Week 8 Sunday Night Football features the two-time reigning NFL MVP and a challenger ready to take the title belt. Let’s take a look at our best Packers – Bills DFS picks for SNF including key plays in Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen.
Heading into NFL Week 8 Sunday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 8 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Green Bay Packers at the Buffalo Bills.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 8 Sunday Night Football – Packers-Bills
Green Bay will be without WR Allen Lazard (shoulder) and CB Shemar Jean-Charles. There are a passel of players carrying questionable tags, though most are expected to suit up after limited practice sessions on Friday. This includes LB Rashan Gary (concussion), OL Elgton Jenkins (knee), along with WRs Sammy Watkins (hamstring) and Christian Watson (hamstring).
Buffalo will be without OL Spencer Brown (ankle), CB Tre’Davious White (knee) and S Micah Hyde (neck). Running back and special-teamer Taiwan Jones (knee) is questionable.
Green Bay Packers: 18.0 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic fantasy projections have been brutally honest with Aaron Rodgers in Week 8 and he is the QB23 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. For perspective, rookie Sam Ehlinger who is making his first start, Russell Wilson who may be cooked and the embattled Mac Jones are all ranked above him.
Buffalo has earned the sixth best passing DVOA per Football Outsiders allowing only five aerial scores in six games with 10 interceptions. Rodgers is of course the two-time reigning NFL MVP, though it is clear he is missing Davante Adams who is now in Las Vegas. Allen Lazard (shoulder) is out this week, which further depletes the pass catching options available for Rodgers. Mr. Discount Doublecheck has not thrown for more than 260 yards in any of his seven appearances and it is likely that the Packers extend their slide to four consecutive losses.
Running Back
A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones are as talented as any other running back pairing in the league. However, a shoddy offensive line and weak passing game has allowed opposing defenses to key on the rushing game. Only twice this season has this duo combined for more than 100 rushing yards and they have only five touchdowns on the season.
Dillon and Jones are capable rushers and receivers, but it is hard to be excited for them against the Buffalo rushing defense which rates out as the best in the league. No other Green Bay running backs have offensive touches on the season. The Bills are allowing 76.2 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry, both marks are tops in the NFL this season.
Wide Receiver
Rookie Romeo Doubs and veteran Sammy Watkins will do their best to fill in the void left by Adams and Lazard. This is somewhat of a homecoming for Watkins who was the fourth overall selection by the Bills in the 2014 NFL Draft. It is fun looking back at the 2015 Buffalo roster which had Watkins, Robert Woods, Chris Hogan, Percy Harvin, Marquise Goodwin, LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor in a Pro Bowl season.
Fast-forward back to present day and we have Watkins who is dealing with a hamstring injury and the inexperienced Doubs suiting up to take on a dragon of a defense in Buffalo. They do have favorable salaries on DraftKings and to a lesser extent on FanDuel, but neither projects for double-digit fantasy points, even in full-PPR scoring formats. Christian Watson (hamstring) and Amari Rodgers round out the receiver room with Samori Toure the next man up if Watkins or Watson cannot shack their respective hamstring issues.
Tight End
Buffalo has not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season and only Travis Kelce has logged more than 44 receiving yards. Robert Tonyan is a solid play and in his last three games he has 17 receptions for 145 yards. Tonyan and elder statesman Marcedes Lewis each have one touchdown on the season. Tyler Davis and Josiah Deguara should be on the field for a combined 15 snaps and each has six targets through seven games.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo has allowed just two sacks in their last three games, though the Bills have allowed 10 turnovers which is the ninth most in the league. Green Bay has only five takeaways which is the second fewest this season and the Packers are averaging just over two sacks per tilt.
Buffalo Bills: 29.0 Points
Quarterback
Josh Allen is on the short list for the MVP this season and he continues to be a phenomenal fantasy option. Heck, even as the most expensive option in the player pool, he is still the top point per dollar play on FanDuel and he is behind only the salary depressed duo of Doubs and Watkins on DraftKings. Allen leads the league with 330.0 passing yards per game which is 21 more than Patrick Mahomes. His 17 passing touchdowns are the second most in the league and he is contributing 42.8 rushing yards per game as well.
