On the menu for Sunday is a huge 13-game slate. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS leverage plays for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This includes a key Drake London DFS play with insane value.
Week 17 NFL DFS Leverage Plays and NFL DFS Optimizer
Aaron Jones
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 30th, FanDuel: 92nd
After getting his ankle rolled up on to start the second half last week, Jones only finished with 5.4 on DraftKings while logging a season-low 38% of the snaps. The injury isn’t believed to be serious, and Jones was able to get a limited practice in Wednesday. The back should be a full-go for this Sunday’s crucial tilt vs. the Vikings – which is a must-win if the Packers want to keep their playoff hopes alive – and is expected to come with low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections after last week’s debacle.
This season, Jones is averaging 12.5 carries per game – which is 52% of the Packer’s running back carries – while logging 59% of the snaps. Notably, the 28-year-old is leading Green Bay with 28 redzone attempts and has run a route on 60% of his team’s dropbacks, while gaining a target on 22% of those routes, including nine redzone targets. Overall, Jones’ compelling combination of work as a rusher and a receiver has him ranking 11th in DraftKings points per snap among running backs this season (0.42).
This Sunday’s matchup with the Vikings carries the second highest total on the slate (48 points) and the Packers are 3.5-point home favorites. For the five occasions Jones has competed as a favorite at Lambeau field this season, the back has been outstanding, producing 19.1 DraftKings points per game.
D.J. Chark Jr.
Stokastic NFL DFS Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 21st, FanDuel: 21st
Hosting the Bears, the Lions boast the second highest implied team total on the slate (29 points) and are arguably the best offense to attack this week. Chark is underpriced for his role as the team’s No.2 pass catcher and is an affordable, low-owned way to gain a share of their massive team total. In his nine games this season, Chark has obtained a target on 15% of his routes, while running a route on 82% of his team’s dropbacks. Specifically, Chark has been Jared Goff’s primary deep target this season. Despite missing six games, Chark leads the Lions with 14 targets over 20 yards and ranks fourth in the league in aDOT (16.8).
This Chicago defense Detroit is facing is the worst graded defense on PFF and they are allowing the second most yards per pass (7.5). In addition to the perfect matchup, the Lions will be at home, which is a massive deal for the passing game. On his home turf this season, Goff has been extremely efficient, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt and throwing 20 touchdowns to only three interceptions. Unsurprisingly, this has translated into success for Chark, with him recording at least 14 DraftKings points in three of his five home starts this season. Stacking Goff with Chark or double stacking Goff with both Chark and Amon-Ra St. Brown is a great strategy for GPPs this weekend.
Drake London
Stokastic NFL DFS Leverage Plays and Score Ranks: DraftKings: 74th, FanDuel: 71st
Drake London is far too cheap for his current role. With Desmond Ridder at quarterback the last two games, London has been targeted on a mouthwatering 33% of his routes, including one redzone target and one target over 20 yards. Ridder has connected with London on 70% of these targets, resulting in 14.3 DraftKings points per game for the wideout during this stretch. For this Sunday, the Falcons are facing a Cardinals’ defense that is the ninth worst graded unit on PFF and sport a healthy implied team total of 22.75 points.
With the massive volume, Drake London should easily outperform his current salaries in this plus spot and Stokastic’s NFL DFS optimizer is only projecting him to be around 10% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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