NFL Prime Time – Week 6 Sunday Night Football (FREE)

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots -3.5 / 59.5

There is a very good chance that this game will surpass the 60 projected point plateau which is just insane!  Regardless, the Fantasy Juggalos should be out in force and we have a festival of options to choose from in this matchup.

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Kansas City Chiefs 28.0 implied team total

Quarterback – Patrick Mahomes II is making his second start in a prime time game already this season after facing the Broncos in Denver on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and after Sunday Night Football in New England this week, they still have FOUR more prime time games (next Sunday against the Bengals, Week 11 on Monday Night Football against the Rams in Mexico City, Week 15 on Thursday Night Football against the Chargers and then in Week 16 in Seattle against the Seahawks).

Back to this Sunday, we know that the Patriots passing defense has typically been substandard and this season is no different.  They have the #21 DVOA according to Football Outsiders and they are allowing 343.0 yards per game, second to only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and this duo are the only defenses allowing 300+ yards per game in the new pass happy NFL.

The Wizard aka Mahomes has surpassed the 300 passing yard milestone in every game since Week 1 and he checks in as the top projected quarterback in most systems on the full slate.  There really isn’t much else to say.

Running Back – Kareem Hunt had four targets in Week 4, however, he has just four targets in the other four games combined.  The Patriots rushing defense is middle-of-the-pack as is their fantasy production allowed to opposing running backs.  Hunt does get the red zone love leading the non-Mahomes crew with 15 opportunities and Travis Kelce has the second most all the way back with seven.  Hunt has five touchdowns on the season and has at least one in every game since the season opener.

We do not have to worry about Spencer Ware who has been on the field for just shy of 20% of the snaps this season and that is well behind Hunt who sits at 66.1%.

Wide Receiver – Tyreek Hill very well could be stymied by the Bill Belichick bend-don’t-break defense and even though he has been on the field for 90% of the plays over the last four weeks, he has not found the end zone since Week 2 and currently sits at 7 carries for 37 yards, with 39 targets for 27/425/3 receiving and 6 kickoff returns for 139 yards and a score.

This means we will want to look at the other options for a little bit of differentiation, even though Sammy Watkins (80%+ of the snaps other than Week 4 when he suffered a hamstring injury and 29 targets) and Chris Conley (62% of the snaps, outside of a boost in Week 4, 17 targets).  The remaining receiving corps has compiled only a dozen targets.

Tight End – Travis Kelce has been outstanding this season coming in behind only Zach Ertz with 46 targets on the season which is #14 overall in the NFL.  He is on pace for a phenomenal 90/1300/10 season and he has at least 100 yards or a touchdown in every game except Week 1.  He warrants consideration as the Captain/MVP in a week when there are a plethora of options for that designation.

While it is not an advanced metric, it is nice to see that the Patriots are allowing the tenth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season (Jordan Thomas, Niles Paul, ASJ, Luke Willson and Eric Ebron are not exactly a group to fear).

Defense/Special Teams – keep in mind that we only lose a maximum of Negative-4 points for points allowed on DraftKings, however, New England has only allowed six sacks this season and none over their last two games.  The six interceptions by Tom Brady are a touch concerning, but as I said in this space the last time the Patriots were on prime time, let’s cut him some slack as he is 41 years-old after all.  Do remember thought that with Tyreek Hill returning kickoffs and the dynamic De’Anthony Thomas returning punts.

 

New England Patriots 31.5 implied team total

Quarterback – Tom Brady is checking in as a top three projected quarterback on the full-slate and he is definitely in play in all formats and contests.  With his proclivity to spread the ball around and take what the defenses give him, it will not be easy to pair him with any “obvious” option and that makes the single game contests much, Much, MUCH more interesting!

Running Back – James White has been a touch more involved in the regular season running game that he typically has been with injuries to Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill both lost for the season with injuries.  This keeps him relevant in the red zone where the Patriots are not afraid to use short passes to score.  He has been outstanding in full-PPR leagues leading the team with 44 targets on his way to 32/270/4 with 9 targets, 60 yards and all four of his receiving touchdowns coming in the red zone along with five carries in the red zone for good measure.

Sony Michel has seen his role ramp up, particularly in the ground game with the various injuries that have beset the New England backfield.  He has a dozen red zone rushing attempts OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS with an even six in each game.  While he has seen just one target in the last two weeks, he has toted the rock 42 times for 210 yards and a pair of scores in that same span.  He is a fine option against Kansas City who has been solid, but by no means spectacular against the run and generally they are focused on their pass defense.  This duo has combined for 31 of the 48 red zone opportunities and they can be played together without fear of one capping the others opportunities.