Running Back
Green Bay has the second worst rushing DVOA, though the 11th best passing DVOA. Regardless, this by no means should funnel the Bills into running the ball as they have the best offensive passing DVOA and the fourth worst rushing DVOA. When Buffalo does take to the ground, it should be efficient as the Packers are allowing 139.6 rushing yards per game.
In two of the last three games, Devin Singletary has been on the field for 82% or more of the offensive plays. Rookie James Cook may have supplanted Zack Moss, though outside of mop up duty, it is hard to envision either seeing more than a dozen snaps and half a dozen opportunities. Fullback Reggie Gilliam should be on the field around one-third of the time and see a couple targets. He does not have a carry this season and he has only three across 329 career snaps.
There is a slight chance that either Moss or Cook may be inactive if veteran Taiwan Jones is healthy enough to be employed on special teams. That would open the door for whichever option suits up as they would be the clear RB2 and at no risk to lose out on carries to Gilliam or Jones.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs has a team high 64 targets, which is one less than the next three most targeted wideouts. Only Tyreek Hill is averaging more targets this season. This duo is also one-two in receiving yards per game with Hill slightly ahead 110.4 to 109.3 and Justin Jefferson a tick behind at 109.0. Gabe Davis has been wildly efficient turning his 26 targets into 14 catches and four scores with a 27.4-yard average. Jamison Crowder is out with a broken ankle, so veteran Isaiah McKenzie and rookie Khalil Shakir will round out three-wide receiver sets.
Tight End
Allen loves throwing to the tight end position, and it was not until last season that Dawson Knox was able to consolidate all of the production. However, in Week 5 when Knox was out, Quintin Morris saw five targets and essentially stepped right into the lead role. Knox of course has the edge in playing time with a 75/25 split, but we should not count out Morris as a $200 option on DraftKings.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo has multiple sacks in every game, and they are in the top five for that category. Green Bay allows just over two sacks per game, but in catchup mode we could easily see four or more. On the turnover front, the Packers have nine on the season while the Bills have 13 which is the third most in the league.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy For Packers-Bills
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 8 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings For Packers-Bills
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Josh Allen: Captain my Captain!
- Stefon Diggs: Nine or more opportunities in all but one outing, second in the league with 64 targets.
- Aaron Jones: Appears to have the upper hand with Dillon, Buffalo defense will be ready.
- Devin Singletary: He has consolidated all of the backfield opportunities and there is nothing the Green Bay defense can do about it.
- Romeo Doubs: Got blanked on four targets against Washington, DraftKings algorithm has him down to $4,000, he would head up the Secondary section on FanDuel at $11,500.
- Aaron Rodgers: Maybe volume will get him there, because efficiency certainly has not thus far.
- Gabe Davis: Can score from anywhere on the field, needs to at this salary.
- Tyler Bass: Salary savings and homefield advantage, has not attempted any from 50 or more yards this season as his offense is soooooo effective, 6 of 10 from that range in his career.
- Sammy Watkins: Ridiculous $2,600 salary on DraftKings and a fine discount at $7,000 on FanDuel.
- Dawson Knox: Always a threat in the red zone.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Packers-Bills
- A.J. Dillon: The opportunity pendulum could easily swing back in his direction.
- Mason Crosby: 38-year-old is still accurate inside 45 yards, zero field goal attempts in three of seven games this year with the sporadic offense.
- Robert Tonyan: Only two games with more than four targets.
- Buffalo D/ST: Decent play on FanDuel ($9,500), tougher to get to on DraftKings ($5,400)
- Isaiah McKenzie and Khalil Shakir: Coinflip, McKenzie returns punts, Shakir handles kickoffs.
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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Packers-Bills
- Green Bay D/ST: Will be on the field a lot.
- James Cook: There could be mop up duty in this matchup.
- Reggie Gilliam: Should see a couple of targets, though they may not be of the high value variety.
- Christian Watson: Great salary saver, would rate higher if he were not dealing with a hamstring issue.
- Samori Toure: Jumps to the top of this section if Watson is inactive.
- Amari Rodgers: Returns punts and kickoffs, could meander his way into a target or two on offense.
- Quintin Morris, Marcedes Lewis, Tyler Davis, Tommy Sweeney and Josiah Deguara: Backup tight ends aka the single-slate warriors.
- Zack Moss: Strong chance he is inactive, hard to see him ahead of Allen, Singletary, Knox and Diggs for red zone touches even if he suits up.
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