The Awesemo NFL Fantasy Matchups Column with Adam Pfeifer: Game by Game Week 4 Breakdown (FREE)

Week 3 was easily my best week so far. It was a good Kyler Murray second half away from having a few very nice lineups, while we fortunately hit on a handful of calls on Sunday afternoon (Frank Gore, Austin Hooper, Marvin Jones, etc.). Of course, there were still plenty of misses (Kenny Golladay, Phillip Lindsay, Emmanuel Sanders). Week 4 is the first slate with byes, forcing fantasy owners to go to their bench and the waiver wire. Let’s dig into my Week 4 NFL Matchups column with game breakdowns for NFL DFS + Season Long Fantasy Football Lineups

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Don’t have time to read the whole thing? Wanna hit up the gym and study some football? We’ve got you covered. New this week, Adam Pfeifer has turned his matchups column into a podcast. He reads the entire 15,000 word column. Out every Friday at Awesemo.com.


For Thursday’s single game breakdown for the Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers click HERE

NFL DFS Early Slate

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions | Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts | Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans | Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins | Washington Redskins at New York Giants | Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

NFL DFS Late Slate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams | Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Week 4 byes: New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 46

Line: ATL -4.5

Titans passing game

Marcus Mariota might be on a short leash after his dreadful Thursday night showing. Mariota completed just 23-of-40 passes for 304 yards and zero scores while taking nine sacks. He has now been sacked 15.6 percent of the time, despite being pressured 36.4 percent of the time, which is 15th in football. The issue is that Mariota is just holding onto the ball too long, as his average time from snap to throw is sitting at 2.97 seconds, the fourth-longest rate in football. He takes a lot of bad sacks and just hasn’t had a great feel for the pocket.

At least Mariota is running, rushing for 24, 32 and 34 yards during the first three games. But his passing has not been good, ranking 31st in the league in adjusted completion percentage (71.3%). As poor as Mariota has looked, there is a path to him having a solid fantasy outing this week. He is just $5,100 on DraftKings and the Falcons allowed 16 consecutive completions to the Colts to start last week’s game. They are now coughing up a 67.3 percent completion rate (23rd), while ranking just 24th in sack rate (5%). Atlanta has also played at a top-five pace, which should help the slower-paced Titans. I’d struggle to use him as a streamer in season-long leagues but at 5.1K on DraftKings, Mariota isn’t the worst cheap option, especially with the Falcons losing safety Keanu Neal for the season.

The pass-catchers from Tennessee are annoying. Corey Davis is someone I had zero interest in entering the season. He ranked eighth in the league in target share (26.4%) but struggled with efficiency, averaging just 1.64 fantasy points per target, which ranked 67th among all qualified wideouts. Now with the additions of A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries, Davis has now seen his target share drop to an ugly 13.6 percent. The rookie Brown actually leads the receivers in target share at just over 16 percent and is the big-play guy, ranking inside the top 10 in yards after catch per reception (8.57).

However, I don’t know if this is the spot, as the Falcons limit big passing plays with their zone defense, coughing up just six passing plays of 20 yards or more this year, tied for the third-fewest in the NFL. They have also only allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more. Humphries is the most intriguing receiver here, as the Falcons give you the intermediate stuff, which is where Humphries will do his damage, sporting a 7.58 aDOT. It was nice to see him finally get something going last week, finishing with six catches for 93 yards on nine targets. Of course, a lot of that came towards the end of the game in garbage time, but perhaps the Titans get him going to start this game. You could do worse at $4,000 this week.

Of course, the number-one option in this passing game remains tight end Delanie Walker, who is sporting a near 24 percent market share. He is seventh at his position in targets, while averaging a solid 2.00 yards per route run. Walker has a fairly high floor, and ranks fifth among all tight ends in end zone targets. He is a no-brainer top-seven tight end in seasonal leagues and a fine DFS option.

