom Brady just absolutely dissected the Steelers pass defense on Sunday night to the tune of 341 yards and three touchdowns. And now he adds Antonio Brown to the mix. Against the Dolphins. Yeah, it’s safe to say Brady sets up well here. The Dolphins were obviously obliterated by the Baltimore passing game last week, as every single receiver was wide open. Lamar Jackson reached 324 passing yards and five touchdowns on just 20 pass attempts last week.
Even though New England are huge road favorites, I highly doubt they score 59 points. Still, Miami allowed an insane 8.8 yards per play in Week 1 and this defense isn’t going to have a shot at defending this New England offense. The only negative that you could draw up for this spot is the fact that the running game and defense could dominate, limiting Brady’s passing attempts and upside. It wouldn’t be surprising, especially when you consider how run-heavy the Patriots are from inside the five-yard line.
Choosing a wide receiver is super interesting. AB will make his debut but Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon are still there. We know Brown is still one of the best wideouts in the game but this New England offense isn’t the easiest to pick up, especially for wide receivers who improvise when running routes. Still, it’s AB against the Dolphins and you may never see him at a $7,000 DK price tag again. I’m interested to see the snaps for New England’s receivers this week because Gordon wasn’t in on all two-wide sets on Sunday night but still played 70 percent of the snaps.
The arrival of Brown makes Gordon more of a FLEX option in PPR formats for the time being but in DFS contests, he’s the cheapest of the New England wideouts, but has the best matchup. He’ll line up against Eric Rowe, who got lit up for six catches, 82 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. And if you watched that Sunday night game, you know that Gordon looks really, really good. Finally, Edelman will remain a high-floor PPR option in all formats, regardless of who joins the Patriots.
Patriots running game
There is plenty of upside in the New England backfield. They are huge favorites and should be ahead, which is the game script we want. Sony Michel remains the lead back, though he was awful last week, carrying the ball 15 times for 14 yards against the Steelers. The Patriots often don’t disguise their play designs when Michel is in the game but regardless, he should be able to find success here against a Miami run defense that was awful last year and just allowed over 100 yards and a pair of scores to Ingram in Week 1. The snap counts were a little alarming for Michel, as he played just 33 percent of the snaps in a game the Patriots won by 30 points.
James White was at 47 percent, while Rex Burkhead played 46 percent of the snaps, while carrying the ball eight times. There is a very good chance he gets another 8-11 touches this week, especially if the game is out of hand late in the third quarter. Burkhead honestly isn’t the worst punt this weekend. And White will see 6-8 targets each week and present you with a high floor in PPR formats each and every week. He’s not as appealing as last year with (potentially) a full season of Gordon and now Brown, but he’s still a fine option.
Dolphins passing game
Big yikes.
Again, we are not going to love the Dolphins very often this year. The team is tanking and veterans reportedly want to be traded immediately. Anyway, Ryan Fitzpatrick will once again start at quarterback and should throw the football 40-50 times, assuming he actually stays in the game. The fantasy production wasn’t good but despite no longer being in that Tampa Bay offense, Fitzpatrick remained aggressive, leading the league in average intended air yards (14.9). Pricing isn’t as friendly in Week 2, making it more viable to play a quarterback under $5,000. That’s about the only case I can make for Fitzpatrick, folks.
Albert Wilson was targeted four times on just five pass routes before leaving with a calf injury. He recovered from a hip injury during the offseason but if he’s healthy, you could make the case for him again given the targets and expected passing volume from Miami. If he can’t play, DeVante Parker will be the unquestioned top receiver, while Preston Williams and Allen Hurns battle it out for number-two duties. Parker is an easy pass, as he’ll see plenty of coverage from Stephon Gilmore, but Williams wouldn’t be the worst punt in DFS contests. He’s $3,400 on DK and would be in line for more playing time after finding the end zone in Week 1.
Tight end Mike Gesicki played 68 percent of the snaps last week and saw the second-highest target total (6) of his career. He also lined up in the slot nearly 67 percent of the time and is still a very athletic tight end. At $2,700, you could do worse at tight end this week if you are looking to save money, though Hockenson is such a better play at $300 more.
Dolphins running game
Kenyan Drake led the Miami backfield in snaps (27) and touches (6) last week, which is definitely nothing to write home about. Kalen Ballage continues to look terrible and I think Drake takes more and more of the work, especially in the passing game. Perhaps he gets a bunch of garbage time dump-offs as the Dolphins are chasing points. He’s a deeper-league FLEX in PPR leagues.
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