Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Total: 46.5
Line: DAL -5
Cowboys passing game
How unstoppable did the Cowboys offense look in Week 1?
In their first game with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, Dallas was firing on all cylinders against the Giants. Dak Prescott had essentially a perfect day, completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards and four touchdowns. He connected with seven different receivers in this game, as Dallas’ offense looked way more creative. They used a lot more play-action, which is something you should be able to do with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield. Prescott attempted 15 play-action passes in Week 1, the second-most among all quarterbacks. And in 2018, he averaged just over eight play-action attempts per contest.
The combination of an elite running game and receivers who create a ton of separation will make this a dangerous play-action offense, boosting Prescott’s value. Dallas played pretty fast and actually went no-huddle 14.5 percent of the time, per Pat Thorman. Between the weapons and more creative offense, Presott has top-seven upside at the quarterback position, and in a matchup against a Redskins defense that surrendered three touchdown passes last week, he remains an easy top-10 option, at the least.
While Amari Cooper is still the alpha in this passing game, Michael Gallup looks incredible. The sophomore created a ton of separation during his rookie year but Prescott wasn’t very accurate when targeting him. That changed on Sunday, as Gallup caught all seven of his targets for 158 yards. There is so much upside here, as Gallup averaged a whopping 5.64 yards per route run last week to go along with 22.6 yards per target. When teams use play-action, it is usually to set up the big pass play and Gallup appears to be that guy.
Washington just allowed DeSean Jackson to torch them for 154 yards and a pair of deep touchdowns. Cooper, meanwhile, didn’t appear to have any issues with that foot, eclipsing 100 yards and finding the end zone. He’ll likely be shadowed by Josh Norman, but I really don’t care. Norman isn’t a shutdown corner anymore and this offense truly looks like it could be unstoppable in 2019. Cooper remains a top-12 fantasy receiver.
Cowboys running game
After ending his holdout in the beginning of last week, Ezekiel Elliott played in Week 1. There were reports that the team could limit him to 20-25 snaps and right away you could tell that wasn’t going to happen. Zeke played 37 snaps, carried the ball 13 times and scored a touchdown. It seemed almost as if Dallas used Elliott as a decoy, as he was in the backfield a lot but they called pass in a lot of those situations, including the aforementioned play-action. With a full week of practice on the horizon, I expect Elliott to get back to that 22-25 touch range against the Redskins. Averaging 3.7 touches per game in the red zone since 2017, look for Zeke to eat and find the end zone here. I’m taking advantage of him being under $9,000 on DraftKings, too.
Redskins passing game
The Washington passing game was a pleasant surprise last week in Philadelphia. Case Keenum and his young receiving corps impressed against the Eagles beatable secondary, posting 380 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Keenum looked good and his young receivers made plays. It is still difficult to have confidence in using Keenum in fantasy, though, as Sunday was likely the best offensive performance we’ll see all year from the Redskins. Dallas played some soft coverage last week but they still have a strong pass rush that can get after these weak tackles from Washington.
A popular waiver wire add, rookie Terry McLaurin dazzled in his debut. He caught five passes for 125 yards and a score, a 69-yard touchdown where he got behind the defense. It could have been a bigger day if Keenum didn’t overthrow a would-be 70-yard score. He looks like the WR1 in this offense and is cheap in daily leagues. I’d strongly consider him if Byron Jones is limited again for the Cowboys. He played just 41 percent of the snaps in his first game since undergoing hip surgery. If he’s back to a normal allotment of snaps, McLaurin takes a hit, as Jones allowed just 0.27 fantasy points per cover snap in 2018, top-10 among all cornerbacks.
Tight end Jordan Reed missed Week 1 with a concussion but he did practice on Wednesday. There is optimism that he returns to the lineup this week and as long he’s good to go, he’s a viable tight end option. You aren’t starting him over waiver wire tight ends like Hockenson or Darren Waller but Dallas was bad against tight ends last year and were just destroyed by Engram in the opening week.