Titans running game

Tennessee continues to rely on Derrick Henry, which isn’t too surprising given the philosophy of this offense. Through three weeks, Henry is averaging a solid 18.3 touches per game while finding the end zone four times. Those touchdowns have helped Henry average a gaudy 0.56 fantasy points per snap, fourth-best among all running backs. Touchdowns are hard to predict, especially when all of Henry’s rushing scores have been result of penalty. But this remains a run-first offense that will put the ball in Henry’s gut as much as they can. Henry has handled 100 percent of Tennessee’s carries from inside the five-yard line so far this season, giving him as much touchdown equity as any back in the league.

Through three weeks of play, 55.5 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Falcons have come on the ground, the fourth-highest rate in football. You don’t love Henry with the Titans as four-point road dogs but Tennessee remained committed to the run down 14 on Thursday night and Atlanta hasn’t looked good enough to be up by 20 points in this game. The volume and goal line work makes Henry a top-15 running back most weeks, but he is almost always a preferred FanDuel option rather than DraftKings.

If you do believe the Titans get torched here, you might want some exposure to Dion Lewis. He played 52 percent of the snaps last week with the Titans chasing points, though the production wasn’t there. Still, this Falcons team has allowed the most receptions to running backs every year of Dan Quinn’s tenure and just allowed five catches to Colts backs a week ago.

Falcons passing game 

Matt Ryan has had some big games so far, reaching the 300-yard mark in all three weeks. He has 928 yards and eight scores so far, although the six interceptions have definitely hurt his ceiling. We’ve seen Atlanta abandon the run quite a bit this season, as they rank sixth in passing play percentage (70.3 percent). That could continue this week if they can’t get the ground game going against a Tennessee defensive line that can stop the run. The Titans have been good against the pass, too, surrendering just 189.7 passing yards per game, the third-lowest mark in football. However, they faced a Colts team that doesn’t pass the ball more than 30 times, the Jaguars on a short week and the inept Cleveland offense in Week 1.

This will easily be the best passing attack they have seen and I still believe that the secondary is where you want to attack this defense. Ryan leads the NFL in end zone throws with 12, while Tennessee is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 85.7 percent of their red zone scoring trips this season, the third-highest rate in football. Ryan remains a top-10 quarterback play and a very viable option on DK because he is under $6,000.

Another week, another Julio Jones touchdown. The star wideout now has two 100-yard outings and four touchdowns through three games in 2019. He has also now scored 12 touchdowns over his last 12 games, so hopefully that “he can’t score touchdowns” narrative has been thrown out the window. Julio now ranks sixth in the NFL in targets (29), first in touchdowns (4) and third in fantasy points per snap (0.48). He’ll likely see a good amount of coverage from Malcolm Butler, who was torched by the Jaguars wideouts last week, and has now surrendered 15 catches for 198 yards and a league-leading three touchdowns in coverage.

The Titans have also allowed an average of 63.3 receiving yards per game to opposing top receivers to go along with two touchdowns. You obviously aren’t benching him and again, Julio is too cheap over on DK.

Although I didn’t expect him to be as bad as he was on Sunday, it didn’t shock me to see Calvin Ridley have a quiet game. The Colts play a lot of zone defense, which limits the big passing plays down the field. In 2018, the Colts allowed the fifth-fewest passing plays of 20 yards or more and currently rank 20th so far in 2019. They are also allowing just 10 yards per completion. That is a big reason why Austin Hooper was so productive.

Anyway, Ridley should bounce back this week, facing a vulnerable Tennessee secondary. Ridley still has plenty of big play potential, especially indoors, where he averages nearly 18 PPR points per game in his career. Ridley still leads the team in aDOT (15.3), while Butler is allowing nearly two yards per cover snap. Meanwhile, Adoree’ Jackson has been very inconsistent so far in his career. Ridley is a high-upside WR3 and a compelling GPP option.

I bet you didn’t know that Mohamed Sanu, the WR3 in this offense, actually leads the team in routes (118), and is 11th in the NFL. Sanu had a solid game in Week 3, catching all six of his targets for 75 yards. But again, it makes sense because the intermediate targets tend to get more looks against the Colts. In deeper leagues, you can find worse FLEX options than Sanu, who has at least four catches in every game, but I’d expect lower numbers this weekend.

