Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots | Week 1

The Patriots host the Dolphins in a Week 1 AFC East battle. Cam Newton takes over under center for New England as Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterbacks Miami (at least to start the season). For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Lets get into Dolphins – Patriots.

CLICK BACK to the main fantasy football matchups breakdown main page for the rest of the game-by-game analysis.

 


**50% OFF Awesemo+ NFL WEEKLY**

The Fantasy Football season kicks off in full on Sunday, and we’re offering you 50% off the Awesemo+ NFL Weekly Pass by 50% when you use promo code REDZONE. The Weekly Pass gets you access to Awesemo’s leading fantasy points and ownership projections, lineup builder and top stacks tool. Use promo code REDZONE before time runs out on Tuesday, 9/15/20.


For a full list of all our NFL DFS and fantasy football content this season, check out the NFL content schedule.

And don’t forget to join Matt Savoca and Dave Loughran, every Thursday morning at 11 ET on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

Dolphins (18.5) at Patriots (24.5) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 1:00 p.m.

New England Patriots Fantasy Football and NFL DFS Breakdown

It’s the beginning of a new era in Foxborough, as Newton steps into the driver’s seat of an offense that on first glance seems light on play makers. It would be utterly shocking if Bill Billlechick, alongside offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, didn’t tailor a brand new offense around Newton and his strengths. That means more quarterback rushes than we’ve seen in a long, long time in New England. Julian Edelman, the constant drumbeat of Tom Brady’s passing attack, will absolutely still get his looks, but don’t expect the consistency of previous seasons. It’s possible the Dolphins, with strength in the secondary, will prioritize limiting Edelman, and force Newton to beat them another way.

The depth behind Edelman is a massive question mark. Mohamed Sanu, traded to the Patriots at the deadline from Atlanta last season, commanded seven targets in a game only twice before getting released in final roster cuts, apparently outplayed by Damiere Byrd. The team absolutely needs more in 2020 from second-year receiver N’Keal Harry, who was the subject of both glowing and glaring recent training camp reports, all of which will be instantly forgotten if he produces on Sunday.

The New England backfield should once again be a major source of offensive production but might be one of the toughest skill position groups to predict week-to-week. The most likely scenario involves 7-10 opportunities for each of James White (most receptions) and Sony Michel (most carries), with Rex Burkhead spelling both backs. Damien Harris (finger) will eventually muddy things even further, but is likely out this week. Ultimately, Newton should operate as the primary goal line back.

Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football and NFL DFS Breakdown

For Miami, Ryan Fitzpatrick enters his age-38 season ready to sling it until the wheels fall off. The Dolphins were fourth in team pass attempts per game in 2019, and this year should be no different. Wideout DeVante Parker, who finally flashed the potential that made him a first-round pick, missed several practices in a row leading up to Week 1, though the Dolphins say he should be good to go.

With Jakeem Grant banged up as well, Preston Williams, who appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season when he tore his ACL Week 9, seems like the healthiest wideout on the roster. Williams averaged just under eight targets a game prior to his injury, and with reigning defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore likely to begin the game guarding Parker, it’s Williams who has the largest guaranteed role in the Dolphins passing attack. Mike Gesicki, who averaged nearly six targets a game a season ago, should see a similar workload to begin 2020 as well. Jordan Howard and Matt Breida should split duties fairly evenly, with Breida, who recorded the single fastest speed of any ball carrier a year ago (22.3 mph), operating on passing downs and two-minute situations.

Beyond the aforementioned Gilmore, the Patriots will look completely different on defense, with massive turnover in free agency and a league-high number of opt-outs due to COVID-19, including two starters in Patrick Chung and Dont’a Hightower. They’ll be relying on youth (and coaching) to make up for what, on paper, appears to be a huge talent drain from a year ago, particularly to the front seven. If any coach is equipped for that challenge, it’s Belichick, but Fitzpatrick should still absolutely take his shots, making Williams, Parker and Gesicki decent high-upside options in fantasy football this week.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 21

Alternative Scenario: Fitzpatrick hits on a few bombs early, making the Patriots play catch up ball. Ultimately, the Patriots prevail with a stellar second half. Patriots 33, Dolphins 30.

CLICK HERE FOR THE NEXT GAME


Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE. Don’t forget to check out the loads of free content on our Fantasy Football home page, including more fantasy football breakouts. Sign up for just $29.95 (includes a $35 credit at FFPC for new users). Sign up HERE!

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.