Redskins running game
After being a healthy scratch in Week 1, Adrian Peterson will now be active and start in Week 2. Derrius Guice suffered another knee injury and will miss some time, setting Washington up to roll with Peterson, Chris Thompson and Wendell Smallwood in the backfield. Given the volume he’ll likely see, Peterson isn’t the worst desperation FLEX in standard leagues. If the game stays somewhat close, Peterson has 20-carry potential, as the 34-year old running back was fifth in carries a season ago. He’s only $3,400 on DK, though Thompson appears to be the free square over there, coming in at just $3,900. It was good to see him play 64 percent of the snaps, despite Washington actually being up 17-0 in the first half. Once the team fell behind, Thompson got going, leading the team in targets with 10. When he’s on the field, he’s involved, averaging 5.7 targets per game since 2017, sixth-most among all backs during that span. The Cowboys, meanwhile, surrendered the fifth-most receptions per game to opposing running backs last season (6.3). He’s a cash game staple this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Total: 53
Line: KC -7.5
Chiefs passing game
It may be a new season but Patrick Mahomes is still the most dominant quarterback in the NFL. The reigning MVP threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars on Sunday. Kansas City’s win came at a price, however, as Mahomes suffered a sprained ankle, though he’s practicing and will be fine for this weekend. They also lost Tyreek Hill for 4-6 weeks to a shoulder injury, which could possibly take away from Mahomes’ upside a bit. Per Heath Cummings of CBS Sports, Mahomes averaged 10.8 air yards per attempt when targeting Hill last year, compared to 8.5 to everyone else.
Still, the Chiefs have enough weapons and are in a good spot. Oakland played a bit over their head on Monday night but still profile as a bad defense. In 2018, they pressured the quarterback just 22.5 percent of the time, easily the lowest rate in football. They also allowed a league-high 2.61 points per drive, while also coughing up 12.9 yards per completion, the highest mark in football. Even without Hill, Mahomes is my top quarterback for Week 2.
Sammy Watkins broke the slate last week, recording 198 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He looked really, really good, reaching 21.3 mph on his 68-yard catch and run. He was targeted 11 times and is now the WR1 in arguably the best offense in football. Oakland is a bad on defense, allowed Courtland Sutton to go over 100 yards, while four of his receptions went for 15 yards or more. And now their rookie safety Johnathan Abram will miss the rest of the season. Watkins is a top-12 wide receiver in seasonal formats this week and possibly until Hill returns to the lineup.
There will be an opportunity for rookie Mecole Hardman to make some plays. He failed to catch a pass last week and was only targeted once but still played 78 percent of the snaps. They could use him in similar ways that they use Hill and he’ll have plenty of scoring chances in this offense. I think it is possible that he could be a trap at $4,800 on DK but I also don’t love receivers in that price range like I did in Week 1. Hardman is absolutely worth a look in tournaments and a good stash in season long leagues.
Finally, give me all of the Travis Kelce here. He caught just three passes last week but went for 88 yards. Kelce should have scored, but Mahomes sailed a no-look pass over his head in the corner of the end zone. I think Mahomes makes a concerted effort to get his tight end a touchdown this week. I’m expecting the game’s best tight end to go absolutely nuclear this weekend.
Chiefs running game
People are a lot more confused about the Kansas City run game after the signing of LeSean McCoy. They limited him to just 20 snaps last week but he still touched the ball 11 times, which tells me that this is going to be a two-headed monster. Damien Williams still touched the ball 18 times, including six receptions. He still also appears to be the goal line back, seeing seven red zone touches in Week 1. With Hill sidelined, we could continue to see Williams be a factor in the passing game, but I do wonder what the touches look like if McCoy plays more snaps this weekend, which I’m sure he will. In seasonal leagues, I’m still playing Williams as a low-end RB2 but in DFS, I might just take the savings and play McCoy, who looked good last week, rushing for 81 yards on 10 carries.