Austin Hooper was one of our best calls last week. I said that if I wasn’t paying up at tight end, Hooper would be my guy, and that definitely paid off, as he caught six balls for 66 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Hooper has given you a nice floor before Sunday’s ceiling game, giving him 19 catches on 22 targets for 177 yards and two scores. Because Atlanta is so pass-happy in the red zone, Hooper is tied for the league-lead among tight ends in end zone targets, and I already mentioned how bad the Titans red zone defense has been.

They have also allowed a touchdown to all three starting tight ends they have faced (Ebron, O’Shaughnessy and Njoku), all of which are way less involved in their offense than Hooper is. Keep rolling him out there as a top-seven tight end.

Falcons running game

If Devonta Freeman didn’t get it going, I would have been worried. He looked good, ripping off 28 yards on his first carry. Freeman ultimately finished with 88 yards on 16 carries, as his carries have climbed in each week this year. Backup Ito Smith left this game with a concussion, which led to Freeman playing a whopping 90 percent of the snaps. If Smith can’t suit up this week, the Falcons will activate Qadree Ollison and/or Brian Hill, but Freeman would still dominate the workload.

The matchup against the Titans isn’t ideal, as they have allowed just one rushing touchdown this year and had Leonard Fournette in the negative for the majority of that Thursday night game. They also held Marlon Mack to just 51 yards on 20 carries. Still, you feel better about him after last week and if Smith can’t play, Freeman will flirt with 20 touches, keeping him in the RB2 conversation.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 46.5

Line: BAL -7

Browns passing game

I have been incredibly disappointed in Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland passing attack so far. It is still early and they can make adjustments, but there are plenty of red flags. For starters, Mayfield continues to struggle reading zone defenses, as his average yards per dropback is basically cut in half against zone defense compared to man. Baker is also completing just 66.2 percent of passes when given a clean pocket, which ranks 30th among all signal callers through three weeks. When his first read isn’t there, Mayfield has looked downright awful, which may be why Cleveland ran some more RPOs on Sunday night. He was really good when holding onto the ball for less than 2.5 seconds in that game, completing 13-of-20 passes and a touchdown.

If the Browns continue to run those run/pass options, perhaps that will help Mayfield, but it is still tough to trust him as a fantasy starter. Cleveland’s offensive line has been poor, as Mayfield has been under duress on 44.2 percent of his dropbacks over the last two weeks. Head coach Freddie Kitchens has done an awful job of calling plays through three weeks and reportedly won’t give Todd Monken play-calling duties. Until I see some change, Mayfield will be ranked in that 15 or 16 range.

Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t take a slant 89 yards to the house but was once again the most targeted receiver on the Cleveland offense. Through three weeks with his new team, Beckham is averaging 6.3 receptions on 10 targets per game, giving you a solid floor each week. But Odell’s ceiling will likely be lower than some other elite receiver until the offense figures some things out. Beckham has still seen a market share just over 28 percent and will face a Baltimore secondary that remains beat up, missing the likes of Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young. The Ravens have essentially allowed three different receivers to go for 100 yards against them this season, keeping Odell in the WR1 discussion and an interesting GPP play at just $7,300.

I had very little interest in Jarvis Landry this year for similar reasons why I was off Corey Davis. As the clear top option in the Browns passing attack last year, Landry was eighth in the league with a 26.4 percent target share. However, he also struggled with efficiency, ranking 39th among wideouts in fantasy points per snap (0.22). He was miscast as the WR1, and the Browns used him as more of a deep threat, posting a career-high aDOT (11.29), which was way higher than his 2017 mark (6.28). Now he is back to being the short-yardage slot man, lining up there 78.2 percent of the time. However, he’s struggled so far, catching just 10 passes for 161 yards.

The Ravens have struggled with slot receivers this year, as both Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk both went over 100 yards in Week 2, while Mecole Hardman caught an 83-yard touchdown from the slot last week. Still, it is tough to feel great about him with the way this offense looks. He’s nothing more than a WR3 in PPR formats.

