NFL Prime Time – Week 4 Monday Night Football (FREE)

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos +4.0 / 54.5

We have a potential barn-burner on tap with the highest projected point total of the week and some intriguing strategy.  Week 4 has been fun with three of the top five projected game totals on the single game slates, which is MUCH MORE FUN than trying to box the limited touchdowns that we have seen in more than half of the single game action thus far.

Let’s see what we can find!

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Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback – Patrick Mahomes II is a true WIZARD and clocking in on most projection systems as the top quarterback, but he is only on the slim or extended slates.  Looking at his game logs will get anyone in a DFS mood as he is averaging a tick shy of 300 passing yards per game and essentially an unprecedented 13 touchdowns through the first three tilts.

The Broncos rushing defense has been pretty damn elite, but it seems that Mahomes is in hard core DGAF mode and looking down the field on nearly every attempt and is currently third in the league for yards per attempt at 9.63, behind only Fitzmagic (seemingly a Wizard, but is he a true WIZARD? I do not believe that J.K. Rowling plays DFS so the jury may be out for now) 11.08 and Jared Goff 10.49 who has been much like The Wizard himself.

Running Back – Kareem Hunt is a fringe RB10, however our fear is that he is NOT GETTING ANY looks so far in the passing game from his rocket-armed quarterback with just one lonely target in each of the first three games. Last year for most of the season he saw around three from Alex Smith but we can most definitely worry until we see a change in 2018.  On the season the Orange Crush rushing defense has been a top five unit by most metrics, so this is a buyer beware situation.

Wide Receiver – Sammy Watkins is the guy I am looking at in all formats that offer the MNF game as he seems to be a MAJOR part of the KC offense with 20 targets (Kelce 26, Hill 20) and a rushing tote in Week 2 for 31 yards along with a pair in Week 3 for 20 yards. Enjoy!

Tyreke Hill is an amazing talent for sure, who also saw a pair of rushing attempts in Week 1 and Week 3, though they culminated in just NINE total yards.  We do appreciate the effort and are hoping for some gadget plays on Monday Night Football.  He has seen just 19 receiving targets albeit for a robust 14/310/3 line which is a concern when we realize that is just shy of 30% of all passing attempts from Mahomes and we will be worried about the volume of opportunities for this VERY DYNAMIC player.

Yes, Hill is in the mix as a returner, but De’Anthony Thomas has all three of the kickoff returns this season, with Hill owning  all four of the KC punt returns for 100 yards – YMMV.  There have only been 18 receptions to receivers other than Hill, Kelce and Watkins so at least things have been concentrated as we look to our Monday Night Football single game options.

Tight End – Travis Kelce has seen a wildly high 26 targets for his position and he has rolled to a nice 16/229/2 line and is facing a team that has allowed the second most PPR-fantasy production since the beginning of last season to opposing tight ends. On the year, the Broncos have been in the bottom third against TEs and Seattle, Oakland and Baltimore as their opposition do not have anyone near the talent level of Kelce.

Defense/Special Teams – we are reaching here and hoping for a return touchdown as while the Broncos have been intercepted five times, they have also allowed five sacks.  The upside here is the hope that this plays out as a MEGA passing game with many opportunities for sacks and turnovers.

 

Denver Broncos

Quarterback – Case Keenum has underwhelmed after a decent Week 1 fantasy outing with 329 passing yards, three touchdowns and sadly three interceptions at home against the Seahawks.  Interceptions have been about all he has had going for a combined 41 for 69 59.4% for 414 yards and two picks vs Oakland and then last week in Baltimore.  Week 2 against Oakland was somewhat salvaged with his season rushing totals coming in that game with 3 carries for 16 yards and a score.

For a positive, gamers are not going to want to click on his name, but we must note that Kansas City has the 30th passing defense according to DVOA courtesy of Football Outsiders and the Chiefs are allowing a league WORST 362.7 passing yards per game with just one interception and a mediocre six sacks against the opposition.

Week 1 – Philip (one L) Rivers 34 for 51 and a whopping 424/3/1 which was his SIXTH best single game yardage total

Week 2 – Ben Roethilsberger 39 for 60 and 452/3/0 – which was his FIFTH highest career single game mark

Week 3 – Jimmy (RIP my Best Ball and Season Long Leagues) Garoppolo 20 for 30 and 251/2/0

So what can we take from this?  Well one single solitary interception over 141 pass attempts, six sacks and phenomenal performances from the opposing signal-callers.  Through 43 games played, Keenum has five games over 300 yards passing and I would be SHOCKED if he doesn’t get 300 on Monday Night Football with a great chance of setting a career best at home (for the record his five best games are 369, 350, 329, 321 and 304 with 16 TDs and 6 INTs in those contests.