Raiders passing game
Because they played in the 10 o’clock Monday night game, Oakland’s prices are just laughably cheap over on DK. As a result, they will likely be the chalk, which is a little concerning considering it is the Raiders. However, the guys that you want to play are the main cogs of what looks to be a concentrated offense. Derek Carr was impressive last week, completing 22 of 26 passes for 259 yards and a touchdown. He was very accurate and took some deep shots, which the Raiders want him to do. Oakland should be playing catch up in this game and the Chiefs defense is legitimately weak. They allowed 2.41 points per drive last year (fifth-most) and the most yards per drive (39.5). And in Week 1 of this year, they let Gardner freaking Minshew complete 88 percent of his passes and throw two touchdowns. Carr is my second-favorite quarterback streamer this week and at $5,100 on DK, I’ll definitely have some exposure.
Now the number-one receiver, Tyrell Williams looked the part on Monday night, torching the Broncos for 105 yards and a touchdown. Don’t forget this is a very talented player who produced like a top-30 fantasy receiver the last time he was in a featured role, catching 69 balls for 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns in 2016 with the Chargers. Keenan Allen played just one game that year. Williams is the clear top target in this passing game, and was responsible for 58 percent of Oakland’s air yards last week. The Chiefs allowed DJ Chark to go off for 146 yards and a touchdown last week, while Chris Conley scored and reached 95 yards. Tyrell is a top-30 wide receiver play this weekend.
Darren Waller is legit. There was hype surrounding the athletic tight end all offseason and it looks warranted. He was targeted early and often on Monday night, ultimately finishing with seven grabs for 70 yards. He lined up out wide 15 times and in the slot seven times, moving all around the formation. Waller is going to remain a huge part of this offense and has the potential to be a top-10 fantasy tight end. Head coach Jon Gruden absolutely loves him. He’ll likely be chalk on DK at $3,300, especially after playing in an island game, but I’m willing to eat it. As for seasonal leagues, I’d play him over guys like Vance McDonald, David Njoku and Greg Olsen.
Raiders running back
I was incredibly impressed with Josh Jacobs in his rookie debut. Sure, his yards per carry wasn’t great, but that had more to do with a bunch of short-yardage carries. He found the end zone twice and touched the ball a whopping 24 times. Jacobs’ eight red zone touches from Week 1 paced all players and the rookie just looked the part, showing great decisiveness and vision. He also avoided nine total tackles in the game and is in line for a massive workload in year one. After seeing his volume and ability in Week 1, Jacobs is now an easy top-15 play most weeks, including this one. He, obviously, is way too cheap at $4,700 and is likely another free square over on DraftKings.
Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos
Total: 40.5
Line: CHI -2.5
Bears passing game
Mitchell Trubisky looked absolutely awful last Thursday night and I have zero confidence in him as a viable fantasy starter at the moment. The Bears called a terrible offensive game last week and Trubisky surely can’t get any worse. But the Broncos present a tough matchup at home. I know Carr just excelled against them last week but I think that was an outlier game. Denver allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers in 2018 (16.11). This game has the lowest implied total of the week, which will limit my exposure to players. Trubisky is a very poor option this weekend.
Allen Robinson had a solid 2019 debut but it should have been epic. He finished with seven catches for 102 yards but Trubisky missed him on multiple occasions, including a play down the sideline that could have gone for 50 yards. Still, you have to feel good about what you saw, as Robinson looked fantastic, getting off press coverage with ease. Robinson saw 13 targets and moved around the formation, lining up in the slot around 45 percent of the time. He’ll see some coverage from Chris Harris Jr. but two years removed from a torn ACL, Robinson looks like an elite receiver. He’s a WR2/3 and a decent GPP option in DFS due to his $6,100 price tag.