Keep an eye on Rashad Higgins, folks. He has missed the last two games with a knee injury but returned to practice in a limited basis this week. Mayfield has a good rapport with the talented Higgins, who is a very intriguing GPP option this week if active. The Ravens funnel almost all production to the passing game and Higgins would get the best matchup. He’d line up against third-string corner Anthony Averett if Smith and Young aren’t available. Averett has surrendered 16 catches (6th-most) for 269 yards (4th-most) and two touchdowns in coverage so far this season, to go along with 1.78 fantasy points per target.

Browns running game

It was fantastic to see Nick Chubb get more work in the passing game on Sunday night. Kitchens said earlier in the week that he would involve Chubb more in that area, as he had been coming off the field on third downs far too much. Chubb carried the ball 23 times for 96 yards, while adding 35 yards on four receptions. This week’s matchup is brutal but Chubb is so damn involved in this offense, ranking third among running backs in carries (58), 12th in targets (14) and sixth in snaps (59).

His snap rate was at 67 percent through the first two weeks but that number jumped to 99 percent on Sunday night. Now playing on third downs, you feel much better about Chubb, who now ranks fourth in the league in opportunity share (84.9%). Again, the matchup is extremely difficult but Chubb should still be viewed as a mid-range RB1 and because he’s too cheap on DK, I have some tournament interest.

Ravens passing game

After dominating the first two weeks, Lamar Jackson was pretty “meh”, at least as a passer, in Week 3. He completed just 22 of 43 passes for 267 yards but added 46 yards and a rushing score. Jackson missed plenty of throws in this one and was lucky not to have multiple interceptions. Lamar has now rushed for 166 yards and a score over the last two games and is now averaging a gaudy 0.74 fantasy points per dropback. Even with the occasional hiccups as a passer, Jackson has shown that he has weekly top-three upside, while his floor is as high as anyone due to his rushing.

The Browns defense has played pretty well this season, while their pass rush is among the league’s best. However, if Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams both sit out again, the secondary remains extremely questionable, while the absence of veteran linebacker Christian Kirksey wouldn’t be great for middle of the field coverage. He’d also likely be the spy on Jackson. Jackson remains a top-five fantasy option heading into Week 4.

Marquise Brown had just two catches on Sunday but he totaled 49 yards. He was still targeted nine times, while his snaps have gone from 14 to 50 to 61. Brown is being targeted on around 45 percent of his routes this season, while ranking eighth in the NFL in yards per route run (3.24). 41.7 percent of his targets have been on passes 20 yards or more down the field, the eighth-highest rate in football, which presents Brown with GPP-winning upside every week. But it also doesn’t come with questionable volume, as Brown has seen just over 26 percent of the team targets. Hollywood is a weekly WR3 play going forward and is underwhelming Week 3 doesn’t change anything.

Because Jackson targets Brown and the tight ends at such a high rate, it is hard to ever like the secondary receivers. The Browns really struggle to defend the slot, which theoretically sets up nicely for Willie Snead, but what is the upside? Yes, Cooper Kupp just got them for 100 yards and two scores last week, while the linebackers are the weakest part of this defense. But Snead has just nine targets through three weeks and isn’t even all that cheap on DK at $4,400. Would I be surprised if he had a good game? No, but I’ll pass.

Mark Andrews was dealing with a foot injury heading into his game, and Baltimore beat writers reported that he wasn’t 100 percent. He played 53 percent of the snaps, a number that was at 55 percent in Week 2, so the playing time was the same. The Baltimore passing game just  wasn’t on point this week but once again, Jackson looked to his tight ends a lot, as they handled 28 percent of the team targets. Take a look at the tight end involvement since Jackson took over last year.

2018: 30 percent

Week 1: 60 percent

Week 2: 35 percent

Week 3: 28 percent

Andrews will continue to see a ton of targets, while his 2.87 yards per route run rank third among tight ends. Better days are certainly ahead and as long as his minor foot ailment doesn’t keep him from playing, Andrews will be one of the best tight end plays in fantasy.