Wide Receiver – Julian Edelman was back and effective with nine targets for 7/57/0 and we can once again consider him on the full-PPR sites.  After that it gets tricky, because we know that Tom Terrific will go to the open man and not really play favorites, which mostly leaves us with a preferred pecking order of Josh Gordon (keep in mind he has a low snap count), Chris Hogan (did not do much at all with the opportunity created by the Julian Edelman absence), Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Keep in mind that Cordarrelle Patterson shares kick return duties with Sony Michel and Julian Edelman had a pair of punt returns in his post suspension/injury debut.

Tight End – Rob Gronkowski has not had a GRONK SMASH game yet this season, but it will happen at some point.  Kansas City is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in both half and full-PPR formats with only one touchdown but an average of 6.6 receptions for 90.6 yards per game.  Only Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh have ceded more fantasy goodness.

Defense/Special Teams – surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes has been sacked more than once in only one game this season and last week he suffered his first two interceptions.  We are hoping for a return touchdown here and it is hard to consider the Patriots when there are so many other potential players that have better upside.  They are appropriately priced as a punt at $2,200 on DraftKings and that is their “true” value in giving us some salary cap flexibility.

 

Summary – we have sooooooooo much potential fantasy goodness, that it is hard to even categorize it in a coherent manner!

 

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

  1. James White (this is a fantastic matchup to have in the single game format and with so many options, we can expect the popularity for the Captain/MVP to be dispersed more than what we typically experience – White is my focus on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring and 1.5 salary cap hit – on FanDuel it is the next guy…)
  2. Tom Brady (I am giving him the nod over Patrick Mahomes since he is at home and used to playing at night and the Chiefs allowing three 400+ passing yard efforts so far on the season is incredibly tough to ignore – Week 4 vs Blake Bortles 430, Week 2 at Ben Roethlisberger 452 and Week 1 at Philip Rivers 424)
  3. Patrick Mahomes (this is a fantastic slate to drop down in buy-in and do some mixing and matching as I do not want to be left on the outside looking in as The Wizard is working his magic!)
  4. Travis Kelce (the most steady option and the full-PPR on DraftKings is a perfect format for him in this matchup)
  5. Rob Gronkowski (multi-touchdown upside anytime he takes the field, still though he shares opportunities with so many others, he lands all the way at fifth for me taking into account price as well – he does have Captain/MVP merit if you are doing some multi-entry madness)
  6. Sammy Watkins (burned me in Week 4 when he missed most of the game with a hamstring injury, I am going back to the well and like him as a differentiation play and at a palatable price point – DraftKings preferred, though he is a fine differentiation play on FanDuel as I think most gamers will be reticent to pay this week’s price)
  7. Kareem Hunt (while not as dynamic as teammate Tyreek Hill the salary discount and still well above average ability to score from distance keep him above The Freak, the lack of targets are still a concern, but this is shaping up to be a Kitchen Sink game for Kansas City so any new wrinkle or trend they can go against should be explored by Coach Andy Reid)
  8. Julian Edelman (preferred on DraftKings as there is still a risk of lower touchdown equity for damn near everyone on the Patriots with their embarrassment of options)
  9. Sony Michel (loving the lack of backfield competition, not loving the lack of pass targets)
  10. Tyreek Hill (still cracks the top ten and his boom/bust potential very well could leave me with a single solitary tear rolling down my cheek for not naming him earlier on the sheet)
  11. Chris Hogan (soooooo disappointing on the season, but again he is a “trusted” Tom Brady receiver in a high scoring game and he is on the field for 90% of the snaps – likely to be passed over by the “what have you done for me lately” crowd)
  12. Stephen Gostkowski (no stranger to kicking under the prime time lights in Foxboro)
  13. Josh Gordon (back to back weeks with 18 snaps, he did have four targets last weekend, catching two for 50 yards and his first Patriots touchdown)
  14. Harrison Butker (perfect on his field goals and extra points so far)
  15. New England D/ST (we need some salary savings somewhere and remember, on DraftKings the most fantasy points this position can lose for points against is negative four)
  16. Chris Conley (he is generally on the field for 60%+ of the snaps and has 11 targets over the last two weeks)
  17. Cordarrelle Patterson (dynamic, but few opportunities sharing kickoff returns with Sony Michel and all of the Patriots wide receivers healthy)
  18. Kansas City D/ST (Brady generally doesn’t get sacked, but he has thrown nearly as many picks already this season as he had for all of last year – we need a Pick-6 from Brady or a Tyreek return)
  19. Phillip Dorsett (meh, but salary saver on DraftKings)
  20. Spencer Ware (a lucky goal line carry or an in-game injury to Kareem Hunt are his only paths to relevance – he has played in all five games for 65 snaps, 8/42/0 on the ground and 5 targets for 4/40/0 receiving)
  21. Demetrius Harris (DraftKings discount, he is the backup tight end with just 8 targets over the last three games)
  22. De’Anthony Thomas and Demarcus Robinson (have combined for 11 targets and each is on the field about 10-12% of the time – buying a lottery ticket has a better payoff)

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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