All and all, short of a catastrophe, we have to believe that Case Keenum can flirt with a career best game and while it all comes down to the TDs, we should see him realistically approach the 300 yard plateau.

Running Back – Royce Freeman, Phillip Lindsay and afterthought Devontae Booker make things quite the mess for the Denver RB options but and it is a BIG BUT (not a BIG BUTT, which Bell, Biv and Devoe have encouraged us NOT TO TRUST for the last 28 years – damn YOU ALL ARE TOO YOUNG to understand these epic words of wisdom!)

Okay now let’s take a look at our options here and consider that the Chiefs have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs through three weeks (ARZ 35.42, KC 34.3 and DET 29.5 are the top three).

Phillip (two Ls, three if you count his last name) Lindsay has seen 2, 1 and 2 targets in reverse chronological order and he should thank his lucky stars that he was not suspended after being ejected against the Ravens for throwing punches “trying to get the football out” in a scrum last week against Baltimore). The undrafted rookie was in on 16%, 42% and 35% of the snaps – again most recent game first – over the last three weeks.  He is the true wild card as I believe that third-year man Devontae Booker is the more trusted pass protection option what should be a shootout game.

Royce Freeman is the other rookie and if Denver can get a touch of positive game flow in their favor, they will be best served to attempt (likely in a futile effort) to control the clock as best they can.  While he has seen the most snaps among this trio, it is not a safe play as he has seen 1, 1 and NO targets through three games and will need to get some goal line love in order to be a viable DFS option.

Wide Receiver – Emmanuel Sanders is officially the lead option for the Broncos as it is clear that ninth year man Demaryius Thomas is not as explosive as he was just a couple seasons ago.  Rookie Cortland Sutton is intriguing on both FanDuel and DraftKings for the price savings and potential big play upside.  There is not much else to say other than 60% of Denver’s targets have gone to this trio which doesn’t leave much one the table for the tight ends.

Tight Ends – Jake Butt 13 targets and Jeff Heuerman 8 targets have not seen much work, however, Butt has been placed on the injured reserve with an ACL injury.  Heuerman can be looked at on DraftKings for his discounted salary, but we are really just touchdown hunting here.

Defense/Special Teams – Patrick Mahomes has been sacked just four times and has yet to throw an interception, so it is hard to recommend the Orange Crush.

 

Summary After the Sunday Night Football game did not have nearly the fireworks we were expecting, we can rest assured that Monday’s game will not disappoint.

 

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. Patrick Mahomes (how can he not be considered the top option – just know he could crest to 75-80% in popularity)
  2. Case Keenum (the Chiefs do not have a great defense and their offense is so good the opposition is forced to abandon the run early to try and keep up)
  3. Emmanuel Sanders (the clear lead option in the Denver offense, but the other teams know this as well)
  4. Travis Kelce (leads the team in targets and is not as boom/bust as Tyreek Hill)
  5. Sammy Watkins (ideally a less flashy option who could potential be passed over – well as much as one can be in a single game contest, but here is one spot I am willing to make a stand)
  6. Tyreek Hill (it is all about the big play, but we know he has multi-TD upside)
  7. Kareem Hunt (the three targets this season are concerning, of course most will be thinking the same thing and this will suppress the popularity of Hunt)
  8. Denver Running Backs (close your eyes and pick one)
  9. Cortland Sutton (salary saver)
  10. Demaryius Thomas (still getting the volume)
  11. Kickers (DraftKings only – a tossup between a high volume offense and home field familiarity)
  12. Jeff Heuerman (should be on the field for 80% of the snaps with Jake Butt out of the picture)
  13. Chris Conley (wild card option, but he has been on the field for 62-64% of the snaps each of the first three games – with 3, 2 and 1 targets)
  14. Kansas City D/ST (Keenum will screw something up)
  15. Denver D/ST (we are hoping for a special teams score)
  16. KC Grab Bag (Demarcus Robinson, Spencer Ware, Demetrius Harris, De’Anthony Thomas, Anthony Sherman, Andy Reid)

Reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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