Ravens running game

Jackson wasn’t great last week but Mark Ingram kept this team in the game, rushing for 103 yards and three touchdowns. He looked great in this one and now has 257 yards on 43 carries (6.0 AVG) and five touchdowns. Jackson’s improvement hasn’t led to a change in offensive philosophy, as the Ravens are still calling run 49.7 percent of the time, the fourth-highest rate in football. Only Justin Jackson is averaging more yards after contact per carry than Ingram (4.30), while he is tied for the league-lead in carries from inside the five-yard line with five.

Only Dalvin Cook is averaging more fantasy points per snap (0.57), despite Ingram seeing a stacked box on 30.2 percent of his carries, the fifth-highest rate in the league. While you don’t love seeing Gus Edwards take nine touches, you also have to wonder if that was due to Baltimore chasing points. Ingram has yet to see 20 carries in a game yet but he appears to be locked into 16-18 each week. The Browns are a middle-of-the-road matchup for running backs, keeping Ingram as a mid-range RB2 in fantasy.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

Total: 42.5

Line: NE -7

Patriots passing game

Father Time keeps firing haymakers at Tom Brady but the Hall of Fame quarterback just won’t go down. Through three weeks in 2019, Brady has completed 68 percent of his passes for 911 yards and seven touchdowns, while sporting a career-high 8.6 yards per attempt, which is insane for a 42-year old signal caller. Brady has been surgical so far this season but now he will face his toughest test yet, traveling to Buffalo to take on arguably the league’s top pass defense.

No team allowed a lower yards per completion in 2018 and through three weeks in 2019, the Bills are allowing just 8.6 yards per completion, the third-lowest mark in the league. They are also coughing up the seventh-lowest completion rate in the NFL so far at 60.6 percent. Brady has definitely owned the Bills but a lot of that was alongside tight end Rob Gronkowski, for what it is worth. Stil, with quarterback injuries and duds, Brady remains a back-end QB1 for this tough matchup, though I likely won’t use him as one of the highest-priced passers in daily formats.

Julian Edelman caught seven passes for 62 yards and a touchdown last week before suffering a rib injury. The ailment appears to be minor, as his X-rays came back negative. If the Patriots weren’t dominating the Jets on Sunday, perhaps Edelman would have returned but there was simply no need. Assuming he is good to go, Edelman will easily be the top Patriots receiver from this game, as he’ll continue to line up in the slot 69 percent of the time, keeping him away from Tre’Davious White.

We have seen slot receivers heavily involved against the Bills. In Week 1, Jamison Crowder caught 11 passes for 77 yards from the slot, while Tyler Boyd went for 6-67 last week. If Buffalo can slow down the Patriots inefficient running game, this offense could run through Edelman this weekend. I like him as a borderline top-12 wide receiver this weekend.

Josh Gordon will now be a much more trustworthy fantasy option with Antonio Brown out of the equation. Gordon caught six passes for 83 yards on Sunday, though he should have scored a touchdown, as the ball popped out of his hands at the last second. The 11 targets were great to see and it’ll be interesting to see what happens in this matchup. Buffalo hasn’t used White to shadow yet this season, though they have faced the Jets, Giants (without Shepard) and Bengals, who use Boyd in the slot 70 percent of the time.

It is entirely possible that White shadows Gordon in this game, which doesn’t suddenly make him a sit, but definitely limits the upside, as White is top-20 in fantasy points per target allowed. His average target distance is just 4.2 yards, the fifth-best in football. Of course, Gordon is a freak and is sixth in average target separation. If White doesn’t shadow Gordon, he will line up against Phillip Dorsett for the majority of the game, as Dorsett lines up as the right receiver nearly 40 percent of the time. Gordon would see more of Levi Wallace, who has allowed 17 catches for 143 yards and a score so far this season. Gordon is a WR3 and Dorsett a PPR FLEX option but I’d temper expectations against a Bills defense that limits big passing plays.

Patriots running game

While there is always some skepticism around a New England running back for fantasy football, it is tough to feel great about Sony Michel right now. The Patriots were well ahead in the first two games of the season, which led to a healthy 36 carries. However, with the same positive game script on Sunday, Michel carried the ball just nine times. The inefficiencies have been an issue, as Michel is averaging a disgusting 2.4 yards per touch, which ranks 55th in the NFL. New England’s average point differential is +14.33, easily the best in football, yet Michel is 50th in fantasy points per game (7.0).