I really don’t want to trust any other receiver from this team but Anthony Miller is someone to monitor. Not because I necessarily want to play him but if he’s expected to play more in Week 2, it could change things from the Bears offense. He only played 18 snaps last week and it is likely the Bears limited him after missing the majority of camp with an ankle injury. But because he is traditionally their slot man, Chicago used Tarik Cohen in the slot. 40 of his snaps came from the slot, while just four came in the backfield. If Miller plays more, Cohen likely goes back to his traditional role as the pass-catching back.
Bears running game
If the aforementioned comes true, this could make the Chicago backfield even more of a headache. Despite Cohen lining up in the backfield just four times last week, rookie David Montgomery only carried the ball six times. Everyone knows that Montgomery is clearly the best back on this team but the Bears didn’t commit to him. Veteran Mike Davis played 56 percent of the snaps and operated as Chicago’s third-down back. That role likely returns to Cohen if Miller plays more in the slot but man, this is a headache. The Bears will likely look to run a lot more this week but I don’t see a way you can feel confident starting Montgomery or Davis as more than flex options. Cohen is still viable in PPR formats and if he continues to line up in the slot, he’s a borderline must-play.
Broncos passing game
Denver’s offense got off to a very slow start on Monday night but Joe Flacco got going a bit in the second half. He finished with 268 yards and a touchdown but you are not depending on him as a fantasy starter against the best defense in the league. If Denver’s offensive line had issues blocking Oakland, they should struggle against the Bears elite pass rush.
Is Courtland Sutton the Broncos new number one receiver? It is possible. He led the team with 120 receiving yards and generated four receptions of at least 15 yards or more. Sutton is definitely someone you want to add if you need receiver help and he could have another solid game against Prince Amukamara, who struggled last week. Still, I’d have to be in a pretty deep league to play him. Emmanuel Sanders continues to defy the odds, as his Achilles injury seems fake. He caught five passes for 86 yards and a touchdown on Monday night but again, against a defense that allowed the fewest points per drive in 2018 and is showing no signs of slowing down, Sanders is nothing more than a deep league PPR flex.
Broncos running game
After one week, it looks like the Denver backfield could be a true split. Phillip Lindsay played 53 percent of the snaps, while Royce Freeman was at 47 percent. Lindsay touched the ball 15 times, Freeman touched it 11 times. The latter was more efficient, averaging 5.6 yards per carry but Lindsay is still the 1A, while Freeman is the 1B. Still, neither are preferred options against a Bears defense that allowed 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game in 2018 and just held the Green Bay backfield to 2.2 yards per carry in Week 1. It is safe to say I will not be playing any Broncos this weekend.
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
Total: 52.5
Line: LAR -2.5
Saints passing game
Drew Brees got off to a slow start on Monday night but turned it on in the second half, ultimately finishing with 370 yards and two touchdowns. He goes on the road to face the Rams, a middling matchup but the game environment makes Brees an intriguing fantasy option. It is always worth mentioning Brees’ splits, as his completion rate was four percent lower away from home, while throwing just 11 touchdowns to four interceptions (21:1 TD:INT ratio at home). You always have his home/road splits in the back of your mind but this game should feature plenty of scoring, while it doesn’t appear to be a game where Brees is only forced to throw 27 times. He’s a back-end QB1 for me this weekend.
Well, it looks like Michael Thomas is still really good at football. He caught 10-of-13 targets for 123 yards. Thomas and Brees’ connection is second to none and while Thomas doesn’t have the big play upside as some other elite receivers, he does have one of the highest floors in all of fantasy. He went ballistic in this matchup last season, catching 12 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown. And because he played on Monday night, his daily price is too low at just $8,000. Per usual, Thomas is a top-five WR play this weekend.
Unless I’m stacking this game, I likely won’t to guys like Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith. Both played well on Monday night, with Ginn going over 100 yards and Smith finding the end zone. However, both are just so much better in New Orleans, especially Ginn. Smith played 64 percent of the snaps while Ginn was at 74 percent but neither see the consistent target totals to warrant consideration outside deep leagues or GPPs.