Perhaps the Patriots are looking to get away from him, as he played just 17 snaps on Sunday, while Rex Burkhead played a whopping 56, with 49 of them coming in the backfield. Both found the end zone but Burkhead looked much better and I wonder if Michel starts to split work with the veteran, on top of the 7-12 touches James White will get, who missed Sunday’s game to be with his wife.

So who do you play?

If you are going to attack Buffalo, you can do it on the ground. They have allowed three running back touchdowns this season, but two of them came via the passing game. That favors White, who also benefits from AB’s departure. I think he has a very good game here, as Buffalo’s linebackers are much improved in coverage but still vulnerable. The Bills just allowed two catches for 34 yards and a score to Joe Mixon last week and White is just $4,900 on DK. Meanwhile, Michel and Burkhead are both flex options, but with just one goal line carry through three weeks, there is no guarantee that the former gets the touchdowns.

Bills passing game

Josh Allen had himself another high-floor fantasy outing on Sunday, scoring 19.3 points. He got off to a strong start but the Buffalo offense stalled for much of the second half. Still, Allen passed for 243 yards and a score, while adding 46 yards on the ground. Over his last line games, Allen is averaging nine rushes and 58 yards per game, while scoring six rushing touchdowns during that span. Again, the additions to the Buffalo offensive line has helped, as Allen has been under pressure about four percent less often this year than in 2018. And the upgrades at receiver have given him more of a passing ceiling, as he’s been over 240 passing yards in all three games. He only reached that mark once all of last season.

This matchup isn’t great, as the Patriots have yet to allow an offensive touchdown this season, surrendering fewer than 0.15 points per drive. They are also coughing up just 8.5 yards per completion, the third-best mark in football. Allen should continue to run, giving him a very solid floor. However, I don’t love this matchup, placing him as my QB15 on the week. I will say, however, that Allen is still to cheap on DK at just $5,600.

I did not expect John Brown to have such a solid floor with the Bills. He is coming off his worst game of the year on Sunday, hauling in four of five targets for 51 yards. If that is going to be his worst game, Brown should be in line for a very nice season. Through three weeks, Brown has seen 24 percent of the Bills targets but this is arguably the toughest matchup in football. We know New England takes away your best offensive weapon, which is Brown.

Stephen Gilmore has shadowed guys like Robby Anderson and Preston Williams on 55 and 93 percent of their routes, so I’d imagine Brown sees Gilmore for the majority of this game. Gilmore is arguably the best corner in the NFL, coughing up 1.40 fantasy points per target last year (12th) and 1.10 points per target this year (11th). I would avoid Brown in DFS and use him as nothing more than a low-end FLEX in this brutal spot.

Cole Beasley is quietly on pace for 91 catches in his first year with the Bills, coming off an eight-catch, 10-target outing. Perhaps the targets funnel to him again here, though there is very little upside, as Beasley is sporting the 10th-lowest aDOT in football (6.32). In deep full PPR leagues, you could do worse than Beasley, who is tied with Brown for the team lead in targets. But you should never expect a big game.

Could the Bills have something at tight end? Rookie Dawson Knox was explosive on Sunday, catching three balls for 67 yards and a score, including a 49-yard catch and run where he ran over two defenders. He played 45 snaps and could be worth a look as a punt tight end ($2,900) if Tyler Kroft doesn’t return this week.

Bills running game

If you played Frank Gore as a cash play or RB3, you felt good. The veteran carried the football 14 times for 76 yards and a touchdown against the awful Bengals defense, though it was slightly annoying to see T.J. Yeldon touch the football 10 times. Rookie Devin Singletary missed practice all of last week with that hamstring injury and if he sits again, Gore will stay on the RB3 radar, though I won’t be nearly as excited. 85 percent of the appeal to Gore last week was due to the stellar matchup. This isn’t the same thing and it is possible that Buffalo is chasing points for the first time this season.

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