Saints running game
Alvin Kamara is my favorite high-end back of the week. He’s just $8,200 against a Rams defense that just allowed Christian McCaffrey, who is used in a very similar way as Kamara, to eclipse 200 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. He also played 74 percent of the snaps and looked fantastic, avoiding 10 missed tackles between rushes and receptions, while averaging 8.4 yards per touch. The Rams play fast, averaging 26.2 seconds per play in Week 1 (7th-fastest), which should give Kamara plenty of possessions to do what he does. If I’m spending up at running back this week, it will be for him, no doubt. Latavius Murray, meanwhile, only had six carries in his Saints debut but ripped a 30-yard touchdown run. He added two catches on three targets. Because New Orleans won’t give Kamara 25 touches anytime soon, Murray still has standalone value in seasonal leagues but isn’t someone you will really ever play in DFS unless he becomes the lead guy.
Rams passing game
Jared Goff struggled last week in Carolina, which shouldn’t have surprised me as much as it did when you consider his home/road splits. In 2018, Goff averaged 100 more passing yards per game at home, while 68 percent of his passing scores came in Los Angeles. He returns home this week to host a traveling Saints defense on a shorter week. They allowed 270 passing yards and three touchdowns last weekend, while also allowing nearly 12 yards per completion. If he let you down last week, give him one more chance in Week 2, especially over on DraftKings where he is under $6,000.
All three Rams wide receivers are in play every week and unless you are absolutely loaded at wide receiver, you are most likely starting them every week. As always, my favorite is Robert Woods, who after recorded at least five catches for 70 yards in 12 games last year, caught eight passes for 70 yards to open the 2019 campaign. The floor is so high, especially because he gets one or two carries per game off sweeps. New Orleans secondary definitely can be had and they just allowed over 200 yards and three touchdowns to Houston receivers last week.
It was good to see Cooper Kupp back and healthy. The third-year receiver tore his ACL in Week 10 of last season but was progressing well and looked strong in Week 1. You can tell that Goff is comfortable with him, as Kupp saw a healthy 10 targets, including four on the team’s opening drive. He only averaged 6.57 yards per catch, the lowest of his career, but things should open up more as the Rams shake off the rust. Remember, they didn’t play their starters during the preseason. Kupp gets the best matchup of the Rams receivers, as he lined up in the slot 70 percent of the time. That will match him up with P.J. Williams, who allowed three catches for 41 yards and a touchdown last week. As the cheapest of the trio, Kupp is my favorite this week.
Finally, Brandin Cooks faces his former team. He had a poor fantasy outing last week but Goff just missed him on a deep touchdown pass. Again, I think the entire Rams passing game gets back on track at home this weekend and the Saints have allowed the most 20-yard receptions over the last two seasons. All three Rams receivers are top-20 guys this weekend and should all produce.
Rams running game
What the hell do we do with Todd Gurley? He touched the football 15 times last week and played around 70 percent of the snaps and it was no secret that the Rams limited him. Malcolm Brown had 11 carries and two touchdowns, while he had five red zone touches compared to Gurley’s zero. And it wasn’t as if he was just in for a drive and got the lucky short-yardage plunge. The Rams actually forced a turnover inside the Panthers’ 10-yard line and Brown was the first back to enter the game. We knew Gurley was going to see a smaller workload coming in but there was the goal line usage to fall back on.
If Gurley isn’t always going to get the short-yardage work, how do you feel confident using him? I will say, however, that Gurley looked good, especially in the second half. He rushed for 97 yards on 14 carries, while evading seven tackles and posting two breakaway runs. Given the usage, Gurley should best be viewed as an RB2, while it is tough to make the case for him in daily contests.
Brown, meanwhile, is obviously a must-own in all formats and if he continues to see 9-12 touches per game, he’ll have standalone value. He is essentially the Latavius Murray of this offense and Gurley is now the Kamara–damn good, but no longer seeing 25 touches a game. Brown has flex appeal in deeper standard leagues.
